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Oregon vs. Maryland: Best bet for B1G Tournament opener
By Chris Wright
Published:
No. 17 seed Maryland takes No. 16 seed Oregon today in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament. Tip-off is set for 5 pm, ET (Peacock).
The winner advances to Wednesday’s second-round against No. 9 seed Iowa. The loser begins preparing for next season.
Oregon beat Maryland in their only meeting this season, 64-54 on Jan. 2 in College Park.
Both programs entered the year with postseason aspirations after deep tournament runs last spring, but devastating injuries to key contributors — Maryland losing leading scorer Pharrel Payne to a December leg injury and Oregon losing star guard Jackson Shelstad to a severe hand injury — derailed their regular seasons.
Our analysis breaks down the key metrics and matchups and recommends the best Kalshi market to target for Oregon vs. Maryland.
Maryland vs Oregon Odds
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | +4.5 (-111) | +151 | Over 138.5 (-109) |
| Oregon | -4.5 (-109) | -182 | Under 138.5 (-111) |
Odds sourced from ESPN Bet as of March 10.
If you are new to the sports betting window, reading the odds board might feel a bit intimidating. In this matchup, Oregon is listed as the favorite, indicated by the minus sign (-) next to their odds. Oddsmakers have set the Ducks as 4.5-point favorites on the spread, meaning they need to win by 5 points or more to cover the ticket. Conversely, Maryland is the underdog, marked by the plus sign (+). Maryland covers the spread by winning the game outright or losing by 4 points or fewer. The total points projected for the entire game between both teams sits at 138.5 points.
When sportsbooks set the moneyline, they build in a small profit margin known as the “vig.” If we strip that house edge away to find the true, “no-vig” probability, the math gives Oregon a 61.8% chance of claiming the victory. Maryland holds a 38.2% true probability of securing the upset at the United Center. To put this into a real-world perspective, a standard $5 wager on the favored Ducks at -182 would yield a modest profit of $2.75 if they win. On the flip side, a $5 wager on the underdog Terrapins at +151 returns a $7.55 profit if they pull off the victory.
At prediction site Kalshi, Oregon to win is trading at 63¢ (equivalent to a -170 moneyline) and Maryland to win is trading at 38¢ (equivalent to a +168 moneyline). Click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to get started.
Maryland vs Oregon Tale of Tape
| Metric | Maryland | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 11-20 | 12-19 |
| Big Ten Record | 4-16 | 5-15 |
| RPI Ranking | 174 | 156 |
| Strength of Schedule (SOS) | .5629 | .5723 |
| Record vs. Rank 1-25 | 0-9 | 0-6 |
| Record vs. Rank 26-50 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Record vs. Rank 51-100 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Record vs. Rank 101-150 | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Record vs. Rank 151+ | 7-3 | 7-1 |
| Neutral Site Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
A glance at the resumes shows 2 programs that endured challenging seasons without cracking the AP Top 25. Oregon holds a slight advantage in the RPI rankings, sitting at 156 compared to Maryland at 174. This stems partly from Oregon navigating a marginally tougher schedule.
Best Bet: Oregon -3.5 ($0.54 at Kalshi)
When deciding how to approach the betting window for this Big Ten Tournament clash, the point spread offers the most compelling statistical angle. The best bet for this matchup is taking Oregon to cover the -3.5 spread at $0.54 per contract at Kalshi, which equates to -117 odds. A $20 investment in these contracts would profit $18 if the Ducks cover the number.
(Keep in mind, Kalshi has several spread markets. If you’re not comfortable with -3.5, you can opt for the moneyline contract at $0.63 per.)
Here’s why we like the Oregon -3.5 points contract:
Primarily, the Ducks already beat the Terps by 10 earlier this season, at Maryland, without Shelstad.
Further, Maryland has lost 4 consecutive games and appears to be playing out the string.
Oregon won 64-54 in early January, even though Maryland’s Solomon Washington dominated the glass with 17 points and 12 rebounds. Washington enters Chicago on an absolute statistical tear, posting 3 consecutive double-doubles to close the regular season. But that wasn’t enough in January.
In a game between unranked squads with comparable strength of schedule metrics, the margins project to be narrow. Oregon is the favorite for a reason, and we trust Oregon coach Dana Altman’s tournament pedigree to cover the 3.5 points.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.