Historical trend favors Nebraska in road matchup vs. Michigan State
So do you want to look at the trend, or the probability?
According to the trends, fans of Michigan State have cause for concern given the Spartans record when entering a game as a favorite at home. In its last 13 games as a home favorite, Michigan State has just a 1-12 record against the spread and have lost four games outright.
That’s according to data from ESPN’s Chris Fallica:
Michigan State is 1-12 ATS with four outright losses in its last 13 games as a home favorite…
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 23, 2021
Michigan State is currently a five-point favorite when they host Nebraska on Saturday in East Lansing.
Of course, that is the trend, but if you’re one of those who prefer to look at probability, those numbers should even out over time, right? The comparison is similar to having to face a lifetime .300 hitter in baseball who hasn’t had a hit in his last 20 at bats — the hits will be coming.
But who really knows?
The Spartans are 3-0 and coming off their biggest win of the season, a 38-17 road win over then No. 24 Miami. But Nebraska is coming in confident. While having lost 23-16 over No. 3 Oklahoma in Week 3, they put up a fight and gave the Sooners fits all day.
The opening odds for the game had the Spartans a four-point favorite, but the betting lines have recently moved to favor of MSU by five points.
Whether that’s a good thing for Spartans fans or not, remains to be seen — kickoff is set for 6:00PM Saturday, Sept 25.