Hayes: JJ McCarthy promised Michigan would be back -- and delivered. Can he deliver a national title, too?
The fact that Jim Harbaugh knows of what he speaks, and that he’s occasionally ridiculously overboard, can coexist in the same world of “what if?”
That was Harbaugh, Michigan’s quirky yet wildly successful coach, proclaiming after the Rose Bowl win over Alabama that JJ McCarty was the greatest quarterback in school history.
Weeks earlier, Harbaugh declared McCarthy was the quarterback all others would be compared to at Michigan. A rare level of winner.
That he would follow McCarthy “to hell and back.”
That McCarthy — whose most impressive numbers in 2 years as the starting quarterback at Michigan is a 26-1 record, not outlandish statistics — is a future franchise quarterback in the NFL.
“I know we talk about it, an amalgamation of quarterbacks,” Harbaugh said after the Rose Bowl. “(McCarthy) is that guy.”
Before we go further, understand that Harbaugh not only has a track record of developing elite quarterbacks in the college and pro games (see: Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick), but winning championships at both levels.
If anyone can safely and securely state that a quarterback is rare, and that his future is the face of an NFL franchise, it’s Harbaugh. But when?
When does McCarthy, whose junior season hasn’t exactly translated to unquestioned 1st-round talent — according to multiple NFL scouts who spoke to Saturday Tradition — make the move to elite?
After the Playoff National Championship Game against Washington — or after a senior season in 2024?
“He’s a long way from a finished product,” an NFL scout said. “An absolute talent, but there are questions that remain.”
The long road back
He sat at the Fiesta Bowl dais a year ago, those 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns like a scarlet “Pick-6” on his chest.
Heavily-favored Michigan — a team that pointed all season to getting 1 more shot at Georgia after the embarrassment of a 2021 Playoff semifinal — was staring at failure again. This time to TCU in a Playoff semifinal, a game that started poorly and got worse, and now somehow, McCarthy was staring into the nothingness of a postgame press conference.
The same nothingness he stood and watched on the field minutes earlier.
The first question came, and McCarthy — a glazed look over his face — briefly summed up what happened.
“We fought our hearts out,” he said. “There were a lot of things we could’ve done better. But we will be back. I promise that.”
He stood up from the table, turned and walked out of the interview session. His own version of the Tebow Promise.
Now here we are, a year later — and after his growth on the field and in the position hasn’t been matched by mere statistics because of the offense Michigan runs — and he has 1 more chance to make it right.
The offense begins and ends with the running of bruising tailback Blake Corum, and the philosophy of winning games around a stout defense. It’s old school, and at this point — despite the obvious trend in the college game to throw vertically — you can’t argue with it.
Michigan has won 26 of 27 games since McCarthy won the starting job in Week 2 of the 2022 season. A year earlier, Michigan got to the 2021 Playoff semifinals (see: Georgia embarrassment) playing the same way, and with a caretaker quarterback (Cade McNamara) who won 12 of 14 games.
So yeah, they’re not changing what they do or how they do it. But there’s something different about this season, an undeniable quarterback threat that has developed and matured and become as much reliable as dynamic and dangerous — outside of the ground-and-pound offensive philosophy.
“JJ makes them go because he’s the guy that can hurt you if you load up to take away the run,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator told Saturday Tradition. “They’re not difficult to figure out up front. Alabama did it and played well enough against the run to win. But when you bring more than they can block to stop the run, you leave your back end in man (coverage). He exposes it because he’s accurate and because he knows the game. That’s the key, his football IQ.”
It’s also his place, his fit, in the offense. He’s not throwing the ball 30-35 times a game, but he is making critical throws when down and distance demands it.
Like the missile of a throw to Roman Wilson on 3rd-and-10 against Ohio State — into double coverage where only Wilson could catch it — for a 22-yard TD and a statement in the biggest game of the season. You want to load up to stop Corum (which Ohio State did with some success), we’re coming at you with McCarthy.
Or the big throws against Alabama — all critical progression reads — that either set up touchdowns, and/or became any of his 3 touchdown passes.
— The off-schedule, off-platform 19-yard throw on the roll to the left (and throwing over his body) to Kalel Mullings (dropped between the cornerback and safety) to extend the first scoring drive. Two plays later, a formational set confused Alabama, and McCarthy simply waited for Corum to leak out of the backfield and clear coverage for an 8-yard TD pass.
— The 3 throws on the second scoring drive of the game, when McCarthy threw between triple coverage to TE Colston Loveland for 11 yards to extend the drive. A play later, Michigan tried a double pass, and Donovan Edwards’ pass back to McCarthy was high and wide, and McCarthy leaped and grabbed the ball 1-handed. Off-balance and with Tide LB Dallas Turner closing quickly, McCarthy avoided a potentially disastrous play and quickly threw down field for a 20-yard completion to wideout Roman Wilson.
