Why Minnesota deserves to have a regular season loss to give
If you didn’t know any better, you’d assume that every week is a Playoff game for Minnesota.
Well, at least as it relates to the Gophers’ Playoff aspirations. That’s what happens when you’re an undefeated Power 5 team and you start off ranked No. 17 in the first Playoff poll, which was actually worse than Group of 5 UCF last year. Yikes.
That’s also what happens when despite a win against a top-4 team, unbeaten Minnesota only moved up to No. 8. Lose to Iowa this weekend and confirmation bias will set in for some. Perhaps it will for the selection committee.
But what if I told you — dare I say — that Minnesota should have a regular season loss to give? Would you just yell at me about how the non-conference schedule was trash or tell me that outside of the Penn State win, Minnesota’s résumé is virtually non-existent?
That’s fair. You know what’s not fair? Assuming this Minnesota team is out of the Playoff hunt with a regular season loss.
You see, Minnesota’s season followed a similar path to 2017 Wisconsin and 2015 Iowa. We were all ready to have the same sort of ultimatum with Minnesota’s Playoff outlook. Those 2 teams ran the table until they went down in the B1G Championship (and in closer fashion that many predicted). The thinking was that Minnesota could follow the same path and ultimately come up short of the Playoff.
That, however, is no longer the case. What 2015 Iowa and 2017 Wisconsin didn’t have to do was face a top-4 team in the regular season. Neither of them even faced a top-15 team in the regular season.
Therefore, that comp is dead. And don’t tell me Minnesota’s Playoff chances should also be dead if the Gophers aren’t the team hoisting that beautiful pig by game’s end on Saturday.
Speaking of that, WE ALL RUN FOR FLLLLOOOOYYYDDDDDD:
If sprinting across the field to carry a pig trophy isn’t enough of a motivator, well, I don’t know what is.
There’s the obvious motivation for the Gophers of treating every game like the season is on the line, just as they did last week against Penn State. P.J. Fleck has his team playing with that kind of urgency. They’ll have no reason not to attack Iowa and stay aggressive late.
And in my opinion, Minnesota should play like it doesn’t have anything to lose because everything would still be on the table with a loss. The Gophers could still have the chance to pick up consecutive wins against top-15 teams before the field is decided. Winning a conference title and beating this dominant Ohio State team on a neutral site to get there should matter a ton to the selection committee, especially if the Buckeyes are unbeaten.
I’m of the belief that the B1G has been good enough this year for a 1-loss conference champ to have essentially an automatic bid into the Playoff. Whether that’s Minnesota, Ohio State or Penn State, I don’t know.
What I do know is that we could see a scenario in which bids should be locked up by the SEC champion, unbeaten Clemson and a 1- or 0-loss B1G team. Those should be safe. The last bid would be decided by either 1-loss Oregon/Utah/Oklahoma, but I believe all of them would come up short to a 1-loss, non-SEC champ LSU (the Tigers’ résumé is one of the best we’ve seen in the Playoff era).
You better believe 1-loss, B1G champ Minnesota would be more deserving than 1-loss Oregon/Utah/Oklahoma. None of them would have a win as good as the Gophers’ best 2 wins, which would theoretically be against Penn State, as well as either the Lions again or Ohio State.
I know. You’re going to tell me about Minnesota’s non-conference schedule while totally ignoring that Oregon and Utah didn’t beat a Power 5 team in non-conference play while Oklahoma beat 4-win UCLA.
What many seem to be dismissing with the Gophers is that even with a loss to either Iowa or Wisconsin, we’re still talking about a team that would still have potentially 3 wins against ranked teams, two of which could be against teams going to New Year’s 6 Bowls. One-loss Minnesota wouldn’t just be “getting in because of the B1G West.” It would have to beat the B1G East’s best.
I know what some people might be thinking. What about Ohio State last year? Why couldn’t that 1-loss conference champ make the field and Minnesota could? The Buckeyes weren’t very good in the latter half of the regular season. At least not until the Michigan game. The Buckeyes didn’t just have the blowout loss to Purdue. It was the nail-biters against non-bowl teams Nebraska and Maryland. And well, 3 undefeated Power 5 teams (including Notre Dame) made essentially one available spot.
This year is shaping up to be a different story. Outside of the B1G, there can only be a pair of undefeated Power 5 champs (ACC and SEC). Consider that just another reason why the stage is set for the B1G to have what’s essentially an automatic bid.
A lot of people reading this would probably assume that this is all irrelevant because they assume Ohio State is going to destroy everyone and everything in its path to the Playoff. That’s fine. A lot of those people probably assumed that Minnesota didn’t have a chance against Penn State, either.
Maybe this historic season for Minnesota won’t end with a Playoff berth.
Just don’t convince yourself that 1 regular season loss should be the end of the road.