Michigan’s theater program has turned out a remarkable 31 Emmy Award winners and more than a dozen Tony Award winners. Notable alums include legendary actor/voice James Earl Jones, legendary playwright Arthur Miller, and character actress Margo Martindale.

Even with that storied pedigree, one could argue that Michigan’s football program is producing more compelling drama these days — or at least it felt like that was the case at multiple junctures in a wild offseason.

It began with a sequel — Jim Harbaugh showing interest in an NFL coaching job. A year after interviewing for the Minnesota Vikings vacancy, Harbaugh had a pair of January meetings with Denver Broncos brass. And for the second straight year, Harbaugh decided he was still a Michigan Man.

But unlike last year, that wasn’t the end of the offseason shenanigans.

Michigan dismissed co-offensive coordinator Matt Weiss after he was suspected of “inappropriately accessing computer accounts” on campus. The case hasn’t resulted in criminal charges, but Harbaugh still washed his hands of Weiss, promoting analyst Kirk Campbell to quarterbacks coach.

It was not the only abrupt staff firing. Harbaugh hired Shemy Schembechler, son of Bo, as Michigan’s assistant recruiting director in May. Schembechler resigned just 3 days later when it was discovered that he promoted a multitude of undeniably racist social media posts.

In July, Yahoo Sports reported that Harbaugh was facing a 4-game suspension to open the season due to NCAA rules violations. But just this month, it was reported that the NCAA is no longer accepting that punishment, which amounted to a plea bargain. Now the issue is likely to be punted to next year, tentatively titled Michigan Offseason of Drama III: Here We Go Again.

But every one of these stories is effectively a red herring distracting from the real plotline: Michigan may be college football’s best team in 2023.

After 2 straight trips to the College Football Playoff, the Wolverines are primed to finally win the whole thing.

But will they get the job done?

That’ll depend on the following factors.

Will JJ McCarthy become JJ Mahomes?

JJ McCarthy supplanted Cade McNamara as Michigan’s starter after Week 2 last season. And though he clearly had a stronger arm and greater mobility, in many cases he was playing the position the same way as McNamara: a game manager asked to avoid trouble.

This season, Harbaugh is promising that the training wheels are coming off. At Big Ten Media Days, he went so far as to call his quarterback a “once in a generation” player and straight-up compared McCarthy to NFL greats Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

Though Harbaugh was focusing on McCarthy’s leadership traits with the comparison, he knows what he’s doing. He could have name-dropped a great leader who isn’t necessarily an elite talent if that’s all he was focused on.

If McCarthy is in fact that dude, then of course Michigan is a threat to win its first national title since 1997. Because that theoretically means the Wolverines could boast a borderline unstoppable offense.

The backfield tandem of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards is the best in the nation. The duo combined for 2,634 yards last season even though Corum missed the final 3 games due to injury.

Michigan should have the Big Ten’s best tight end tandem in Colston Loveland and Indiana transfer AJ Barner.

And thanks to the addition of veteran transfers Drake Nugent and LaDarius Henderson, Michigan may prove to have the nation’s top offensive line for the 3rd straight season.

Can anything keep the Wolverines from the CFP?

Quite a few things, actually — though certainly not the non-conference schedule, which is inexplicably the weakest in the B1G.

Once Big Ten play gets under way, though, a number of teams are capable of upsetting the Wolverines on any given Saturday — as Illinois came precariously close to doing last year.

Mike Locksley believes Maryland has its best team in his tenure, and the Terrapins came within a touchdown of Michigan in the Big House last year despite losing quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter. This year Michigan visits Maryland the week before the Ohio State game — a natural danger zone.

Penn State’s defensive front should be strong enough to avoid a repeat mauling from Michigan’s offensive line, and the Nittany Lions get the Wolverines in Happy Valley.

And for reasons that defy scientific explanation, even Rutgers has tested the Wolverines recently.

The Scarlet Knights took Michigan to 3 overtimes in 2020 and lost by a touchdown in 2021. Last year, Rutgers led Michigan at halftime — and then the Wolverines woke up and blistered the Knights with 38 unanswered points.

This year Rutgers is in the same place Maryland was last year — Michigan’s first capable opponent after 3 likely cakewalks. Thus, what should be an easy game on paper could be surprisingly tough, just like the Terps in 2022.

That’s to say nothing of the opponent in the regular-season finale. Though as last year showed, there is room for a pair of 1-loss Big Ten teams in the CFP. It will likely take a 2nd loss to keep Michigan out of the Playoff.

That seems quite improbable for a team that’s gone 17-1 in the B1G the past 2 seasons. But it’s not impossible.

Can Jim Harbaugh win The Big One?

Coming up short in The Big One has been a defining characteristic of Jim Harbaugh’s football life.

As a player, his signature play was an oh-so-close Hail Mary attempt that tumbled to the end zone turf at the end of the 1995 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.

He finally did reach the Super Bowl as a coach — only to lose the game to his brother John and the Baltimore Ravens.

