JJ McCarthy in the NFL Draft: Bettors like Michigan QB as top-5 pick
JJ McCarthy has been one of the biggest storylines of the leadup to the 2024 NFL Draft. The Michigan quarterback’s draft stock surged with impressive performances at the NFL Scouting Combine and his U-M Pro Day.
McCarthy went from being under the radar not too long ago to being linked to the No. 2 overall pick just last month.
In one week, the 2024 NFL Draft will begin with Round 1 on Thursday, April 25. So which team will draft the national champion QB from Michigan?
BetMGM data shared with Saturday Tradition that showed some interesting numbers. With a wide-open field, McCarthy is the sportsbook’s most bet player at back-to-back picks.
For BetMGM, McCarthy is a big liability at No. 4 or No. 5 overall.
4th Overall Pick
- Highest Ticket%: J.J. McCarthy 33.2%
- Highest Handle%: J.J. McCarthy 54.6%
- Biggest Liability: J.J. McCarthy
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Favorite: Marvin Harrison Jr. -200
McCarthy has 33.2% of bets to be the No. 4 pick for 54.6% of the handle (money bet). McCarthy’s old rival, Marvin Harrison Jr., has the best odds to be selected at No. 4. The Arizona Cardinals hold the No. 4 pick, but could make a trade.
McCarthy at No. 4 is trending upward from an odds perspective. He opened at +1400 and his pricing is now down to just +250, which means a $100 bet would pay $250 for a $350 payout.
Player | Opening Odds | Last Weeks Odds | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
J.J. McCarthy | +1400 | +300 | +250 | 33.2% | 54.6% |
5th Overall Pick
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Highest Ticket%: J.J McCarthy 25.3%
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Highest Handle%: J.J McCarthy 28.6%
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Biggest Liability: J.J McCarthy
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Favorite: Malik Nabers +210
BetMGM won’t be off the hook if McCarthy doesn’t go fourth. He’s still the book’s biggest liability for the No. 5 overall pick. The bets are a bit more spread out, with McCarthy on 25.3% of the tickets for 28.6% of the handle. LSU WR Malik Nabers has the best odds to go No. 5 overall at +210.
McCarthy’s odds at fifth overall have experienced a similar trend. He opened at +1200 and is now +400. Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers hold the No. 5 pick, which could be traded to a team looking for a QB.
Player | Opening Odds | Last Week | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
J.J. McCarthy | +1200 | +450 | +400 | 25.3% | 28.6% |
Bets on team to draft J.J. McCarthy
Bettors like McCarthy as a top-5 pick, but which team will make the call? BetMGM’s odds and betting data paint an interesting picture.
The Minnesota Vikings are the current favorite, priced at +115 by BetMGM. The Vikings, who hold the No. 11 pick, have the highest percentage of bets at 19.1% of the tickets.
Minnesota isn’t the team with the most money bet on drafting McCarthy. Denver has the highest percentage of the handle at 20.3%, topping the Vikings (14.4%), Giants (15.9%) and Patriots (18.1%).
As for that Commanders report last month? Just 6.7% of bets for 5% of the handle is on Washington being the team to draft McCarthy. The Commanders are currently priced at +900.
Team | Opening Odds | Last Week | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
Minnesota Vikings | +500 | +100 | +115 | 19.1% | 14.4% |
New England Patriots | +1000 | +350 | +220 | 16.7% | 18.1% |
New York Giants | +3000 | +400 | +500 | 15.3% | 15.9% |
Denver Broncos | +500 | +700 | +800 | 14.8% | 20.3% |
Las Vegas Raiders | +600 | +1200 | +1300 | 7.2% | 5.5% |
Washington Commanders | +1600 | +750 | +900 | 6.7% | 5.0% |
Los Angeles Chargers | +4000 | +6000 | +6000 | 6.7% | 2.8% |
Seattle Seahawks | +1000 | +1400 | +1400 | 5.7% | 10.4% |
Chicago Bears | +4000 | +5000 | +6600 | 2.9% | 6.3% |
New Orleans Saints | +2000 | +5000 | +8000 | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Arizona Cardinals | +6600 | +6600 | +12500 | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3000 | +5000 | +5000 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Tennessee Titans | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Detroit Lions | +4000 | +8000 | +15000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Los Angeles Rams | +1600 | +10000 | +10000 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Dallas Cowboys | +6600 | +10000 | +10000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Cleveland Browns | +1000 | +15000 | +15000 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
We’ll see how it all plays out in a week!