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Remember when basketball games in Bloomington were all the rage?
Fun times.
As IU fans eagerly count down the seconds until Monday night’s college football national championship game against Miami, the Hoosiers’ basketball team hopes to get back to its winning ways today at Assembly Hall.
Indiana hosts Iowa — 2 struggling Big Ten contenders meeting in a must-win showdown. Tip-off is set for 2 pm, ET (FOX).
Iowa (12-5, 2-4 B1G) has lost 3 in a row. Indiana (12-5, 3-3 B1G) has lost its past 2 games.
The Hoosiers are a consensus 1.5-point favorite at home (though some books have lengthened the spread to 2.5). The Hoosiers are 6-5 ATS this season as a home favorite.
Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz is an emerging force, averaging 17.7 points and a team-leading 5.0 assists. Indiana counters with a lethal backcourt duo featuring Lamar Wilkerson (20.3 PPG) and Tucker DeVries (14.6).
We’ll break down the matchup and offer our best bet.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers Odds
| Bet Type | Iowa | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +111 | -132 |
| Spread | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-112) |
| Total (Over/Under) | O 142.5 (-112) | U 142.5 (-108) |
Odds courtesy of consensus data on January 16 and are subject to change
The bookmakers are treating this as essentially a pick-’em game, with Indiana getting just a 1.5-point home-court advantage. The Hoosiers’ -132 moneyline suggests oddsmakers view this as a coin flip with a slight edge to the home team. After removing the vig, Indiana carries an implied win probability of approximately 54.6%, while Iowa sits at 45.4%.
For casual bettors looking to get in on the action, a $5 wager on Indiana’s moneyline (-132) would return a profit of $3.79 if the Hoosiers defend home court. Meanwhile, backing Iowa as the underdog (+111) with that same $5 bet would yield a $5.55 profit should the Hawkeyes snap their road struggles. The total is set at a modest 142.5 points, indicating sportsbooks expect a defensive battle between these conference foes.
Indiana vs Iowa Team Stats
Who has the edge when they meet today at Assembly Hall?
| Statistic | Iowa | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| RPI Ranking | 52 | 68 |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.5447 | 0.5341 |
| Record vs. Top 25 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Home / Away Record | 9-1 / 0-4 | 10-1 / 1-3 |
| Points Per Game | 78.7 | 83.1 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 62.7 | 68.8 |
| Point Differential | +16.0 | +14.3 |
| Field Goal % | 51.1% | 48.1% |
| 3-Point % | 37.7% | 36.2% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 28.4 | 31.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 13.4 | 10.2 |
Iowa operates as the more efficient machine, shooting 51.6% from the field compared to Indiana’s 48.1%, while also holding a slight edge from beyond the arc at 37.7%. The Hawkeyes’ calling card is their suffocating defense, allowing just 62.7 points per game — nearly 6 points fewer than Indiana’s 68.8. This defensive prowess gives Iowa a superior point differential despite scoring less.
The elephant in the room is Iowa’s complete inability to win away from home. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 on the road this season, a troubling trend that stands in stark contrast to their dominant 9-1 home record. Indiana, meanwhile, is 10-1 at home, setting up a classic immovable object versus unstoppable force scenario.
Best Bet Indiana vs Iowa
Best Bet: Indiana Hoosiers -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Sometimes the most obvious angle is the correct one, and this matchup screams home-court advantage. The contrast between these teams’ home and road performances tells the story of this game.
Iowa’s road woes run deeper than just wins and losses — the Hawkeyes are a fundamentally different team away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Meanwhile, Indiana has been a buzzsaw at Assembly Hall, posting a 10-1 record behind Wilkerson’s explosive scoring.
The Hoosiers hold crucial advantages that should manifest in a tight game. Their 3.4 rebounds per game edge becomes magnified in what projects as a low-possession contest, creating extra opportunities while limiting Iowa’s chances. Indiana’s superior ball movement (18.2 assists per game) suggests it is better equipped to generate quality looks against Iowa’s stingy defense.
While the Hawkeyes boast better shooting percentages, those numbers were built primarily at home.
At just 1.5 points, this spread requires only a simple Indiana victory to cash. Given the Hoosiers’ dominant home record and Iowa’s perfect road futility, back Indiana to defend Assembly Hall and keep the Hawkeyes’ away struggles intact.
SPORTSBOOK
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.