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No. 2 seed Purdue (29-8) takes on No. 11 seed Texas (21-14, 9-9 SEC) tonight in a Sweet 16 showdown in San Jose, Calif. Tip-off is set for 7:10 pm, ET (CBS).
Purdue has become a Sweet 16 regular under Matt Painter. This is the Boilermakers’ 3rd consecutive Sweet 16 trip and 7th in the past 10 seasons. The Boilers are trying to get back to the Elite Eight for the 2nd time in 3 years.
Texas most recently made the Sweet 16 in 2023, when it lost in the Elite Eight. This is just the Longhorns’ 3rd Sweet 16 appearance in the past 20 seasons.
Former Purdue forward Cam Heide faces his former squad tonight. Heide made a dagger 3-pointer to help Texas upset No. 3 Gonzaga in the previous round, setting up the revenge game narrative.
Purdue guard Braden Smith just shattered Bobby Hurley’s all-time NCAA career assists record, tallying his 1,077th assist during the opening weekend and now has 1,083 career dimes. With dynamic playmakers on both sides and an Elite Eight berth against the Arizona vs. Arkansas winner hanging in the balance, our betting preview breaks down the key performance metrics, evaluates the latest market data, and provides the best way to wager on this SEC vs. Big Ten collision.
Purdue vs Texas Odds
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | +6.5 (-104) | +256 | Over 148.5 (-114) |
| Purdue | -6.5 (-116) | -323 | Under 148.5 (-106) |
Consensus odds and subject to change
For those new to the sports betting market, the odds table above provides a clear picture of the expected game script. The minus signs indicate the favorite, meaning oddsmakers expect Purdue to win by 6.5 points on the spread. As heavy moneyline favorites at -323, the Boilermakers require a substantial upfront investment; a modest $5 bet on their outright victory would profit just $1.55.
Conversely, the plus signs designate Texas as the underdog. The Longhorns are being given 6.5 points on the spread, meaning they need to win outright or lose by six points or fewer to cover. For moneyline bettors looking for value, placing that same $5 bet on the Longhorns at +256 would yield a handsome profit of $12.80 if the SEC squad successfully pulls off the upset. Removing the sportsbook’s vig (the built-in house edge), the implied no-vig probabilities give Purdue a 73.1% chance of advancing, leaving Texas with a 26.9% true probability of continuing its Cinderella run.
Prediction site Kalshi also has moneyline markets for both teams.
Each Purdue to win contract is trading for $0.76 per, or -317 odds. A $5 investment in Purdue contracts would produce a $2 profit if the Boilermakers win.
A Texas to win contract is trading for $0.26 per, which equates to +285 odds. A $5 investment in Texas contracts would yield a $15 profit if the Longhorns win.
Click the graphic below to get started at Kalshi.
Purdue vs Texas: How Each Team Got Here
| Round | Texas | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Tournament | Early Exit (SEC) | 4-0 (Big Ten) |
| First Four | W NC State 68-66 | N/A |
| NCAA First Round | W No. 6 BYU 79-71 | W No. 15 Queens 104-71 |
| NCAA Second Round | W No. 3 Gonzaga 74-68 | W No. 7 Miami 79-69 |
Purdue vs Texas Tale of Tape
| Stat | Texas | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 82.9 | 82.2 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 76.1 | 70.1 |
| Point Differential | +6.8 | +12.1 |
| Record | 21-14 | 29-8 |
Purdue vs Texas Best Bets
When dissecting the season-long regular season metrics, the numbers reveal two highly capable scoring offenses. Texas actually holds a slight scoring edge over the AP No. 8-ranked Boilermakers, putting up 82.9 points per game compared to Purdue’s 82.2. However, the Boilermakers have commanded a distinct advantage on the defensive side of the floor.
Best Bet (Spread): Purdue To Win by 7.5 (“NO” $0.53 per contract at Kalshi)
Kalshi offers “YES” and “NO” options for each market.
It can be a bit confusing for first-time users. To simplify this recommendation, our analysis points to Purdue winning by fewer than 8 points. At a traditional sportsbook, that would look like “Texas +7.5.” At Kalshi, you’re actually choosing NO on the Purdue to win by 7.5 or more points.
Our analysis expects the Longhorns’ tested SEC pedigree to keep this game tight down the stretch. Purdue ultimately will survive and advance to the Elite Eight, but Texas has the rebounding and clutch shot-making required to cover the 7.5-point market at Kalshi.
This contract is trading for $0.53 per, or -113 odds. A $5 investment would produce a $5 profit if Texas upsets the Boilers or loses by 7 points or less.
Best Bet (Total): Over 149.5 (“NO” trading at $0.53 per contract at Kalshi)
Again, by selecting “NO,” we’re banking on the Under 149.5 cashing.
At Kalshi, this contract also is trading for $0.53 per, which equates to -113 odds.
Given that Texas has held top-35 offenses to 68.3 points per game in this tournament, and Purdue only yields 70.1 points on average, backing the Under is the most logical mathematical play. Look for a physical, half-court battle that stays squarely in the low 140s.
A $5 investment would produce a $5 profit if the teams combine for fewer than 150 points.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.