Purdue vs. Nebraska: Can Huskers defend home court as slight favorite?

The race for the Big Ten regular-season crown has a very important matchup on Tuesday night as the Purdue Boilermakers (19-4, 9-3 Big Ten) head to Lincoln for a heavyweight bout against the Nebraska Cornhuskers (21-2, 10-2 Big Ten). This high-stakes conference battle is set to tip off on February 10 at 7 p.m. ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena and will be broadcast on FS1.

Sitting just 1.5 games out of first place, the third-place Cornhuskers are looking to defend one of the toughest home courts in the nation, boasting a 12-1 record in their own building. On the other side, Purdue arrives on a 2-game winning streak, desperate to close the gap in the standings before March Madness discussions take over.

Michigan currently leads the Big Ten at 12-1 in conference play, so the winner of this game will keep pace with Dusty May’s Wolverines while the other will see their B1G regular-season title hopes take a massive hit.

It’s a classic clash of styles: Purdue’s offensive engine, driven by master facilitator Braden Smith — averaging a league-leading 15.2 points and 8.7 assists — against a Nebraska unit defined by the scoring punch of Pryce Sandfort (17.1 PPG) and the defense of Sam Hoiberg, who is picking pockets at a rate of 2.04 steals per night.

Purdue vs. Nebraska Odds

The oddsmakers have set the stage for a razor-thin contest at “The Vault,” favoring the home team by the slimmest of margins. Below are the current BetMGM betting odds for Tuesday’s showdown.

Market	Nebraska Cornhuskers	Purdue Boilermakers
Spread	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-115)
Moneyline	-118	-102
Total	Under 145.5 (-110)	Over 145.5 (-110)

This game is projected to be a coin flip, with Nebraska listed as slight 1.5-point favorites.

Statistical Breakdown: Offense vs. Defense in Lincoln

As 2 of the Big Ten’s premier programs collide, the statistical profiles of Purdue and Nebraska reveal a tug-of-war. Purdue brings one of the conference’s most lethal offenses to town, while Nebraska counters with a gritty defensive identity that has turned Lincoln into a fortress.

The table below breaks down the key metrics defining this matchup, including RPI standings, strength of schedule (SOS), and efficiency on both ends of the floor.

Statistic	Purdue (Rank)	Nebraska (Rank)
Overall Record	19-4 (9-3 Big Ten)	21-2 (10-2 Big Ten)
RPI Ranking	0.6417 (#13)	0.6425 (#12)
Strength of Schedule	0.5870	0.5557
Points Per Game (PPG)	83.0	80.0
Points Allowed Per Game	68.7	66.1
Scoring Margin	+14.2	+13.9
Record vs. RPI 1-25	2-2	2-2
Record vs. RPI 1-50	6-3	4-2
Home Record	11-2	12-1
Road Record	5-2	6-1

Analyzing the Matchup

The tale of the tape suggests very little separation between these squads. Nebraska enters with a slight edge in RPI at No. 12, fueled by that stellar 21-2 record. Its success is built on a defensive backbone allowing just 66.1 points per game — 2.6 points fewer than Purdue surrenders. The head of that defensive snake is Sam Hoiberg, whose 47 total steals (2.04 per game) disrupt opposing game plans.

Purdue, ranked No. 13 in RPI, counters with firepower. Averaging 83.0 points per contest, the Boilermakers have been tested more often, boasting a superior Strength of Schedule (0.587) and 6 wins against Top-50 RPI opponents. The engine here is clearly Braden Smith, shooting 49.6% from the field while dishing out 8.7 assists per game.

The battle on the glass will be equally pivotal. Purdue relies on Trey Kaufman-Renn (8.3 RPG) to clean up misses, while Nebraska leans on Rienk Mast (6.0 RPG) and Berke Büyüktuncel to hold down the paint. With Purdue boasting a +14.2 scoring margin and Nebraska right behind at +13.9, this should be a great matchup on both ends of the floor.

Purdue vs. Nebraska Best Bet and Prediction

With the spread sitting at a meager 1.5 points, the books are essentially asking you to pick a straight-up winner. While Purdue’s offensive metrics are dazzling, in conference play, venue is king — and Nebraska’s castle is well-fortified.

Best Bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers -1.5 (-110)

We have 2 teams with nearly identical résumés, but the deciding factor Tuesday night is the atmosphere at Pinnacle Bank Arena. The Cornhuskers have been nearly unbeatable at home, posting a 12-1 record in front of their fans. While Purdue has been respectable on the road (5-2), walking into a hostile environment against a 21-win team is a different animal.

The specific matchup to watch is Nebraska’s perimeter defense against Purdue’s ball movement. If Smith gets frustrated, Purdue’s offensive attack could sputter.

In a game likely decided by a single possession, defensive discipline and crowd energy tip the scales. Expect Pryce Sandfort (17.1 PPG) to hit the big shots and Nebraska to secure a massive statement win.

Prediction: Nebraska 75, Purdue 72