Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Nebraska. We’ll continue with the B1G West the next 2 days. Game-by-game breakdowns of the B1G East’s teams appeared last week.

* * * * *

Nebraska is accustomed to making college football history. Just not the bad kind.

But the times, they are a-changin’.

2021 provided another ignominious reminder that the Cornhuskers program is a shell of its former self. Nebraska set an NCAA record with 8 1-possession losses, because teams that go 3-9 are usually bad enough to get blown out a few times.

In Big Ten play, the Huskers pulled off an even more phenomenal feat. Nebraska went 1-8 in league play with a point differential of zero, meaning its lone win over Northwestern came by the same point total (49) as its 8 losses combined.

When the margins are that narrow, the problems are usually self-induced. Such was the case for Nebraska, which was 94th nationally with a minus-5 turnover margin. Though the offense and quarterback Adrian Martinez drew the brunt of the blame, the defense did a poor job bailing out its associates. The Huskers were 104th with only 13 takeaways.

It wasn’t all bad for the offense or the defense, each of which had impressive moments to keep Nebraska in every game it played. But it was always bad for Nebraska’s special teams, which inevitably drove the stake in its own heart most weeks.

Phil Steele ranked Nebraska’s special teams 129th out of 130 nationally last year, following finishes of 112th and 111th the 2 previous seasons. Missed field goals, missed extra points, punt returns, kickoff returns, blocked kicks … if you can name it and it’s bad, Nebraska’s special teams did it at least once in 2021.

But you’re not here to focus on 2021.

Given the opportunity to coach for his job in 2022, Scott Frost hired 5 new assistants, including an all-important special teams coach. He’s got a new quarterback in Texas transfer Casey Thompson.

Maybe, just maybe, the horseshoe is poised to swing the other direction this year.

Scott Frost: Sink or swim?

As Kenny Loggins himself once said, this is it.

Mimicking Michigan’s move from a year ago, Nebraska AD Trev Alberts took a pragmatic approach with his program’s former quarterback turned head coach. Rather than pay a huge buyout after Frost’s 4th straight losing season, Alberts restructured his contract.

Frost makes less money now, and if this season goes south, he’ll be getting a lot less in his buyout, too. But it does afford him another chance to right the ship. Jim Harbaugh showed that path is plausible last season, leading Michigan to the Big Ten title from his spot on the hot seat.

Mark Whipple and Bill Busch are arguably the two biggest keys to Frost buying a 2023. Whipple coordinated Pitt and quarterback Kenny Pickett to an ACC title last season. Busch is a full-time special teams coach, which Frost had not previously employed. Busch held the same role under both Bo Pelini and Mike Riley from 2014-17.

Now we’ll see if the changes work, or if Frost just rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic.

More Michigan mimicry

Frost’s new win-or-go-home contract isn’t the only thing hearkening to last year’s Wolverines. Nebraska’s defense is also built in the mold that made Michigan successful.

Michigan had Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo harassing quarterbacks and changing game outcomes a year ago. Nebraska will attempt to create the same effect with Garrett Nelson and Ochaun Mathis.

Nelson, who had 6.5 TFL and 5 sacks last season, seems poised to take off this year. The arrival of Mathis on the opposite side of the line will help facilitate his rise. Mathis had 15.5 sacks in his 3 years at TCU.

If Nebraska’s duo can combine for 20 or more sacks — Hutchinson and Ojabo had 25 last year — the Huskers could very well win the Big Ten West.

The key for Casey Thompson to succeed is …

Not turning the ball over. Which is not as simple as it sounds when it comes to Nebraska quarterbacks.

Whether it’s a result of Nebraska embracing the passing game later than most programs, poor play, bad luck or bad coaching, Huskers QBs have been turnover-prone well before Frost or Adrian Martinez ever entered the equation.

The last Nebraska quarterback to throw for at least 20 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions was Zac Lee in 2006.

Thompson, who had 24 TDs and 9 INTs at Texas last season, would be able to change that by simply repeating last year’s numbers. He’ll be facing tougher defenses in the Big Ten, but his own game may be improved enough to keep up. The arrival of hyped 5-star transfer Quinn Ewers is pretty much the only reason Thompson was prompted to leave Austin, so it’s not as if he lacks game.