Two plays later, on 3rd-and-10, with Alabama rushing 4 and dropping 7, Michigan again ran a combination route with a running back (Edwards) leaking out of the backfield and setting up a crossing route with WR Tyler Morris. McCarthy waited on the route to develop, and hit Morris in stride. With Alabama out of position (again), Morris beat the defense to the boundary for a 38-yard touchdown.
— On Michigan’s last drive of regulation — while trailing 20-13 and its previous 4 drives in the 2nd half accounting for 44 yards and no points — McCarthy hit 3 big throws to extend the drive.
The first was to Corum on 4th-and-2 from the Michigan 33, where Michigan used a bunch formation to confuse the Alabama defense (again) and leaked Corum to the perimeter (again) for a critical 17-yard gain.
A play after running 16 yards on a zone-read keeper (which nearly turned into a 50-yard touchdown run because of his athleticism and speed), McCarthy hit Wilson — who had cleared underneath on a dig after the Alabama secondary was confused from another formational shift in a bunch set. The motion gave Wilson a free release at the line of scrimmage, leaving him eventually unaccounted for in a high-low concept throw that gained 29-yards.
Two plays later, McCarthy hit Wilson in the left flat — after a speed motion prior to the snap gave him a free release to the flat with Alabama focusing on the run after play-action — for the game-tying touchdown.
Corum had a big touchdown run on overtime, the defense got a final stop — and McCarthy’s declaration a year earlier was halfway home. A win in the semifinal, a date in the national championship game.
“That last drive, play-calling, managing the game, decision-making by the quarterback, was just phenomenal,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “I haven’t seen Alabama that confused by formations and motion — all game, really — in maybe ever. You have that, and a hot quarterback who knows where to go with the ball, that’s lethal.”
Growth and the future
McCarthy’s growth in 2023 — as a patient, not panicked, thrower — has played out over and over this season.
He has always had the arm talent. He has always had the ability to throw accurately, his percentage drastically improving over the past 3 seasons from 57% as a freshman, to 64 in 2022, to 73 in 2023.
What would it look like if he threw the ball 504 times like Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.? Would he excel in a pass-heavy offense?
Make no mistake, the NFL is a pass-heavy league. You win at the highest level of football with efficiency in the passing game.
McCarthy has avoided all talk about the NFL, or if he would return to Michigan for his senior season. In December, Harbaugh sought out McCarthy to talk about his future, and McCarthy said he was only interested in Alabama.
Now he’s only interested in Washington, again deferring questions. But what exactly is his professional future?
“Someone will take him on Day 1, I don’t think there’s any question about that,” a second NFL scout told Saturday Tradition. “He’ll use the Combine and his Pro Day workouts to show the arm talent, and he’ll crush the interview process. We talk all the time about your tape is your resume, but it’s not all that for (the quarterback) position.”
Exhibit A is Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who struggled in 1 season as a starter at Florida and had numerous flaws on tape. But his post-college workouts and interviews moved a freakishly athletic quarterback with arm talent all the way into the top 5 of last year’s draft.
McCarthy clearly doesn’t have the rare size and athleticism of Richardson, but his speed in the run game and arm strength are similar. His accuracy is better. He has a quick, short release, and can change ball speed easily and accurately.
But McCarthy played in an offense over the past 2 seasons where he wasn’t the first option, and for a team with a stout defense that erases mistakes — in a conference that provided little resistance outside of 1 game per season.
Is that enough to overlook a rare athlete who can throw off platform and off schedule with various release points, and who can put defenses in conflict with his ability to run and throw on the run?
“Evaluations aren’t always about numbers,” a third NFL scout told Saturday Tradition. “It’s the position, and it’s the repetitions. It’s understanding the passing game conceptually, which he clearly does. But you’re talking about a guy who has less than 700 attempts in 3 seasons. That’s why this last month of the season has been so important for him. He’s showing what he can do when Michigan needs him.”
He made big plays against Ohio State and followed that with maybe his best game in the Rose Bowl. Now here comes Washington, another big moment for McCarthy — and another opportunity to separate from the rest of the quarterbacks headed to April’s NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams of USC and Drake Maye of North Carolina are generally considered the top 2 quarterbacks in the draft. After that, there’s a group of quarterbacks who could move to the No. 3 spot — which more than likely would translate to a top 10-15 pick.
Most NFL personnel assume both Harbaugh and McCarthy will leave for the NFL after this season — especially if Michigan wins the national championship. The NCAA is closing in on Harbaugh, and there would be nothing left for McCarthy to prove.
He would’ve led Michigan to its first national championship since 1997, and would become — in Harbaugh’s or any evaluation — the greatest quarterback in Michigan history.
There’s nothing overboard about that.