Ohio State vs. Michigan State preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Ohio State will travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State on Sunday afternoon in a highly-anticipated Big Ten clash.

This is an important game for Michigan State, who will be looking to avoid its second straight loss ahead of a meeting with Purdue next weekend. The Spartans and Buckeyes are both still fighting for seeding in the upcoming Big Ten Basketball Tournament.

Let’s break down this matchup by looking at some betting trends and advanced stats for both teams:

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Betting Odds

Spread: Michigan State -10 (ESPN Bet)

Total: Over/Under 138 points (ESPN Bet)

Betting trends to know for Ohio State

Ohio State is…

10-16-1 against the spread
2-6 against the spread on the road
4-5 against the spread as an underdog
2-4 against the spread as a road underdog
5-11 against the spread in conference games

Betting trends to know for Michigan State

Michigan State is…

15-11-1 against the spread
11-5 against the spread at home
14-8 against the spread as a favorite
11-5 against the spread as a home favorite
8-7-1 against the spread in Big Ten games

3 notes for the game

Which Ohio State team will show up for this game?

It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for Ohio State since it decided to part ways with Chris Holtmann back on Feb. 14. The Buckeyes immediately turned around and upset Purdue in Columbus, handing the Boilermakers just their 3rd loss of the season. But then, earlier this week, Ohio State lost by 9 points on the road against a likely NIT-bound Minnesota team. That performance against the Gophers was much more in-line with Ohio State’s results prior to firing Holtmann earlier this month.

The issues for Ohio State this season have largely come on the defensive end of the floor. OSU ranks outside of the top 125 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. In its most recent loss to Minnesota, the Buckeyes were even worse than usual on that end as they allowed the Gophers to score 1.31 points per possession in a 88-79 loss. When adjusting for opponent, that was actually Ohio State’s worst defensive performance of the entire season according to BartTorvik’s numbers.

Offensively, Ohio State has been better (albeit in a small sample) under interim head coach Jake Diebler. The Buckeyes have produced back-to-back games of 1.17 points per possession, which is above their season average. The change has largely been a result of improved efficiency from inside the arc — they’re shooting 43-of-71 (60.6%) from 2-point range with Diebler in charge. It remains to be seen whether or not Ohio State can keep that going for the rest of the 2023-24 season.

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Will Michigan State lean into the 3-point shot?

Michigan State has a potential edge from beyond the arc in this game if it choses to use it. The Spartans are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the country this year, nailing over 37% of their long range attempts. Against the aforementioned porous Buckeyes’ defense, Michigan State could have a bigger edge than usual — Ohio State ranks outside of the top 300 in the country in 3-point percentage defense.

However, there is one caveat to this note — Michigan State doesn’t take many 3-pointers. The Spartans attempt a 3-point on just 30.5% of their field goal attempts, which ranks No. 322 nationally per KenPom. Long-range points also make up just 26.5% of Michigan’s State’s total points in 2023-24. Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins are both shooting at least 38% from downtown on high volume this year, but they are the only Spartans with more than 65 3-point attempts on the season. Given that defending the perimeter is a big weakness for the Buckeyes, Michigan State may try to dial up the long ball more in this matchup.

Michigan State is coming off a loss

Michigan State didn’t play well in its last game, losing to 78-71 to Iowa back on Tuesday night. The Spartans have typically responded well after losses this season and haven’t dropped back-to-back games since early January (it’s only happened twice all season). Michigan State is also 6-2-1 against the spread after a loss so far this year.

Michigan State also appeared to be a victim of some shooting variance against the Hawkeyes — particularly from inside the arc. The Spartans shot just 17-of-40 from 2-point range against Iowa, good for 42.5% — nearly 10% below their season average. Iowa, on the other end, shot 24-of-42 (57.1%) from 2-point range, which is also about its season average. With those numbers in mind, the home loss to Iowa doesn’t seem quite as worrisome for the Spartans.

1 pick for this game

Michigan State -10. I’m buying the Spartans following their loss to Iowa last time out. Michigan State is 6-2-1 against the spread after a loss so far this season and will now return to home to face a Buckeyes team that got pummeled defensively their last time out. Additionally, ShotQuality‘s model shows Michigan State is due for some positive regression — they have the Spartans as the unluckiest team in the Big Ten so far this season.