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Jim Harbaugh can turn on Illinois’ film for a better look at what makes the Illini dangerous.
He can watch hours of tape on running back Chase Brown. On quarterback Tommy DeVito. On the defense led by Ryan Walters, who could be a name to watch this head coaching cycle.
That’s one way Harbaugh and Michigan can prep for their noon kickoff against the Fighting Illini. Another? He can look at his own roster and see parallels between the programs.
Take out the record. Take off the jerseys. Look at the programs head-on and nothing else. Michigan and Illinois mirror each other in nearly every area.
Both rely heavily on their leading rusher. They both put faith in their defenses to get critical stops. DeVito and UM’s JJ McCarthy have shown flashes in terms of passing, but neither has been “the guy” that’s elevated the roster.
Does this make Saturday’s matchup a trap game? Does it give the Wolverines an advantage? In a sense, both things can be true. Should Michigan’s deep-ball struggles continue while Illinois’ passing attack improves, expect this to be a slow burn to the finish line. If the same flaws are on the page for both parties, perhaps the game is over by halftime.
Stats don’t lie
Similar concepts won’t be enough to sell fans on how close the programs match each other. Stats often can lie, but they also can provide a blueprint as to what each team brings to the table.
Michigan leads the B1G in rushing behind the combination of Heisman candidate Blake Corum and standout secondary option Donovan Edwards. Currently, the Wolverines are 4th nationally in rushing (251.4 yards per game) and 12th in rushing attempts (447).
Illinois, headlined by FBS-leading rusher Chase Brown, ranks 4th among B1G teams in rushing and 3rd in attempts per game. Nationally, the Illini are 40th in rushing (183.6 yards per game) but 13th in attempts, trailing the Wolverines by 2 carries.
Both offenses use their ground game as the backbone to put up points. Brown leads the nation with 1,442 rushing yards. He also has 9 games of over 100 rushing yards, 6 of which have come against conference opponents. Corum, who ranks 3rd nationally in rushing yards (1,349), has 7 straight games of 100+ rushing yards, all in B1G play.
Brown is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Corum is averaging 5.9. Both are physical in the trenches, but also have that burst needed in the open field for massive gains. The biggest difference between the two? Carries and scores. Brown has 53 more carries (280-227) than Corum, while the latter has 10 more touchdowns (17-7) than the former.
The offensive correlation doesn’t stop there. Both teams have failed to capitalize with red zone touchdowns. This season, the Wolverines have converted for TDs 37 of 55 times (67.3%), while the Illini have converted on 19 of 44 (43.2%) attempts. The biggest difference has come in the form of points as a whole, as Michigan kicker Jake Moody has provided an extra element with his leg.
Defensively, fans likely couldn’t tell the difference in terms of resumes between the two. Michigan ranks No. 1 in total defense (232.8 yards per game) while Illinois is 2nd (246.9 yards per game). The Wolverines are No. 1 in defending the run (72.7 yards per game). The Illini are 6th (85.9 yards per game).
In terms of pass defense, 0.9 yards separate the schools (160.1-161.0 yards per game in favor of the Wolverines). And in scoring, Michigan is allowing 1.3 points less than Illinois (11.2-12.5). Both teams have also allowed fewer than 10 touchdowns in the red zone through 21 attempts or fewer.
See similarities?
A trap game in the making?
After dropping back-to-back games against Michigan State and Purdue, the Illini must win out, and hope for a loss by the Boilermakers, to win the B1G West. Michigan, which is 10-0 for the first time since 2006, will need to win out just to qualify as the B1G East representative.
That’s what happens when Ohio State also remains undefeated entering Thanksgiving. Even if the Buckeyes were to look lost against Maryland, they’d have the head-to-head win over the Wolverines, giving them the nod.
Even with the Illini’s mishaps, Saturday’s outing will be the toughest test for the Wolverines this season. In reality, Michigan is playing itself. Both teams are great at holding offenses from 3rd-down conversions and both have struggled to connect with the vertical passing attack.
Maybe Saturday should be viewed as a test to justify the Wolverines’ status as top dogs in the B1G. If they can beat a lesser version of themselves with ease, can anyone beat them in 2022?
Cole Thompson is a freelance writer for Saturday Tradition who has covered college football and the NFL for multiple websites. Thompson is currently based in Houston, Texas, and also can be heard daily on SportsMap National Radio's 'Just Sayin It' from 3am-6am.