5 reasons Nebraska will beat Illinois in 2021 opener
Nebraska-Illinois doesn’t feel like a highlight of the 2021 college football schedule. The 2001 schedule? Definitely. (We’re talking Rose Bowl* and Sugar Bowl runners-up, after all.) But when it’s Week 0 on national TV and you have two coaches with something to prove at different stages of their eras, there’s intrigue.
Here’s why the Huskers will rise to the occasion Saturday.
1. Spoiling Bielema’s return to the B1G
The last time Nebraska faced Bret Bielema, it did not end well. That’s understating it. The score was 70-31 in the 2012 Big Ten Football Championship Game. That and the 539 rushing yards allowed in what was supposed to be Nebraska’s new conference coronation was bad enough. But when the Huskers were looking to replace Bo Pelini, their first choice was reportedly then-Arkansas coach Bielema. He decided to stay put. They have an axe to grind, and not the kind Minnesota and Wisconsin play for yearly. It’s somehow bigger. Scott Frost would like nothing more than to shut down the run and start the year on a high note. Cynics might say a typical nonconference win to start the year would prove nothing, but a dominant performance against a division foe with a lot of returning production might be just what Nebraska needs.
2. Revenge is on Nebraska’s mind
Nebraska has won 4 out of the past 5 against Illinois. The Huskers are 13-4-1 against the Illini all-time. Their fortunes against other Big Ten West opponents are not good. When you’ve lost 6 straight against Iowa, 8 out of 9 against Wisconsin and 3 out of 4 vs. Minnesota and Northwestern, the Huskers have to be out to prove the 2020 Illini loss was an anomaly and not the start of yet another divisional disadvantage. Otherwise, the game with Purdue becomes too important (since they’ve split the past 4) of a status symbol. Fun fact: Despite a lopsided overall record, Illinois has the edge over Nebraska in season-openers in the past 100 years (2-1). Look for the Huskers to get to .500 in that random stat that’s been sitting idle since 1925.
3. Trading Ireland for Illinois
This game was supposed to be in Ireland, but thanks to COVID-19, it’s now in Champaign. Let’s call it an Irish blessing. If you believe a transatlantic flight levels the playing field, or perhaps introduces an unpredictable variable that one team will exploit better than the other, then a road game in a less-than-hostile environment might be an improvement. Maybe Bielema has fired up the state enough to get the Fighting Illini faithful to fill the stands after the long layoff, but chances are the quieter confines of a different Memorial Stadium will allow the Huskers to settle in and get to work. If they succeed, it will be their first season-opening win on the road since 1999 at Iowa.
4. United front
They might not be playing halfway across the globe, but the Huskers should have an us-against-the-world mentality. An NCAA investigation, a coach on the hot seat and an underachieving team that should have plenty of chips on their shoulders by now. It’s past time to put it all together. The schedule is tough, so the Huskers need to set the right tone early and win the winnable games. The Huskers might not be contenders yet this year, but they shouldn’t land in 5th-place again. It has to start at Illinois. Besides, Nebraska has never lost a game in August. A win Saturday would make the Huskers 15-0 in the month.
5. Veterans vs. veterans: Success starts here
Both teams have a majority of their starters returning. Unfortunately, these teams combined to post a 5-11 record. But one of them will be 1-0 in 2021, and a seasoned quarterback will likely lead them there. It’s now or never for Adrian Martinez. The four-year starter said “my work’s not done” earlier this week. Far from it. But if the Huskers and USC transfer Markese Stepp can run and Martinez doesn’t have to too often, he’ll be in position to take care of the ball and manage the game. Illinois has a three-year starter of their own in Brandon Peters, but unless he makes a leap, the edge goes to the Huskers.
Some of Nebraska’s best games against Illinois have come under Frost, as the Huskers put up 54 points in 2018 and 674 yards in 2019, with Martinez responsible for 446 of those. MOre 2018 and 2019, less 2020 in 2021, and a win is secure.
*Also the national championship, of course.