Nebraska can make some serious noise in 2024.

That’s according to the returning production numbers published on Tuesday by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Nebraska is bringing back 77% of its production from a season ago, the third-most of any team in the FBS. The returning production just on the defensive side of the football is also top-10 among all FBS teams.

Virginia Tech (86%) and Iowa State (85%) are the only FBS teams that return more than the Huskers, according to Connelly.

Connelly’s formula weights each position differently, and it factors transfer players into the equation. Receiving yardage from wideouts and tight ends makes up 23.5% of the offensive number, quarterback passing yards at 24%, running back rushing at 5%, and offensive line snaps at 47.5%. On defense, tackles are the largest component (69.5%), followed by passes defended (12%), tackles for loss (10.5%), and sacks (8%).

From Connelly:

On average, teams returning at least 80% of production improve by about 6.4 adjusted points per game in the following season’s SP+ ratings. That’s a pretty significant jump! For a team ranked 25th in SP+ last year, adding 6.4 points to its rating would have bumped it to about 13th. And if we lower the bar to just 70% returning production — a bar 25 teams currently clear — that’s been enough to boost teams by an average of 4.0 points since 2014.

On the other end, about 11% of teams (roughly 15.2 of 134) return under 50% of their production in a given season. That results in an average drop of about 5.7 adjusted points in SP+. For a team that was 25th last year, losing 5.7 points would drop it to 51st. And for the rare team that returns less than 40% of production, the outlook is generally dire: Only 2.6% of teams fall under 40%, but they fall by an average of 9.8 points. Seven teams fell below 40% returning production last season, and while three of them (Charlotte, Colorado and Texas State) were able to stem the tide with heavy loads of transfers, the bottom three teams in returning production — East Carolina (32%), Kent State (29%) and UAB (27%) — saw their SP+ ratings fall by an average of 13.7 points in 2023.

A year ago, three of the four Playoff participants sat in the top 25 when it came to returning production. Michigan, the national champion, was fifth. Texas was 19th and Washington 22nd. One of the stories of the season — Missouri — was ninth. Florida State, which took an unbeaten record in Selection Sunday, led the country in returning production.

Nebraska finished the 2023 season — a 5-7 campaign in Matt Rhule’s debut year — 66th in SP.

The Huskers get five of their first six at home to begin the 2024 season. Those games include UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, and Rutgers. The closing stretch is treacherous, with games against Ohio State, USC, and Iowa all on the road.

But, with so much back, Nebraska could very well shoot itself out of the gates and into a hot start.

The Husker pass-catchers look deep. The offensive line is very old. The defensive line brings back smashmouth vets Nash Hutmacher and Ty Robinson alongside promising young players who made major impacts in 2023. John Bullock and Javin Wright are back to lead the linebackers. Isaac Gifford and Tommi Hill lead the charge in the secondary.

On defense, Nebraska has proven playmakers at each level. On offense, the Huskers have tremendous potential after flipping 5-star quarterback Dylan Raiola.

How quickly Raiola acclimates to the college level will be a major determining factor in Nebraska realizing that potential. The Buford product and Husker legacy is on campus and expected to emerge in the fall as the starting quarterback. How harsh will the growing pains be?

Rhule’s previous two stints as a college coach followed a similar timeline — lose a bunch in Year 1, sit around .500 in Year 2, then pop off for double-digit wins in Year 3. Nebraska was looking like it was going to buck that trend midway through last season until the dreaded one-score games returned and Big Red lost its last four.

Still, the recruiting wins created some momentum early in the offseason.