Michigan vs. Michigan State preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Michigan will be trying to snap its 3-game losing streak as it takes on in-state rival Michigan State in East Lansing on Tuesday night.

The Wolverines have lost 3 straight games and appear to be spiraling. Michigan State is also coming into this game off of a loss, but the Spartans are still well within range to reach the NCAA Tournament this season. A win would put Michigan State back to .500 in Big Ten play as the calendar flips to February.

Let’s break down this Big Ten showdown:

Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Odds

Spread: Michigan State -11.5 (ESPN Bet)

Total: Over/Under 145.5 points (ESPN Bet)

Betting trends to know for Michigan

Michigan is…

6-14 against the spread
2-3 against the spread on the road
2-5 against the spread as an underdog
2-7 against the spread in Big Ten games

Michigan has been dreadful against the number this season. The Wolverines have covered the spread just twice against Big Ten opponents — once at home against Ohio State and once on the road against Iowa. The Buckeyes and Hawkeyes shot a combined 8-of-45 from 3-point range in those contests — negative outliers in both cases. Michigan has rarely been competitive this season without having significant shooting luck on its side.

Betting trends to know for Michigan State

Michigan State is…

10-9-1 against the spread
8-4 against the spread at home
9-6 against the spread as a favorite
3-5-1 against the spread in Big Ten games
7-3 against the spread as a double-digit favorite

Michigan State has been very solid in this spot so far this season as it prepares to host in-state rival Michigan as a double-digit favorite. The Spartans have had some issues with beating the number against Big Ten opponents, but most of those problems have been on the road. At home, Michigan State is 2-2 ATS vs. Big Ten opposition.

3 notes for the game

Michigan State has a well-balanced profile

Michigan State is one of the most well-balanced teams in the country. The Spartans rank inside the top-35 of KenPom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency ratings. Here’s the list of teams who can say that entering Tuesday’s slate of games: Houston, Purdue, UConn, Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina, Auburn, BYU, Illinois, Duke, Marquette, Kansas and the Spartans.

Michigan State’s only clear weakness is at the free throw line. The Spartans have made 70.5% of their charity stripe attempts this year, which ranks outside of the top-200 nationally. Michigan State also doesn’t get to the line very often — just 23.5% of possessions during conference play, which ranks dead last amongst Big Ten teams.

Michigan State’s defense has been very strong this season and the Spartans have shown the ability to control the pace of a game. Michigan State’s opponents this year average 18.2 seconds per offensive possession per KenPom, which ranks 336th out of 362 Division I teams.

No one slumps like Michigan

Michigan has lost 8 of its last 9 games. Beating Ohio State on Jan. 15 could have been a turning point in the Wolverines’ season, but it appears to have just been a fluke. Since defeating the Buckeyes, Michigan has lost all 3 of its games by double digits to Illinois, Purdue and Iowa.

Not only has Michigan lost all 3 straight up and against the spread, it has failed to beat the number by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Wolverines are shooting just 30.8% from 3-point range during those games. Given that Michigan’s primary strength is its 3-point shooting (37.2%), shooting that poorly will often result in Michigan getting blown out.

Michigan will now face one of the top 3-point defenses in the Big Ten in Michigan State. The Spartans have allowed opponents to hit just 31.1% of its 3-pointers this year, which ranks in the top-50 nationally.

Michigan’s road woes

It’s been awhile since Michigan has won in East Lansing. The Wolverines haven’t won on the road in this series since Jan. 13, 2018. To Illustrate how long ago that was, current NBA players Jordan Poole and Duncan Robinson came off the bench for the Wolverines in that game. Xavier Tillman came off the bench for the Spartans. Juwan Howard was still more than a year away from becoming Michigan’s head coach.

Dug McDaniel will once again not play in this game, adding to Michigan’s road woes. McDaniel, Michigan’s starting point guard, is in the midst of serving a road-game-only suspension. He is a key part of what Michigan does offensively — he leads the Wolverines in points per game, assists per game, minutes per game as well as usage rate.

This will be the 3rd game that McDaniel has missed due to the suspension. In the first 2 contests — losses to Purdue and Maryland — Michigan especially struggled from 2-point range. The Wolverines shot just 38.9% from inside the arc, which is significantly below their season average of 52.2%. Jaelin Llewellyn has started in-place of McDaniel in that last 2 contests.

1 pick for this game

Michigan State -11.5. I don’t think the market has properly adjusted to what Michigan has been this season. Outside of a rivalry meeting with Ohio State at home, Michigan has been uncompetitive for weeks. The Wolverines have been even more lifeless during McDaniel’s road-game-only suspension. I think Michigan State will bounce back from its loss to Wisconsin and take care of business here at home.