Ohio State was the nut Harbaugh couldn’t crack in his first 5 seasons at Michigan. The Wolverines finally broke through in 2021 after he vowed to beat the Buckeyes or die trying.

Now that Ohio State is vanquished, it’s the College Football Playoff giving him problems.

Michigan didn’t belong on the same field as eventual national champion Georgia in 2021. But last year’s team was capable of hanging with the Dawgs — if only they made it that far. Michigan’s season again ended in the CFP semifinal, this time to an upstart TCU team.

This time it wasn’t a matter of personnel, but a game plan and in-game decisions that felt a bit too cute.  At times it felt as if Harbaugh panicked without Corum available to play.

The CFP is an expectation this season. And once we get there, the focus will turn to Harbaugh’s track record in the clutch.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: East Carolina (W)

Michigan should never take a Week 1 game against a North Carolina school for granted. That said, we should learn a lot about Michigan’s backfield behind Corum and Edwards by the end of this one.

Week 2: UNLV (W)

Former Missouri coach Barry Odom is in his first year leading the Rebels, who haven’t reached a bowl game since 2013. UNLV will learn the same lesson most Vegas visitors do — the (Big) House always wins.

Week 3: Bowling Green (W)

Former Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak leads a Bowling Green team that scored a surprising win at Minnesota 2 years ago. But he’s not leading a team that ranked 107th in total offense and 102nd in total defense last year to a win over Michigan. Maybe not even to a score.

Week 4: Rutgers (W)

For the first time in 2023, Michigan’s starters will need to play 60 minutes. Or at least 45 minutes. Greg Schiano has a habit of getting the best out of his team against the Wolverines, though the Scarlet Knights apparently flew too close to the sun in the first half of last year’s game.

Week 5: at Nebraska (W)

This is where things actually might start to get interesting. Matt Rhule will have the Huskers in a better place than they’ve been in years, and Michigan is hitting the road for the first time. Expect Nebraska to lead at the half, but watch it slip away as Michigan’s vast advantage in the trenches becomes evident.

Week 6: at Minnesota (W)

Harbaugh has had past troubles in rivalry games against Michigan State and Ohio State. But this old timey rivalry for the Little Brown Jug hasn’t been much of a challenge. He’s 3-0 against the Gophers with a pair of blowout wins over PJ Fleck. Michigan should roll.

Week 7: Indiana (W)

Jack Tuttle will throw a touchdown pass against his old team, because there will be little reason for McCarthy to play in the second half.

Week 8: at Michigan State (W)

Ideally, last year’s ugliness will be in the rearview mirror. Expect the Spartans to turn this into a dogfight rather than a tunnel fight. But Michigan’s talent advantage is too pronounced for Mel Tucker to improve to 3-1 against Harbaugh.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: Purdue (W)

Getting Purdue and Indiana at home feels almost as unfair as Michigan’s non-conference schedule. Ryan Walters had a pretty slick game plan against the Wolverines last year when he was Illinois’ defensive coordinator, though. Expect this to be Michigan’s lowest-scoring game, but still a win.

Week 11: at Penn State (W)

Most people have this circled as one of the Big Ten’s games of the year. But that seems to ask a lot of a Nittany Lions defensive front that was gashed for 418 rushing yards against Michigan last year. It should be closer than that 41-17 blowout, but Michigan is still built to run this team over.

Week 12: at Maryland (W)

The Terrapins will come closer to knocking off Michigan than Penn State. A road game the week before Ohio State? Trouble. Look for new kicker James Turner to help Michigan fans move on from the legend of Jake Moody with some late heroics.

Week 13: Ohio State (L)

The Wolverines haven’t taken 3 straight from the Bucks since 1997. And the Crystal Ball foresees Michigan’s flag plant at the center of Ohio Stadium being a move that brings some regrets this year. Time to kick off a new Ten Year War, starting here.

2023 Projection: 11-1 (8-1), 2nd in B1G East

#GoBlue

Anything short of a national championship will be met with disappointment at Michigan this season. The Wolverines themselves have made that clear, adding a “Beat Georgia” drill at the end of practice to go along with the previously established “Beat Ohio” drill.

With regards to expectation, Michigan is definitely back. Even though the Wolverines went without a national title from 1948-97, they were frequently in the conversation. Michigan had 8 top-5 finishes in the decades between championships. Harbaugh has brought them back to that place.

Now it’s time for him to finish the job. And provided the Wolverines finish 11-1 or better, the opportunity should present itself.

This is Harbaugh’s most dynamic Michigan offense. And a defense that was ravaged by graduation last year actually improved from 20th nationally in total defense and 8th in scoring defense to 5th in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Now it has 6 of those starters back and a pair of potential breakout sophomores in defensive tackle Mason Graham and cornerback Will Johnson.

If the passing game is where Harbaugh believes it to be, this team has no weaknesses that are apparent on paper. They’ll only be found by playing the games — provided any weaknesses even exist.