Before you start (again), stop.

I’m talking to you, person who insists that if Jim Harbaugh doesn’t beat Ohio State this year that he’ll be fired.

I’ve got a lot of questions for you. For starters, don’t you get bored? Like, doesn’t repeating that take year after year get a little stale? It’s got to be frustrating to make the same take every year, only to watch it fall flat when (gasp), Harbaugh keeps his job.

You see, my take on Harbaugh is one that I’ve made year after year but it actually has truth behind it. Putting him on the hot seat is silly. Super silly.

Harbaugh isn’t on the only hot seat that matters. That is, his boss, Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel. You know, the guy who actually makes that decision.

We’re nearly a year removed from Manuel saying that Harbaugh’s $7.5 million yearly salary was “worth every dime.” We’re 5 months removed from Manuel again repeating that he wants Harbaugh to retire at Michigan. It was the same thing Manuel said after Michigan’s disappointing 2017 season that saw the Wolverines finish unranked and with 8 wins. That, of course, was the only time that Harbaugh failed to win double-digit games during his 4 seasons at Michigan.

Here’s a list of Power 5 teams with double-digit wins in at least 3 of the last 4 years:

  • Ohio State
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
  • Oklahoma
  • Oklahoma State
  • Alabama
  • Georgia
  • Washington
  • Clemson

That’s not a long list, people. And are any of those coaches on the hot seat? No.

Before you tell me that Michigan hasn’t beat anyone during that stretch because of the struggles vs. top 10 teams, it’s worth noting that Harbaugh has 8 wins against Top 25 teams in that stretch, which is actually only 1 fewer than Georgia and 2 fewer than Washington (I also know that getting to a Playoff puts those teams ahead of Michigan but the belief that the Wolverines never beat quality teams is a bit much).

I get that it’s Michigan and the standard for winning is a wee bit different than it is at Rutgers but goodness. At the same time, the Wolverines have had consecutive top-10 seasons once in the last 25 years. Are we really saying that someone who has a 26-9 mark in B1G play with an 8-1 mark last year is coaching for his job this year? We shouldn’t be.

And even if it’s not the top priority for a head coach to make sure the seats are filled, Michigan is still No. 1 in college football in average home attendance. I say “still” because that’s been the case every year that Harbaugh has been at Michigan. The program had the second-biggest year-to-year attendance boost of any Power 5 school back in 2015 when Harbaugh started.

On the bright side, at least the “Harbaugh’s never finished better than third place in his own division” crowd could move on after last year’s 8-1 record in conference play.

And how many games has Harbaugh coached as a Top 15 team? That would be 33 of a possible 52. Compare that to 7 for Brady Hoke during the 4 years that preceded Harbaugh. Better yet, compare it to 0 for Rich Rodriguez or 29 in the final 4 years of the Lloyd Carr era.

But sure, let’s fire up these tweets:

A lot of this is me just trying to get out ahead of the hot seat discussion before it picks up again this season. If you need confirmation that people actually believe Harbaugh is coaching for his job this year, wait until Michigan is trailing at any point in a game this year. Go on Twitter and search “Harbaugh hot seat.” If it’s in the second half of ANY game, oh boy. There aren’t enough fire emojis in the world for that take.

“But what about Ohio State? How can Michigan just accept a coach who can’t beat the Buckeyes?”

Let’s call it what it is. Harbaugh couldn’t beat Urban Meyer, AKA the coach who had the best conference winning percentage in B1G history. That guy. It’ll always be a blemish on Harbaugh’s résumé even if he beats Ryan Day in Year 1 in Columbus.

Does Harbaugh need to beat Ohio State in order to be considered an elite coach in college football? Obviously. But there’s a difference in doing something that’ll help public perception and recruiting, as opposed to whether it’ll be the thing that ends his time in Ann Arbor.

It’s because of that Ohio State streak that Michigan hasn’t been able to reach the B1G Championship, too.

(Nobody really brings up that Michigan beat both 2016 B1G Championship participants and that the Wolverines beat the West winner and went 8-1 in B1G play in 2018, which was tied for the best conference record of any Power 5 team with a 9-game conference schedule. That also included a 62-14 advantage against ranked Penn State and Michigan State teams. But I digress.)

But while winning a conference title for the first time since 2004 is the expectation, it’s not the ultimatum. There’s a distinct difference between those two things. I cannot stress that enough.

And as for the whole “he’s going back to the NFL thing,” I wouldn’t say it’ll never happen again. But would I bet on it? Nope. I can’t imagine that an unhappy Harbaugh would leave his alma mater to go back to the NFL to find happiness. I could only see that happening if he won a couple B1G Championships at Michigan and he felt after maybe a dozen years that he couldn’t get Michigan to a national title.

As for the near future as it relates to the NFL, it’s the same thing I said 3 years ago. He likes his control. He gets that at Michigan. Manuel even said that Harbaugh creates his own hot seat. He’s the one running things and putting pressure on himself.

That’s why it was such a major development that he turned control of his offense over to Josh Gattis. To me, that’s a sign that Harbaugh realized he had to change. The way his team finished the season was unacceptable, and it sparked that desire to rethink things. Harbaugh has flaws as a head coach, no doubt.

I’m not always crazy about everything he says, whether it’s calling out other coaches are calling out “the SEC cheaters.” But let’s be honest. If Harbaugh wins big, he’ll be more unfiltered than ever. We’re already seeing some shades of that heading into this year.

Expectations are high. That’s no secret. That’s why Michigan was picked to win the conference in the preseason media poll. This season will also likely determine just how rich Harbaugh’s extension is. He’s currently under contract through 2021, and in all likelihood, those negotiations will be ongoing throughout the season.

Beat Ohio State and win a B1G Championship and Harbaugh is looking at probably a raise with a new long-term deal. Fall short against the Buckeyes yet again and that new deal is probably still coming, though it might not be as lucrative.

Barring something wild happening this year — an Urban Meyer-like departure or something else wild that takes place off the field — your friend/that talking head predicting Harbaugh’s demise is going to be wrong. Again.

Well, check that. Your friend/that talking head predicting Harbaugh’s demise is already wrong.

But come late-November, I don’t think we’ll get a chance to see their hot seat scenario play out. Yes, I believe Michigan gets over the hump and beats Ohio State this year. No, I don’t say that every year.

“Warde Manuel isn’t firing Jim Harbaugh.”

Now there’s a sentence I’m getting tired of saying every year.