ESPN’s FPI has been updated following the Week 10 slate of games.

The Michigan State Spartans got a huge B1G win in Week 10 against Illinois. The win moved the Spartans to 4-5 on the season, inching closer to that 6-win bowl eligibility mark.

What does FPI say about the Spartans’ chance at landing a bowl bid after upsetting Illinois?

According to FPI, the Spartans have a 78.7% chance to reach 6 wins. With games against Rutgers, Indiana, and Penn State, the Spartans need to get 2 wins to become bowl-eligible.

FPI only gives the Spartans a 14.3% chance to win all 3, with Penn State projected to be sizeable favorites. The Spartans are projected by FPI to finish with a 6-6 record. Finishing 6-6 would be a disappointment compared to the team’s 2021 11-2 record, but a bowl appearance could salvage the season after a rough start.