Mel Tucker will need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. He might not be a fan of what stares back at him entering Year 4 at Michigan State.

What’s the problem with the Spartans?

They can win. That was proven behind the legs of Kenneth Walker III and a slightly-above-average defense that carried the program to a Peach Bowl victory a little over a year ago. Walker, who is now making the case for NFL Offensive Player of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks, was a difference-maker, but he wasn’t the only Michigan State player who factored into an 11-2 season in 2021.

Is it the play-calling? One year after posting their best record since 2015, the Spartans regressed, turning back into the “little brother of the B1G.” The offense looked befuddled. The defense was sliced and diced on the regular. Games that were chalked up to be “easy victories” were far from it, and the ups and downs ran wild.

Anyone remember the overtime win against Wisconsin? The double-overtime loss to Indiana, which only attempted 7 passes that afternoon? The comeback victory over Big Ten West favorite Illinois?

Michigan State needs an identity. Tucker needs a winning season. And no, 6-6 (never mind the 5-7 record in 2022) won’t cut it in East Lansing when one is making $95 million over the next decade. There have been 2 swing-and-miss seasons thus far in Tucker’s tenure and a 3rd might be the one that sends him packing.

Here are 10 questions Spartans fans should be watching for answers for entering the offseason:

1. Is Payton Thorne still QB1?

Thorne wasn’t the biggest problem for the Spartans last season en route to that 5-7 record. But he also did little to elevate the offense. Every week felt like a game of “Whac-A-Mole” since his arm would either lead the offense to multiple touchdowns or multiple turnovers.

For now, Thorne likely enters the offseason as QB1. That could change depending on the development of sophomore Noah Kim. Kim was far from perfect when taking reps with the 1st-team offense, but the Virginia native completed at least 60% of his throws in all 3 of his appearances. He threw 1 touchdown pass in each game and did not have a turnover.

Tucker might have a short leash on both passers with the addition of 4-star recruit Sam Leavitt. The kid from Oregon pulled a fast one just before the Early Signing Period, decommitting from Washington State to join the Spartans. Depending on how fast he picks up Jay Johnson’s offense, could he end up being the Week 1 starter?

2. How can Michigan State establish the run?

Walker totaled over 1,600 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the way to winning the Doak Walker Award in 2021. The real strength of his game came in yards per attempt (6.2) and yards after contact (4.9). The consistency on the ground alleviated pressure off Thorne to play hero ball and instead focus on consistency and accuracy.

Last season, the Spartans finished 111th nationally in rushing and only averaged 3.8 yards per attempt. Jarek Broussard, who transferred to MSU following a stint under Tucker at Colorado, averaged 4.7 yards per run. Elijah Collins averaged 4.5, while Jalen Berger averaged 4.6. As a unit, Michigan State totaled 1,356 yards on 361 attempts.

Walker finished with nearly 300 yards more individually on 98 fewer carries.

Broussard left to take a shot at the NFL, while Collins recently entered the transfer portal. Berger, Michigan State’s leading rusher in 2022, is the only returning running back with ample production. Regardless of who plays quarterback, Tucker’s priority should be building a carbon copy of the 2021 offense. That means having a consistent ground game with a featured back.

Does the coaching staff believe Berger is that player? And if not, who from the transfer portal could end up becoming Walker 2.0?

3. Who can fix the defensive line?

Tucker is working vigorously to close out the 2023 recruiting cycle on a positive note. Now, he can add finding a new defensive line coach to the mix as Marco Coleman is slated to leave the program after 1 year to return to Georgia Tech.

Tucker stated during his Early Signing Period press conference that he didn’t intend on making any changes to his staff. Maybe losing Coleman isn’t the worst thing though. Jacoby Windmon led the team in sacks with 5.5, but outside of him only Simeon Barrow totaled 4 sacks. Avery Dunn finished with 3 and Derrick Harmon had 2.

4. Are the Spartans done in the transfer portal?

Eleven new veterans will join Michigan State this offseason via the portal, but is that enough for Tucker to feel content? Several prospects, such as Texas A&M defensive lineman Tunmise Adeleye and Wisconsin cornerback Semar Melvin, are potentially viewed as plug-and-play starters. What about the rest of the bunch?

MSU added a pair of running backs in South Florida’s Jaren Mangham and UConn’s Nathan Carter. Combined, the duo racked up nearly 700 yards and 5 touchdowns. Does Tucker believe in 1 of the 2 as a Walker comparison? How about the receiver position? Jayden Reed is off to the NFL, and outside of Keon Coleman no one finished with over 40 catches and 400 yards.

Sure, Tucker added talent, but how much of it is “premier?” How many players will be game changers from the start? And who else could the Spartans look to bring in for 2023 from the transfer portal? Are 11 new proven faces enough players to rebuild the program overnight?

5. Can Tre Mosley be a capable No. 2 receiver option?

Since Tucker arrived, there’s always been a consistent duo at receiver. In 2020-21, Jalen Nailor and Reed served as the Nightwing and Robin to Rocky Lombardi’s Batman. Last season, with Nailor off to the pros, Coleman stepped up.

