
Nebraska football: 3 keys and a prediction for Saturday vs. Illinois
In the wild, wild B1G West, anything can happen. And usually does week by week.
It’s a division where a sense of normalcy leaves the room and madness ensues. Could this week add to the craziness? Why wouldn’t it?
Nebraska hosts Illinois in a key tilt. The No. 17 Illini are certainly the better team on paper. But don’t be fooled. That’s why they play the games, and the Huskers, in front of a rowdy home crowd, look to throw a major wrench into Illinois’ plans to punch a ticket to Indy in early December.
Let’s take a look at 3 key matchups that will help decide Saturday’s winner.
1) Nebraska’s pass protection vs. Illinois’ D-line
A definite advantage to the Illini here. Ryan Walters’ defensive front has been a wrecking crew through 7 games. Nebraska’s offensive line? That’s another story.
The Huskers have to give Casey Thompson time to throw in the pocket. Offensive coordinator Mark Whipple told reporters Wednesday he expects to see man-free coverage, with help over the top against standout receiver Trey Palmer.
OC Mark Whipple calls WR Trey Palmer the offense’s best player.
“I’d be foolish if I didn’t get him the ball.” #Huskers
Whip says he expects Illinois to play a lot of man free Saturday. We’ll see how Ryan Walters’ defense handles Palmer. pic.twitter.com/YmyDwMq4fa
— Steve Marik (@Steve_Marik) October 26, 2022
If Illinois takes away Palmer with double teams, look for tight end Travis Vokolek to have a bigger impact. That is, of course, if Thompson has time to find him. Nebraska’s been working on blitz pickups during the bye week.
The bigger challenge may be winning the 1-on-1 battles. The Huskers — especially tackles Bryce Benhart and Turner Corcoran — have to stay engaged and keep guys like Jer’Zhan Newton, Keith Randolph Jr. and Gabe Jacas from repeatedly putting Thompson on his back. If they do, Thompson, who’s been improving weekly, can make enough plays to make things interesting.
2) Chase Brown vs. Nebraska’s run defense
Brown, the nation’s No. 1 rusher at 1,059 yards, looks to feast on a depleted Nebraska defense.
Earlier this week, Nebraska coach Mickey Joseph confirmed that starting linebacker Nick Henrich is out for the year after an injury suffered at Purdue. Leading tackler Luke Reimer is also hobbled and is a game-time decision. With the Huskers thin at linebacker, they’ll need a heroic effort from the guys up front. Garrett Nelson, Ty Robinson, Ochaun Mathis and company must step up.
Sophomore running back Josh McCray is set to return from injury and adds depth behind Brown. Brown toted the rock 41 times in the win over Minnesota 2 weeks ago. Head coach Bret Bielema would like to lessen his work load, and McCray’s return should allow for it.
Nebraska DC Bill Busch will likely need to be creative finding ways to fill run gaps and keep Brown in check. Look for the Huskers’ safeties to be involved more and Ernest Hausmann to get plenty of snaps at linebacker.
If Nebraska can’t slow Brown and the Illinois run game, its offense will find itself on the sideline a good portion of the afternoon. Third down stops and shorter possessions are a must for the Huskers. They can’t let Illinois chew up clock on long, sustained drives that end with points.
3) Nebraska’s red zone offense vs. Illinois defense
Amongst the several lofty numbers the Illini defense boasts is red zone defense. Illinois is first in the B1G and 2nd nationally with a 63.6% rate of stopping opponents. Nebraska, if it wants to pull the upset, must find ways to finish drives in the red zone.
Surrendering just 221.1 yards per game, the Illini defense is already a tough nut to crack. Stopping teams from scoring in the red zone is an added bonus.
How can Nebraska negate the trend?
It starts with running the football successfully. Anthony Grant must recapture the magic he showed over the team’s first 5 games. Since his 136-yard performance against Indiana on Oct. 1, Grant has gone for just 47 and 35 in games against Rutgers and Purdue. He has gone 54 carries without a rush of 10 yards.
#Huskers RB Anthony Grant has not had a run of 10 yards or more in 54 carries, since 2nd quarter vs Indiana, after having 15 such runs in his first 90 attempts.
Mickey Joseph: "We have to get him going. We have to get a running game going this week."
— Eric Olson (@ericolson64) October 26, 2022
Staying on blocks and creating seams for Grant, especially in the red zone, is a must. Nebraska can’t count on Thompson to throw TD passes. Illinois has given up only 2 all season. Plus, they’ve snagged 12 INTs, where Thompson has 8 on the year.
It’s a matchup that favors Illinois. And one that Nebraska has to find a way to win if it hopes to play the role of spoiler.
Prediction
When you look at things on paper, the game screams mismatch. Illinois wins in nearly every statistical category.
But the X-factor is the Memorial Stadium crowd. Another sellout of 85,000+ will be cheering on the Huskers. If the home team can make a few plays — especially early on — it raises the noise level. How will Illini QB Tommy DeVito handle a hostile environment? Will he make any mistakes?
Mickey Joseph has his team on the right track. Believing again. A win like this seems close. Maybe even inevitable.
While I envision a close game, in which Thompson plays well and the Nebraska defense answers the bell, they still have to prove it. The list of close losses is lengthy. The Huskers are still learning how to win.
Bret Bielema’s troops will be tested late into the 4th. But Brown gets over 100 yards and the Illinois offense wears down a gallant Huskers’ defensive effort. The Illini escape to see another week atop the wild, wild West.
Illinois 27, Nebraska 24