Michigan at Purdue: Best bet for key B1G showdown

No. 1 Michigan visiting No. 7 Purdue tonight didn’t need any extra hype.

Michigan forward Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg provided it anyway. In a clip that went viral, Lendeborg didn’t mince words, declaring, “When we see Purdue, we gonna spank they … a–.”

We’ll find out soon enough. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm, ET (Peacock).

Michigan (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) has won 10 in a row. Purdue (21-4, 11-3) enters on a 4-game heater, looking to defend a home court where the Boilers are 11-2 this season.

Oddsmakers have installed Michigan as a consensus 2.5-point road favorite.

Our analysis breaks down Michigan at Purdue and offers expert betting advice.

Michigan at Purdue Odds

The following betting markets for Tuesday night’s game at Mackey Arena are current as of February 17, 2026.

• Moneyline: Michigan -142 | Purdue +118
• Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-103) | Purdue +2.5 (-118)
• Total: Over 152.5 (-115) | Under 152.5 (-105)

Odds sourced from consensus sportsbooks.

Betting 101: Understanding the Value. If you are new to the window, here is what these numbers mean for your wallet. A $5 bet on Michigan (-152)—the favorite—requires you to risk more to win less, yielding a profit of $3.29 if they leave with a W. On the flip side, the underdog Boilermakers offer “plus money” value; a $5 bet on Purdue (+126) would return a profit of $6.30 if they defend home court.

Michigan at Purdue Tale of Tape

Michigan has bludgeoned teams with pace and paint dominance, leading the conference in scoring. Purdue operates with surgical precision, led by the nation’s best floor general.

Statistic	Michigan	Purdue
Points Per Game	90.6	82.6
PPG Allowed	68.3	68.6
Scoring Margin	+22.3	+14.0
FG Percentage	52.4%	49.1%
Assists Per Game	19.4	18.5
Blocks Per Game	6.1	3.1
RPI Ranking	1	7
Record vs. RPI Top 25	4-0	3-2

Michigan’s defensive identity is anchored by sheer length. Aday Mara (7-3) leads the Big Ten with 2.76 blocks per game (69 total). Alongside him, Lendeborg contributes 1.44 blocks per contest. This rim protection is the primary reason Michigan holds opponents to just 68.3 points despite playing at a frantic offensive pace.

Purdue counters that length with elite decision-making. Braden Smith is having an All-American caliber season, ranking second in the league with 8.9 assists per game. His ability to manipulate defenses was on full display in the recent rout of Iowa, where he dished out 12 dimes. For Purdue to cover, Smith must navigate Michigan’s forest of arms and find shooters like Fletcher Loyer (13.5 PPG) in the corners.

Michigan at Purdue Best Bet: Over 152.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

These teams are so evenly matched and the spread is so narrow that we think the safest play is expecting points.

Why? This game features two of the most efficient offensive units in the country, setting the stage for a game where offensive execution outweighs defensive stoppage.

And don’t get it twisted: Both defenses are very good.

But Michigan and Purdue run beautiful schemes and can score in half-court sets. Purdue’s Oscar Cluff (72.8% FG) and forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.1 PPG) provide a high scoring floor. Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. leads the league in field goal percentage at 67.9%, while teammate Aday Mara shoots 65.1%.

We’re not calling for a track meet because neither defense will allow that, but both teams protect the ball, get quality looks and convert at a high clip. That means fewer empty possessions. Expect a close, final score in which the winner reaches the lows 80s, comfortably clearing the 152.5 number.