This offseason, I wrote about what realistic expectations for Nebraska were in Year 1 of the Scott Frost era.

Needless to say, not all of them aged well:

  • Quarterback completes 65 percent of passes for 8.5 yards per attempt
  • Near top 40 in FBS in scoring offense
  • Offensive balance
  • 6-6 with 7-8 win ceiling
  • Recruiting class ranked somewhere between 20-30

Yeah, about that…

Those expectations didn’t feel too crazy at the time. Based on how they’ve progressed now, they look insane. Here’s how each one of those developed so far:

  • Adrian Martinez: 60 percent passer for 7.7 yards per attempt
  • No. 114 in scoring offense
  • 54 percent run, 46 percent pass
  • 0-5
  • Recruiting class ranked No. 26

OK, so some of those expectations aren’t worth tweaking. The recruiting rankings and the offensive balance are on point, in my opinion.

But as for the rest of it? Let’s come up with some new expectations for the rest of a long season in Lincoln.

Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

For starters, it could always be worse. I sound like a broken record saying this, but there are a lot of teams sitting at 2-3 in worse shape than Nebraska. Why? Because they don’t have the quarterback or the coach of the future. That was basically 2017 Nebraska. The simple fact that the Huskers have a promising young signal-caller in Martinez and the coach for the rebuild in Frost are still two major, major positives that shouldn’t be taken for granted.

The connection Martinez has with J.D. Speilman and Stanley Morgan will progress, and Frost’s understanding of how to use his personnel will improve, too.

Having said that, Martinez still needs to make strides. The ball security issues are a problem. Fumbling four times in four games is too much. If you include the three interceptions, that’s seven times in four games that Martinez coughed it up. This team has too many other holes to overcome a fumble per game from Martinez. That’s obviously a big point of emphasis with Frost.

A noticeable improvement in ball security should happen for a true freshman quarterback. With how talented and smart Martinez is, I’d expect the combined fumbles + interceptions to be around 12 by season’s end (that’s five total in the last seven games).

The overall theme of Nebraska not shooting itself in the foot as much should fade. At least a little. In addition to ranking No. 122 in turnover margin (only four Power 5 teams are worse), nobody in America averages more penalty yards per game than the 97.2 that Huskers average.

Frost’s red hair is going to turn gray in a hurry if that number doesn’t come down in a hurry.

The problem is that nothing really suggests that’ll happen. Nebraska is coming off a game in which it had 100 penalty yards against Wisconsin. With a daunting schedule against teams with more talent, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Huskers continued to be out of position and commit penalties. That will undoubtedly be the toughest thing to stomach all year for Nebraska fans.

Well, unless the defensive miscues don’t turn around in a hurry. I don’t expect they will. That’s not what Frost was brought to Nebraska to overhaul. In my opinion, the Huskers are eventually going to join the club of teams who shell out seven figures for a defensive coordinator. As Frost said, you shouldn’t have nearly 600 yards of offensive and lose.

Twice.

Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

We haven’t seen any sign that this team can tackle and prevent an offense from imposing its will in the running game. The Huskers rank No. 109 against the run having allowed an average of 281 rushing yards per B1G game. But there is at least one thing that’s favorable for this defense.

Look at where each of Nebraska’s remaining FBS opponents rank in FBS in rushing:

  • Northwestern: No. 127
  • Minnesota: No. 95
  • Ohio State: No. 41
  • Illinois: No. 13
  • Michigan State: No. 109
  • Iowa: No. 87

If you add in the Bethune-Cookman matchup after Minnesota, that’s at least three games that Nebraska should show some signs improvement heading into Ohio State. Khalil Davis and Luke Gifford should help this unit at least not be a total doormat for the rest of the season.

With that in mind, I don’t expect Nebraska to continue to allow 46 points per B1G game. There’s no way that number should continue against five non-Ohio State offenses that rank in the back half of the national average (that’s 69th or worse).

So yeah, I think the defense gets slightly better based on large part on the quality of opponent. I mean, it has to.

That’s kind of how I feel about the team overall. And as long as Martinez improves with his ball security, the offense should at least be mediocre in the scoring department by season’s end.

If I’m picking the rest of the slate today with everything mentioned taken into account, here’s how I see it playing out:

  • at Northwestern — L
  • Minnesota — W
  • Bethune-Cookman — W
  • at Ohio State — L (historically big “L”)
  • Illinois — W
  • Michigan State — L
  • at Iowa — L

This now looks more like a 3-9 team. That would be another step back after last year’s 4-win season marked the program’s worst since the pre-Bob Devaney days in 1961.

If you’re a Nebraska fan, you’re hoping for a 3-2 stretch — knowing that a bloodbath is on the way in Columbus — and that maybe, just maybe, Nebraska can show enough improvement that it won’t get laughed off the field against Michigan State and Iowa with a blossoming (and healthy) Martinez leading the way. You’re hoping that the notable transfers are a thing of the past with the 4-game redshirt window in the rearview mirror, and that there isn’t anything that hurts Frost in the recruiting world.

I think it’s possible for all of those things to happen. Whether or not they will is a different story.

If you haven’t already, Husker fans, toss those bowl-game expectations in the trash and pick up a new rest-of-season outlook.

It’ll be a lot less painful.