Purdue at Indiana preview, best bets

No. 12 Purdue is reeling after dropping back-to-back games, but there’s no time to sulk. Or panic.

Not with Indiana looming tonight.

The Boilermakers (17-3, 7-2 B1G) travel to Bloomington to face their bitter in-state rival. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (Peacock) at Assembly Hall.

Matt Painter generally has had his way with Indiana, but the Hoosiers have won 3 of the past 4 matchups at Assembly Hall.

The unranked Hoosiers (13-7, 4-5 B1G) recently snapped their 4-game losing streak by beating Rutgers.

IU still hasn’t beaten a ranked team this season, as if it ever needed any extra motivation against Purdue. To accomplish that tonight, the Hoosiers will have to contain B1G Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith (15.1 points per game, 9.2 assists) and the Boilers’ dominant frontcourt presence in Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn.

Indiana counters with sharpshooter Lamar Wilkerson, who ranks 5th in the Big Ten at 19.4 points per game while drilling 40.6% of his 3-point attempts. Versatile Tucker DeVries adds 14.6 points and 3.0 assists per game.

Our expert analysis breaks down the game and offers our best Purdue at Indiana bets.

Indiana vs Purdue Odds

Team	Moneyline	Point Spread	Total
Purdue	-221	-4.5 (-119)	Over 150.5 (-115)
Indiana	+181	+4.5 (-102)	Under 150.5 (-105)

Purdue enters as clear favorites with -221 moneyline odds and a 4.5-point spread, indicating oddsmakers expect the Boilermakers to win convincingly on the road. Indiana sits as home underdogs at +181 on the moneyline with the +4.5 point cushion.

After removing the bookmaker’s vig, the implied probability gives Purdue approximately 65.92% chance to win outright, while Indiana holds about 34.08% odds. For betting newcomers, a $5 moneyline wager on Purdue at -221 would profit $2.26 if they win, while that same $5 on Indiana at +181 would return a much heftier $9.05 profit should they pull the upset.

Indiana vs Purdue Team Stats

Who has the edge tonight at Assembly Hall?

Statistic	Purdue	Indiana
Overall Record	17-3	13-7
RPI	No. 9	No. 65
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.6079	0.5505
Points Per Game (PPG)	84.0	81.2
Points Allowed Per Game (PAPG)	69.1	69.4
Record vs. Top 25 (RPI)	3-2	0-3
Record vs. RPI Rank 26-50	3-0	0-2
Record vs. RPI Rank 51-100	4-1	1-1

Purdue has proven its mettle with a 3-2 record against Top 25 RPI teams and perfect 3-0 mark against teams ranked 26-50. Indiana has struggled in these spots, going 0-3 against Top 25 competition and 0-2 versus teams ranked 26-50. While the Hoosiers have feasted on weaker competition at 11-0 against teams ranked 151 or lower, their inability to secure quality wins raises serious questions about their readiness for elite Big Ten competition.

Indiana vs Purdue Best Bets

Best Bet: Purdue -4.5 (-120) at FanDuel

Despite Indiana’s home-court advantage, the statistical evidence overwhelmingly favors the Boilermakers laying less than a touchdown. Purdue’s elite 9th-ranked RPI and proven track record against quality competition makes the Boilers the logical choice against a Hoosiers squad that has wilted against top-tier opponents.

The Boilermakers’ 3-2 record against Top 25 RPI teams and 3-0 mark versus teams ranked 26-50 demonstrates their ability to rise to the occasion against premier competition. Indiana’s 0-5 combined record in these same categories tells a drastically different story.

Braden Smith’s dynamic playmaking ability gives Purdue a legitimate difference-maker who can control tempo and create advantages through his Big Ten-leading 9.3 assists per game and 1.9 steals per contest.

The 2-game losing streak works in Purdue’s favor here, as championship-caliber programs typically respond with focused, aggressive performances in rivalry settings. Expect the Boilermakers to come out with renewed intensity and physicality, looking to make a statement against a conference rival they’ve statistically outclassed all season long. Covering 4.5 points against a team they clearly outmatch in both schedule strength and results against quality opponents should be well within Purdue’s capabilities.

The Total: Over 151.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Both teams feature dynamic scorers capable of pushing this total above the posted number. Indiana’s offensive attack centers around Lamar Wilkerson, who ranks 5th in the Big Ten averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc. Tucker DeVries adds 14.6 points per contest.

Purdue counters with balanced offensive threats led by Smith’s 15.2 points per game, complemented by Fletcher Loyer’s 12.7 points on 37.4% 3 -point shooting and elite 90.2% free throw accuracy. The frontcourt duo of Cluff and Kaufman-Renn combines for over 24 points per game.