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Two college basketball heavyweights collide in what promises to be a marquee nonconference battle as the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon in Atlanta. Tipoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Tar Heels (10-1) have won 4 in a row and climbed to No. 12 in the AP Poll. Ohio State (8-2) opened the season 6-0 but is 2-2 in its past 4 games. The Buckeyes are looking to make a statement against elite competition.
The Buckeyes are powered by senior guard Bruce Thornton, who has been putting on an clinic with 21.8 points per game while shooting a scorching 50% from 3-point range through 10 games. North Carolina brings a dominant frontcourt led by freshman Caleb Wilson, who is averaging a double-double (19.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, alongside junior center Henri Veesaar (16.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game). One interesting storyline involves injured wing Seth Trimble, who returned to practice this week after suffering a broken arm.
This neutral-site showdown promises to deliver elite guard play battling against a formidable frontcourt presence in a game with serious national implications for both programs.
North Carolina vs. Ohio State Odds
The betting markets have installed North Carolina as the clear favorite heading into this neutral-site battle between blue-blood programs.
| Betting Market | North Carolina Tar Heels | Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-118) | +2.5 (-103) |
| Moneyline | -161 | +134 |
| Total (Over/Under) | O 152.5 (-105) | U 152.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of consensus data.
The oddsmakers clearly respect what North Carolina has shown this season, making them 2.5-point favorites with a -161 moneyline that suggests they’re the more likely team to win straight up. The total sits at a lofty 151.5 points, indicating bookmakers expect an up-tempo affair with plenty of scoring. Both teams enter the game averaging at least 80 points per contest.
Statistical Breakdown: Tar Heels vs. Buckeyes Key Numbers
The statistical comparison reveals a clash of philosophies: Ohio State’s high-octane offensive attack going head-to-head with North Carolina’s glass-cleaning dominance.
| Key Stat | North Carolina Tar Heels | Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| RPI | 0.6523 (Rank: 12) | 0.5883 (Rank: 53) |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.577 | 0.5344 |
| Record vs. RPI 1-50 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Points Per Game | 80.7 | 87.6 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 64.1 | 72.9 |
| Field Goal % | 47.2% | 51.7% |
| Three Point % | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 39.0 | 34.0 |
| Assists Per Game | 17.5 | 17.1 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 10.2 | 10.6 |
A key storyline to watch: Ohio State enters averaging 8.6 made 3-pointers per game. North Carolina has only allowed 3 opponents to make 8 3-pointers against them this season, a notable improvement. Last season, 21 opponents hit at least 8 3-pointers against the Tar Heels, including 11 that made 10 or more. Teams shot 33.5% from deep against UNC last year, but are only connecting at a 30.3% clip this season.
Ohio State leading scorer Bruce Thornton and backcourt mate John Mobley Jr. each average more than 2 made 3-pointers per game. Thornton’s hot shooting from beyond the arc has been a major catalyst.
North Carolina, meanwhile, has retooled its frontcourt and again is controlling the boards. The Tar Heels are surrendering just 64.1 points per contest — nearly 9 fewer than Ohio State — while dominating the glass to the tune of 39 rebounds per game compared to Ohio State’s 34. Already, UNC has had 6 games in which it has grabbed 10 or more offensive rebounds, including a season-high 17 in a 67-64 win at Kentucky.
The resume comparison also favors the Tar Heels significantly. North Carolina sits at No. 12 in the RPI compared to Ohio State’s No. 53 ranking, and more important, the Tar Heels have proven themselves against elite competition with a 2-1 record against RPI top-50 opponents. Ohio State is still searching for that signature win, sitting 0-1 in that crucial category.
Best Bet: Under 152.5 Points
Styles make fights, and in this case, it’s Ohio State’s explosive offensive capabilities running into North Carolina’s defensive wall and rebounding dominance. The Buckeyes have been putting up impressive numbers, averaging 87.6 points per contest behind Thornton’s incredible shooting display, which explains why oddsmakers set this total at 152.5 points.
However, this North Carolina team is built to neutralize teams like Ohio State. The Tar Heels’ defense allows just 64.1 points per game, and their biggest weapon might be their ability to control the pace through rebounding.
The key factor here is Ohio State’s inexperience against top-tier competition. That 0-1 record against RPI top-50 opponents isn’t just a number — it’s a red flag that suggests the Buckeyes haven’t faced the kind of size, athleticism, and defensive intensity that North Carolina brings to the table. In neutral-site games like this, the team that can impose its will usually comes out ahead.
Wilson’s rebounding dominance and Veesaar’s interior presence give North Carolina the tools to slow down Ohio State’s tempo and make every possession a battle. When teams have to work this hard for their shots, point totals tend to reduce significantly from their season averages.
Pick: Under 152.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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