Minnesota is hoping to contend for the Big Ten West crown this season, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is skeptical of that goal.

FPI projects the Gophers to win 6.1 games this season — an improvement over the 2020 season but a long way off from their 11-2 campaign in 2019.

Here’s FPI’s projected win probability for every Minnesota game this season:

  • Sept. 2: Vs. Ohio State — 12.3% (L)
  • Sept. 11: Vs. Miami (OH) — 88.3% (W)
  • Sept. 18: at Colorado — 47.3% (L)
  • Sept. 25: Vs. Bowling Green — 97.3% (W)
  • Oct. 2: at Purdue  — 39.5% (L)
  • Oct. 16: Vs. Nebraska — 60.4% (W)
  • Oct. 23: Vs. Maryland — 62.9% (W)
  • Oct. 30: at Northwestern — 30.5% (L)
  • Nov. 6: Vs. Illinois — 77.7% (W)
  • Nov. 13: at Iowa — 26.1% (L)
  • Nov. 20: at Indiana — 27.6% (L)
  • Nov. 27: Vs. Wisconsin — 34.8% (L)

Despite projecting 6.1 wins for the Golden Gophers, FPI only views Minnesota as the favorite in five games. However, the metric shows P.J. Fleck’s squad as being in multiple relative toss-up games — including at Purdue, at Colorado and vs. Wisconsin.

According to FPI, Minnesota’s schedule gets much tougher in November. After facing Illinois in the first week of that month, the Gophers have to have Iowa and Wisconsin — the two favorites in the Big Ten West — and Indiana, who could be one of the best teams in the East this season.

Minnesota opens its 2021 season against Ohio State on Sept. 2.