Michigan football: Wolverines’ defense is in familiar territory … but can it sustain?

Michigan has the No. 6-ranked scoring defense in college football, allowing 12.6 points per game. In years past, even going back to 2014 and 2015, the Wolverines have typically registered some nice numbers on the defensive side of the ball.

Giving up fewer than 2 TDs per game has become familiar throughout the first half or three-quarters of seasons  …  and then levies break and everything falls apart — and that’s a direct reference to important matchups, rivalries and bowl games.

OK, we’ll just say it: It’s also a direct reference to Ohio State, which has embarrassed the Wolverines, who’ve lost every game to the Buckeyes since 2011. And since 2012, OSU has put up at least 42 points in 5 of the 8 meetings.

This Saturday, the No. 9-ranked Wolverines face Nebraska, which has the No. 6-ranked scoring offense in the Big Ten, averaging 32.2 points per game, good for No. 50 nationally.

To say that the Huskers will be a test for Michigan is obvious. The game will be played in Lincoln and it’ll be at night. Winning 5 in a row is an accomplishment, but starting 6-0 would further put UM in the discussion of the Big Ten’s best squads.

It’s still early in the season, and a lot of teams have similar stats. The real division between the good, decent and the bad will be determined within the next couple of weeks.

As of now, opponents are converting roughly 35 percent of third-down situations. In order to be in the current top 10, Michigan — No. 50 nationally in that category — would need that number to drop to around 28 percent. So needless to say, the Wolverines’ defense needs a couple of consecutive dominant efforts to reach elite status.

Michigan has put the opposition in 10 fourth-down scenarios tempting enough to go for, and has allowed 4 conversions. That’s not going to cut it for a team that strives to finish among the best defensive units in the country. If the Wolverines want to be in the top 10 in that category, they’ll have to cut that in half.

In terms of passing defense, Michigan has given up 170 yards per game, putting it at No. 16 in the nation and No. 3 in the Big Ten. However, the Wolverines have given up 9 TDs through the air, tied for second-most in the league with Wisconsin and Indiana.

One or two stops per game make a difference. They all accumulate and end up telling a story at the end of the season.

Numbers have been about even in regard to 1st downs. Out of the 80 firsts achieved by the other side, UM has given up 35 via run,  37 via pass and 8 via penalty. UM is ranked No. 25 in opponent first downs, and only 3 Big Ten teams have allowed fewer firsts: Wisconsin (46), Purdue (71) and Iowa (75).

Back during the days of Greg Mattison as defensive coordinator, being among the top 5 or so teams in total defense was the norm — even after losses to Ohio State. The same was true under Don Brown, who had 4 top-10 defenses during his time in Ann Arbor.

Sustainability throughout the entire season will be the key for Michigan, not just doing so for 9 or 10 weeks.

And that’s the major question: Can the Wolverines finish the defensive race? Lately, they’ve been able to spring their way onto the leader board. And yes, they’ve often remained there even after blowout losses to the Buckeyes. But that’s just by crunching numbers, which doesn’t always provide an adequate measurement.

Another good barometer is red zone defense. However, that hasn’t always applied to Michigan for one reason: When a team gives up fewer than a pair of TDs per game, that means that opposing teams aren’t getting inside the 20-yard line.

This past weekend, Wisconsin was 2-for-2 in the red zone but lost 38-17. Rutgers went 2-for-3 and lost 20-13. Northern Illinois was 2-for-2 but lost 63-10. Western Michigan was 1-for-1 but was easily disposed of by the tune of 47-14. During Week 1, Washington knocked down a 28-yard field goal — meaning that drive stalled out at the 11.

Anyhow, the Huskies lost 38-10.

Michigan has star power on its defense. DE Aidan Hutchinson and LBs Josh Ross and David Ojabo have all helped their team establish a strong defensive identity through the first 5 weeks.

With Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State lurking later this season, it’s possible that Michigan’s current sparkling numbers could take a quick tumble. Those will be the games in which UM’s defense will really earn its stripes.

But shutting down Nebraska would be a pretty good start. The Huskers just ran through Northwestern 56-7 and have eclipsed the 50-point mark twice this year. Granted, the first time was a 52-7 Week 1 win over Fordham … but still.

Impressive defensive stats have been a staple of Michigan football during the past decade. But numbers are only numbers if they don’t translate into solid performances when it matters most.

Will Michigan sustain its defensive prowess? That’s a question that will be continued to be asked throughout the rest of the season, or until a team puts up mega points and yardage totals, effectively “exposing” a paper tiger.

Adam Biggers

Adam Biggers brings his expertise on the Michigan beat to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.