Iowa at Purdue: Prediction and preview

No. 5 Purdue welcomes Iowa to Mackey Arena tonight. Tip-off is 6:30 pm, ET (BTN).

The Boilermakers (15-1, 5-0 B1G) have won 7 in a row and are 9-1 at home. Iowa (12-4, 2-3 B1G) is trying to snap a 2-game skid.

Few think that will happen. Purdue is a consensus 10.5-point favorite for many reasons, starting with All-America candidate Braden Smith (14.1 points, 9.8 assists per game). Iowa counters with Bennett Stirtz (17.6 points, 5.1 assists).

We’ll preview the Big Ten battle and offer expert betting advice.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue opens as heavy home favorites, with the moneyline reflecting the significant gap in perception between these programs. The double-digit spread suggests oddsmakers expect the Boilermakers to control this game from start to finish, while the total points to a moderately-paced affair that should showcase both teams’ offensive capabilities.

Bet Type	Purdue	Iowa
Moneyline	-592	+430
Spread	-10.5 (+100)	+10.5 (-120)
Total	Over 142.5 (-108)	Under 142.5 (-111)

Odds are via consensus on January 14 and are subject to change.

These numbers translate to an implied probability of 81.93% for a Purdue victory, These numbers translate to an implied probability of 81.93% for a Purdue victory, leaving Iowa with just an 18.87% chance to shock the college basketball world. For casual bettors, the moneyline math is straightforward: a $5 wager on Purdue would profit approximately $0.84 if the Boilermakers take care of business at home. On the flip side, backing the underdog Hawkeyes with that same $5 bet would net a profit of $21.50 should they find a way to silence Mackey Arena.

Statistical Breakdown: Purdue vs Iowa

Who has the edge when the Boilermakers and Hawkeyes battle tonight?

Stat	Purdue	Iowa
RPI Ranking	No. 5	No. 61
NET Ranking	No. 6	No. 20
Points Per Game	86.4	79.1
Points Allowed Per Game	68.1	61.7
3-Point %	39.3%	37.0%
Strength of Schedule	0.6031	0.5265
Record vs. Top 25	2-1	0-3

The numbers paint a clear picture of Purdue’s superiority. Its offensive firepower stems from Smith’s elite playmaking ability and a balanced attack that shoots 51.8% overall and 39.3% from beyond the arc.

Iowa’s defensive statistics look impressive, allowing just 61.7 points per game versus Purdue’s 68.1. However, context matters. Purdue has faced significantly tougher competition. The Boilermakers are 2-1 against Top 25 teams, while Iowa is 0-3 in such matchups.

The advanced metrics further emphasize this gap in quality. Purdue’s RPI ranking towers over Iowa’s, reflecting not just their record but the caliber of opponents they’ve defeated. For the Hawkeyes to have any chance at Mackey Arena, their defense must perform at a level it has yet to demonstrate against truly elite offensive competition.

Best Bet: Purdue Covers the Spread at Home

The situational factors and statistical trends all point toward a comfortable Purdue victory that covers the 10.5-point spread. This recommendation comes with strong historical and analytical backing that makes the large spread more palatable.

Best Bet: Purdue Boilermakers -9.5 (-120) via FanDuel

The talent gap is obvious and glaring, but Iowa’s road struggles contribute to this pick.

Iowa’s best chance to cover the spread is for Purdue to experience a going-through-the-motions type of performance, but Matt Painter doesn’t settle for complacency, so that’s unlikely.

Purdue’s defense will control the Hawkeyes and limit second-chance points.

Purdue’s home-court advantage cannot be overstated. Mackey has been a house of horrors for Iowa, which hasn’t won there since the 2015-16 season — a 6-game losing streak that speaks to both the atmosphere and Purdue’s sustained excellence on their home floor.

Expect Purdue to leverage their superior talent, home crowd energy, and Iowa’s road demons to secure a double-digit victory that keeps their Big Ten title hopes firmly on track.