Ohio State at Michigan: Best bet for B1G rivalry game

No. 3 Michigan doesn’t get many opportunities like the one it has tonight.

The Wolverines are 14.5-point favorites against hated rival Ohio State. Tip-off is set for 8 pm, ET in Ann Arbor. FOX will televise the Big Ten battle. As if that weren’t enough, the Wolverines also are retiring Trey Burke’s No. 3 jersey. Burke was the 2013 Naismith Player of the Year and led Michigan to the national championship game.

Michigan stormed to a 14-0 start before stumbling against Wisconsin. The Wolverines (17-1, 7-1) rebounded to win their next 3 B1G games by double digits.

Ohio State (13-5, 5-3 B1G) has yet to crack the AP Top 25 this season, but the Buckeyes have won their past 2 B1G games.

Expect fireworks. Michigan averages 92.7 points per game, and won’t let it if they get the opportunity, especially after Ohio State forward Colin White told reporters that the Buckeyes “hate Michigan, so we are coming out for blood. We’re going up there to win, and we’re going to have fun doing it.”

Does OSU have a chance? Vegas clearly doesn’t think so. Let’s dive in and offer the best betting advice on tonight’s Big Ten matchup.

Ohio State vs Michigan Betting Odds

The betting markets have weighed in on this critical Big Ten clash, with the consensus odds reflecting Michigan’s dominant season and home-court advantage. Here’s a breakdown of the current betting lines:

Bet Type	Michigan	OSU
Spread	-14.5 (-116)	+14.5 (-104)
Moneyline	+853	-1538
Total	Over 163.5 (-112)	Under 163.5 (-108)

Odds are from consensus sportsbooks on January 23 and subject to change

Michigan enters as a significant favorite, reflected by its heavy moneyline odds of -1538 and a 14.5-point spread. The total points for the game are set at 163.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair that aligns with Michigan’s potent offense.

When the vigorish is removed from the equation, Michigan holds an implied win probability of approximately 89.95%, while Ohio State’s probability stands at about 10.05%. For those new to betting, a $5 bet on the Michigan moneyline (-1538) would profit a modest $0.33 if they win, meaning you’d get your $5 back plus $0.33. Conversely, a $5 bet on the underdog Ohio State moneyline (+853) would yield a significant profit of $42.65 if the Buckeyes pull off the upset.

Michigan vs OSU Key Stats

Who has the edge tonight in Ann Arbor?

Statistic	Michigan	Ohio State
Overall Record	17-1	13-5
Big Ten Record	7-1	5-3
Points Per Game (Big Ten Rank)	92.7 (2nd)	83.2 (7th)
Points Allowed Per Game (Big Ten Rank)	69.0 (2nd)	72.2 (7th)
Scoring Differential (Big Ten Rank)	+23.7 (2nd)	+11.1 (7th)
Current Winning Streak	W3	W2
RPI Ranking (National Rank)	1st	51st
Strength of Schedule	0.6145	0.551
Record vs. Top 25 Opponents	2-0	0-3
Record vs. #26-50 Opponents	4-1	0-0
Record vs. #51-100 Opponents	6-0	4-1

The most telling comparison comes from their performance against ranked opponents. Michigan is 2-0 against Top 25 teams and 4-1 against Nos. 26-50 opponents, demonstrating its ability to consistently beat high-quality competition. In contrast, Ohio State is 0-3 against Top 25 teams.

My apologies for grabbing the wrong section! Here is the Point Spread Analysis: Can the Wolverines Cover? section:

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Point Spread Analysis: Can the Wolverines Cover?

With Michigan favored by 14.5 points, bettors are evaluating whether the Wolverines can maintain their dominant margin of victory against a rival Buckeyes squad. Statistical trends heavily favor Michigan covering the spread. The Wolverines boast a +23.7 scoring differential, the second-best in the Big Ten, which suggests they are accustomed to winning by margins far exceeding the current 14.5-point line.

A deeper look at the RPI rankings reinforces this position. Michigan is 6-0 against teams ranked Nos. 51-100 and an impressive 4-1 against Nos. 26-50 opponents. Ohio State, currently ranked 51st in RPI, falls right into the tier where Michigan has been most dominant. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have struggled significantly against top-tier competition, posting an 0-3 record against Top 25 teams.

The emotional narrative also favors a blowout. Buckeyes players Bruce Thornton and Colin White have been vocal, guaranteeing a win and declaring they “hate Michigan.” This trash talk, combined with the emotional lift of Trey Burke’s jersey retirement, is likely to fuel a focused Wolverines performance at the Crisler Center. Given Michigan’s superior offensive efficiency (92.7 PPG) and the Buckeyes’ inability to secure wins against elite teams, Michigan -14.5 (-116) is a strong recommendation … but it’s not our best bet.

Michigan vs Ohio State Best Bet

Best Bet: Over 163.5 Points via DraftKings (-112)

After analyzing the statistics and odds for this rivalry clash, one clear opportunity emerges for our best bet: Over 163.5 total points.

Michigan is an offensive juggernaut, averaging an incredible 92.7 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the Big Ten. More troublesome, from an OSU perspective, is that the Wolverines’ points come from everywhere. Yaxel Lendeborg (14.2) is the leading scorer in name only; 6 Michigan players average more than 9 points per game.

Ohio State has opponents to 72.2 points per game, but Michigan has consistently proven it can exceed expectations against any opposition.

The Buckeyes can score, too, averaging a solid 83.2 points per game. Bruce Thornton (20.7 points per game) is one of the B1G’s best scorers, and John Mobley Jr. is hitting 41.4% of his 3s. That firepower ensures that Ohio State will contribute significantly to the total. Even though Michigan boasts a strong defense allowing only 69.0 points per game, the sheer volume of scoring talent on both rosters points towards a high-octane affair.

When we consider the combined offensive averages of both teams — 175.9 points — the set total of 163.5 appears conservative given the rivalry and Ohio State’s desire to push the pace. With the added emotion of Burke’s jersey retirement and the pregame trash talk from Buckeyes players, this matchup is positioned to be a showcase of Big Ten offensive basketball at its finest.