Slow starts for Michigan's offense could cost wins against Penn State, Ohio State
Ohio State’s CJ Stroud is that guy. He’s the guy that can take your breath away with 1 throw and ruin your season on the next. He’s the quarterback NFL general managers dream of getting their hands on, and the one veteran QBs fear joining their roster.
Yes, Stroud is that good. Ohio State is that talented. Until proven otherwise, it’s hard to imagine the battle for the B1G East going through anywhere but Columbus.
And therein lies the problem for Michigan. The Wolverines are a good team. They have good pieces on both sides of the ball. They’re sitting at 6-0 and remain in the top 5 of the AP Poll despite struggling early in their 31-10 victory over Indiana.
The difference between Ohio State and Michigan? Stroud. The Buckeyes have that guy and the Wolverines have JJ McCarthy, a close-to-the-vest type of quarterback who probably says “yes sir” and “no ma’am” to kids his age out of respect. He’s a rule follower, often following orders from Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh or offensive coordinators Sherone Moore and Matt Weiss.
Is that a problem? Maybe. McCarthy right now is simply trying to master playing quarterback in the B1G. Michigan isn’t testing him by opening up the playbook.
By mid-November, he either has it or he doesn’t. Stroud already does. The Buckeyes are a favorite to win the division and head back to Indianapolis in December.
No one is saying McCarthy is a dud. If one were to simply look at the stat line — 28-of-36 passing for 304 yards and 3 2nd-half touchdowns — one would say he’s a stud in the making.
Key words in that sentence: 2nd-half touchdowns. This has been a trend for McCarthy and the Wolverines’ offense. Over the past 3 games, Michigan has scored 1 2nd-quarter touchdown and just 4 1st-half touchdowns.
Take for instance Week 5’s win against Iowa. McCarthy’s longest play from scrimmage in the first half was a 29-yard pass to Andrel Anthony to set up a 35-yard field goal from Jake Moody. The 1st drive of the third quarter: 10 plays and 67 yards, capped off with a 12-yard touchdown pass to Donovan Edwards.
https://twitter.com/FTBeard7/status/1578814748086312960
This past weekend, McCarthy’s longest play from scrimmage in the first half was a 26-yard pass to Ronnie Bell in the 2nd quarter. The 1st drive of the 2nd half: 11 plays, 98 yards, 29-yard touchdown pass to Cornelius Johnson.
Teams like Iowa, Indiana and Maryland are pesky. The trio might not be good enough to make the College Football Playoff, but they’ll do enough to point out the flaws of pretenders that think they’re ready for postseason play.
The Wolverines are a balanced team. They can win through the air and beat you on the ground. Their defense can make enough stops to get the ball back to McCarthy and company.
And yes, they’re winning. They beat Maryland by 6, Iowa by 17 and Indiana by 21. If the season ended today, U-M would be going bowling. Based on the AP poll, the Wolverines would just miss out on the CFP.
Sluggish starts and balanced play-calling will work for Michigan against teams like Indiana. It won’t work against Penn State. It certainly won’t against Ohio State come Thanksgiving weekend. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has the Buckeyes playing inspired at the midway point of the season. Imagine a few more games under that defense’s belt.
Nice start with this early slate.
JJ McCarthy goes over 1.5 passing TDs vs Indiana. He goes 28-36 304 yards and 3 TDs
The Hoosiers have allowed every opposing QB to throw for 2+ passing TDs. pic.twitter.com/dCv6dSphqU
— Kevin Walsh Jr. (@TheKevinWalsh) October 8, 2022
Next week marks the first real test for the Wolverines in terms of contention status. Even with the game being in Ann Arbor, Penn State provides a 1-2 combination in its backfield and a plethora of offensive weapons for Sean Clifford and the passing attack.
In a tight-knit race for the B1G East title, slow starts can be the difference. For Michigan, a fast first half — and perhaps more aggressive play-calling — could be what keeps the program ahead in the division standings.
Stroud and the Buckeyes know how to play that game. Do McCarthy and the Wolverines?