Of note to Nebraska fans — Thompson threw for 388 yards and 5 touchdowns against Oklahoma.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 0: vs. Northwestern in Dublin, Ireland (L)

Sorry, Huskers fans. No way I’m picking against a guy named Fitzgerald in Ireland. Or picking Frost to win a Week Zero game after last year’s Illinois debacle. A portion of the fanbase will want Frost fired over (or into) the Atlantic Ocean, but Trev Alberts stays the course. Now is not the time.

Week 1: vs. North Dakota (W)

The former Fighting Sioux are not to be confused with North Dakota State, which would be a plenty scary matchup for the Huskers. This will not be.

Week 2: vs. Georgia Southern (W)

A program finds itself in existential crisis after switching from the triple-option to a more conventional offense. I’m talking about Georgia Southern, of course.

Week 3: vs. Oklahoma (W)

Frost’s first true make-or-break moment.

With a bye week looming, the timing is right to bring down the guillotine if Oklahoma embarrasses Nebraska. But that won’t happen. The Huskers should have beaten the Sooners last season, and they’ll get the job done at home. Oklahoma can’t win in Lincoln without Lincoln (Riley).

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: vs. Indiana (L)

Flying high after the upset of Oklahoma, we crash back to a pair of unlikely realities: 1) Scott Frost is winless coming off of a bye week at Nebraska and 2) Indiana is 10-8 all-time against Nebraska.

The Hoosiers bring the Huskers down to 3-2 with a pair of puzzling losses.

Week 6: at Rutgers (W)

It’s Friday night in Piscataway, which means anything can happen. And probably will. But look for Busch to earn his keep here. Rutgers is neck-and-neck with Iowa for the best special teams unit in the B1G, but for once the Huskers won’t squander a close game in that phase.

Week 7: at Purdue (L)

Former Iowa return man Charlie Jones, the defending Big Ten returner of the year, is a Boilermaker now. And in this matchup, look for him to provide a flashback to the past 3 years of Nebraska special teams misadventure.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Illinois (W)

Finally, Frost picks up his long-awaited maiden win after an open date.

Week 10: vs. Minnesota (W)

A game the Huskers should have won a year ago if not for a parade of fourth quarter miscues. This time, PJ Fleck’s boat will run aground in Frosty waters.

Week 11: at Michigan (L)

This is among the haziest outcomes for the Crystal Ball to project. This is another game Nebraska let slip away late a year ago. This may well be the first game Michigan drops before playing Ohio State. But the Crystal Ball is hesitant to pick against the Wolverines in the Big House.

Week 12: vs. Wisconsin (W)

Not to sound like a broken record, but … last season Nebraska was the only team to surpass 400 yards (452) against Wisconsin’s defense. In fact, Michigan was the only other team that even went over 300. There’s a boatload of talent gone from that Badgers’ defense, and this time the Huskers get yards and a win.

Week 13: at Iowa (L)

A rollercoaster that began Week Zero comes to a wild conclusion — despite being 4-4 in conference, the Huskers enter the season’s final week needing only a win combined with an Indiana upset of Purdue to clinch a Big Ten championship game berth.

Alas, neither outcome will pan out for Nebraska. Iowa wins its 8th straight over the Huskers, eliminating the need for an Indiana-Nebraska Big Red Alliance the following day.

2022 Projection: 7-5 (4-5), 5th in B1G West

#GBR

Like Fox Mulder, the Crystal Ball wants to believe.

From the program’s storied history to the former quarterback getting a second chance to the identity of the defense, so much about the 2022 Cornhuskers is reminiscent of last year’s Big Ten champions (Iowa). Nebraska winning the West wouldn’t be the craziest thing we’ve ever seen by a long shot. Every single conference game feels like a toss-up.

Going 8-1 in the B1G a year after going 1-8 is entirely plausible.

But it’s impossible to buy in without any evidence it can happen. Crystal Balls do not operate on faith. Jim Harbaugh had success at every other stop in his coaching career, not to mention a 10-win season in 2018 and a 9-win season in 2019 at Michigan.

Frost has done nothing of the sort. He’s the first Nebraska coach with a losing record since Bill Jennings, who was fired in 1961.

It certainly looks like Frost has done everything right in assembling his current staff. Nebraska should be improved enough to save his job for another season — but unfortunately, the Huskers won’t make a big enough jump that we won’t be asking the same questions heading into 2023.