Next up? Mosley, who primarily served as a No. 3 or No. 4 target depending on the coverage. Last season, he averaged 10.3 yards per catch and scored 4 touchdowns, 3 of which were against non-conference opponents. Mosley also never totaled more than 65 yards receiving in a game.

Until prospects such as Jaelen Smith and Aziah Johnson join the team, Mosley will have the 1st crack at being the consistent No. 2 option in the passing game. Coleman, who averaged 13.8 yards per reception, was only able to find creases in the secondary because coordinators were doing their best to blanket Reed. And if Mosley in his 5th year in East Lansing looks more like a No. 3, will Tucker poach another player from the portal?

6. Which transfer becomes a household name by spring?

Eleven players will have a chance to become the next big thing at Spartan Stadium. The real question should be which 1 garners attention early via offseason workouts and drills?

Adeleye, a former 4-star recruit from Katy, Texas, comes from the SEC and has the size and speed to play either inside or off the edge. Melvin rotated from both the nickel and boundary during his time under Jim Leonhard in Madison and could be a vital piece in fixing MSU’s less-than-stellar secondary. Liberty’s Dre Butler tallied 2 sacks last season and also has SEC experience from his time at Auburn. Meanwhile, linebacker Aaron Alexander is a freshman from UMass who impressed the coaching staff enough to give him a scholarship without even recording a stat last fall.

Every year, at least 1 transfer becomes a staple of a program before the spring game. Who will it be for the Spartans?

7. Where will Jacoby Windmon play?

Windmon made the switch back to linebacker after his 4-sack performance against Western Michigan in Week 1. He totaled 1.5 more sacks the next week, then never had another before eventually being suspended for being involved in the tunnel incident with a Michigan player following the team’s 29-7 loss in Ann Arbor.

Windmon looked more comfortable playing near the line of scrimmage. He’s a bit of a tweener-type, meaning he can play with his hand in the dirt or from a standing blitzer role. Prior to his arrival in East Lansing, the 230-pound Windmon played all over the field at UNLV, seeing reps at defensive end, outside linebacker and even lining up inside.

Maybe Tucker needs to make Windmon a position-less player with the job of just adding pressure in the backfield. Last season, Western Michigan had 0 answers on how to stop him.

8. Is Aaron Brule a full-time starter?

No one benefitted more from Windmon missing time than Brule, who announced last month that he would be returning for his 6th and final year of eligibility. Brule, who transferred from Mississippi State, became 1 of the hottest players down the stretch in terms of consistency in defending the run.

Brule racked up 18 tackles and totaled 3 of his 4 sacks during the final 4 games under defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton. He also registered 4.5 tackles for loss, a fumble recovery, a pass breakup and 3 QB hurries. Most of the time, those numbers are good enough to warrant more reps.

Windmon returning for another year puts a damper on Brule’s potential playing time. Should Hazelton view Windmon as a linebacker, Brule likely returns to a rotational role rather than full-time starter. If Tucker thinks Windmon is better suited as a defensive end, Brule likely starts opposite Cal Haladay, who recorded a team-high 120 tackles.

9. Can the offensive line remain a strength?

One thing about Michigan State is that offensive linemen are here to be cornerstones. Since the arrival of Tucker that’s remained a constant. The Spartans’ front 5 hasn’t allowed more than 21 sacks in a season over the past 3 years. The running game has also had ample room to gallop. It’s just been missing a lead back.

With the return of Nick Samac and JD Duplain, there’s consistency and veteran leadership up front. Samac started all 12 games at center and has started 22 games since arriving on campus. Duplain earned a starting role immediately at left guard and has played 33 games there since 2019.

Chemistry is essential for any high-standing offensive line. Currently, the Spartans only have to replace Brian Greene at right guard, meaning that if the new guy can immediately match the production, anything more than 18 sacks (MSU’s total allowed in 2022) should be viewed as a failure.

10. How soon can everything come together?

Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither can a football program be. But much like Julius Caesar (who eventually had his empire, led by dear friend Brutus, turn on him), Tucker is losing the crowd with each loss. Soon enough, a mutiny could arise where boosters just eat the remainder of his contract to start fresh with the hope of better results.

Tucker is making $9 million a season to achieve B1G titles, College Football Playoff appearances and perhaps a national championship. A 5-7 or even 7-5 record won’t cut it.

The good news? Tucker has gone back to his roots by working the portal in his favor.

The 2021 season right now looks vastly different than 2023. Michigan State had 14 transfers in 2021. It has 11 at this time. There aren’t players with production like Walker or Quavaris Crouch, who had decent production at Wake Forest and Tennessee, respectively, before making the jump to B1G country. And sure, just because something works once doesn’t guarantee it will produce the same results.

If it does though, how quickly can it all come together?

There are questions surrounding the big boys of the B1G East. Ohio State is likely losing CJ Stroud to the NFL Draft. Jim Harbaugh could be headed back to the pros after 2 semifinal exits from the CFP. Penn State has potential, but no one knows if Drew Allar can be a better version of Sean Clifford.

Time is of the essence at Spartan Stadium this spring. If everything comes together, perhaps there’s promise for next season.

If not, well, Tucker might need to make a call back to Tuscaloosa or Athens for a 2nd stint as an assistant.