Michigan State at Purdue: Best Kalshi markets to target

Not much separates No. 8 Purdue and No. 13 Michigan State.

Both are 22-5 overall, 12-4 in the B1G. Both are chasing league-leader Michigan in the B1G standings.

Tonight, the Boilermakers host the Spartans in their only scheduled meeting this season. Tip-off is set for 8 pm, ET, at Mackey Arena, streaming exclusively on Peacock.

Purdue is a 7.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but we’re focusing on the Kalshi markets.

This betting preview breaks down the matchups and markets and offers the best Kalshi markets to target.

Michigan State vs Purdue Odds

The latest consensus odds for this Big Ten matchup reflect Purdue’s historical strength at Mackey Arena, positioning the Boilermakers as the clear favorites against the spread.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Purdue	-327	-7.5 (-105)	O 142.5 (-105)
Michigan State	+258	+7.5 (-115)	U 142.5 (-115)

Odds provided by consensus sportsbooks. Subject to change.

The oddsmakers have set the line with Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite, meaning the Boilermakers must win by at least 8 points to cover the spread. The total for the game is set at 142.5 points, with the books slightly favoring the Under (-115), suggesting a defensive battle is expected in West Lafayette.

Based on the moneyline odds, the no-vig (fair value) win probabilities indicate a distinct advantage for the home team. Purdue holds approximately a 73.3% probability of winning the game outright, while Michigan State is given a 26.7% chance of pulling off the upset on the road.

For those new to sports betting, the difference in risk is reflected in the potential payouts. Because Purdue is the heavy favorite, a winning $10 bet on their moneyline (-327) would yield a profit of only $3.06. However, taking the risk on the underdog Spartans (+258) offers a higher reward; a winning $10 bet on Michigan State would result in a profit of $25.80.

Of course, Kalshi is always an option, too.

On Kalshi, you can buy a Purdue contract to win at $0.76. You would win $0.24 for each Purdue contract, should the Boilers win the game. You can purchase a Michigan State contract for $0.26. You would win $0.74 for each contract should the Spartans pull off the upset.

That means your same $10 investment in Purdue contracts at Kalshi would profit $2 if the Boilers win, and $10 worth of Michigan State contracts would profit $26 if the Spartans win.

Michigan State at Purdue Tale of Tape

Who has the edge in tonight’s top-15 showdown?

Statistic	Michigan State	Purdue
RPI Ranking	14	8
Overall Record	22-5	22-5
Conference Record	12-4	12-4
Points Per Game	78.4	82.9
Points Allowed Per Game	66.2	69.3
Scoring Margin	+12.3	+13.7
Strength of Schedule	0.5824	0.5892
Record vs. RPI 1-25	3-3	3-3
Team FG%	46.6%	50.1%
Team 3P%	35.1%	38.0%

The most glaring difference is offensive efficiency. Purdue is averaging 82.9 points per game compared to Michigan State’s 78.4. The Boilermakers are shooting an impressive 50.1%, fueled by the interior efficiency of Trey Kaufman-Renn and the playmaking of Braden Smith. They also hold the edge from beyond the arc, converting 38.0% of their three-point attempts, significantly higher than MSU’s 35.1%.

However, the Spartans make up for the offensive gap on the other end of the floor. Michigan State’s defense allows just 66.2 points per game, three points fewer than Purdue (69.3). In a game that oddsmakers expect to be tight (implied by the 142.5 total), MSU’s ability to slow down Purdue’s high-percentage shooters will be the defining factor.

Where Purdue has separated itself slightly is in the second tier of competition; the Boilermakers are 6-1 against teams ranked 26-50 in RPI, while the Spartans are 3-1.

Michigan State vs Purdue Best Bets

Again, we’re focusing on the Kalshi markets, which offers multiple options no matter which team you support.

Pick 1: Purdue -6.5 ($0.53 per contract at Kalshi)

Purdue has been nearly untouchable at home with a 12-3 record. The only pause here on this spread is that the Boilers are just 5-9 ATS as a home favorite this season.

The critical factor is Purdue’s balanced offensive attack. The interior is anchored by Oscar Cluff, who leads the Boilers with a remarkable 72.1% field goal percentage (111-of-154). His inside presence forces defenses to collapse, creating space for perimeter shooters like Fletcher Loyer, who is converting 40.2% of his 3-point attempts.

Michigan State has struggled with perimeter consistency on the road. Key rotation piece Trey Fort is shooting just 31.9% from beyond the arc and 33.6% from the field. Without reliable spacing, Michigan State might find it difficult to keep pace with Purdue’s scoring efficiency for a full 40 minutes. Additionally, Purdue’s ability to close games at the free-throw line — led by Braden Smith’s 80.7% clip — adds confidence to their ability to extend the margin late.

(If that spread feels like too much, Kalshi also offers Purdue -3.5 point contracts for $0.63 per. You still stand to profit more from that investment (should the Boilers cover), than the price per contract on the moneyline.)

Pick 2: Under 143.5 Points ($0.53 per contract at Kalshi)

Historically, Tom Izzo and Matt Painter are two of the best defensive minds in the Big Ten. Their teams typically play defenses like their head coaches coach it: physical and relentless.

These kinds of games typically evolve into defensive battles, and their rebounding profiles suggest limited second-chance opportunities. This matchup features four of the conference’s most effective rebounders, likely restricting possessions to a single shot.

With both teams excelling at defensive rebounding, the pace is expected to slow significantly. Neither team relies heavily on transition offense, preferring half-court execution orchestrated by their point guards. These factors align with a lower-scoring environment, with a predicted final score of Purdue 72, Michigan State 65.