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The NCAA Tournament is here and you want to sound smart talking to your friends. I get it.
I’d also like to sound smart talking to you. I realize that’s easier said than done. After all, this thing is a bit of a crapshoot. As I often say, 18-22 year-old kids are tough to predict.
But as I sit here and look at each B1G team’s NCAA Tournament outlook, here are the things I keep thinking about.
Iowa — Get ready for a road game
By now, Iowa fans know that Cincinnati is an hour and a half from Columbus. Yeah, that’s not ideal, especially for a team that lost 5 of 6 to end the season. Even worse is the fact that in games against NCAA Tournament teams away from home, Iowa was 1-6. The only win came against No. 12 seed Oregon when the teams faced off in New York back in November. And based on the extremely high secondary ticket market, I’m guessing there will be plenty of Cincinnati fans invading Columbus.
Maryland — Mid-major land mines galore in early rounds
The Terps might have the advantage of the 6-seed, but having to face Belmont is a tricky first round draw. That loss to Nebraska left a bad taste in my mouth about Maryland, which enters having lost 3 of its final 4 games to end the season. And even if the Terps shake off the rust and get past a difficult Belmont team, I actually think it’ll be Yale — not LSU — who’s waiting there in the second round. Considering how prolific they are and the pace they play at, that’d be a brutal matchup coming off a quick turnaround.
Michigan — The Final Four ingredients are there
I know people might be backing off Michigan a bit after the B1G Championship loss, and there are still questions. Like, who will be the go-to guy down the stretch? And is the offensive firepower at the level it needs to be? Here’s the thing. I still like John Beilein’s ability to answer said questions. They’re still loaded with experienced guys from last year’s runner-up team like Zavier Simpson, Jordan Poole and Charles Matthews, and they got what I believe to be the most favorable draw for a 2-seed with Texas Tech as the 3 and Gonzaga as the 1.
And if the Wolverines to get there, well, let’s just say this better happen again.
Super Soaker/Laser Tag/Nerf Gun All-Star John Beilein #marchmadness pic.twitter.com/7OFANe4Z1T
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) March 19, 2017
Michigan State — Don’t get caught up in the unfair draw
Remember the last time Tom Izzo’s squad felt it got robbed out of a No. 1 seed and it settled for a No. 2 after winning the B1G Championship? Middle Tennessee happened. You can bet that’s not lost on Izzo. And while that was a completely different team, the message still remains the same. MSU didn’t show up with the defensive intensity it needed from the jump, and it dug itself into a deep hole. An MSU squad that hasn’t exactly been upset-proof this year need not get caught up in worrying about its seed.
Minnesota — What a prime opportunity for Richard Pitino
I’m not just talking about beating his dad’s former school. I’m talking about winning 2 B1G Tournament games and getting the Gophers to just their second NCAA Tournament trip in his sixth year in the Twin Cities. He’ll get a favorable chance to earn his first ever NCAA Tournament win against a Louisville squad that went 4-8 down the stretch. If he can do that, those hot seat rumors could fade for the time being.
Ohio State — Keep Kaleb Wesson out of foul trouble
We saw against Michigan State how devastating it was for Ohio State to only have Wesson play 16 minutes and foul out. It seems like if the Buckeyes are going to beat a battle-tested Iowa State squad, it won’t be with Wesson sitting on the bench in foul trouble. The big fella had 4 or 5 fouls in 14 of Ohio State’s games this year. In the 6 games that Wesson fouled out, OSU went 1-5. That’s not a coincidence.
Purdue — Carsen Edwards’ shooting funk terrifies me
I realize I’m preaching to the choir with Purdue fans here. There are things that would scare me about shooting numbers like this with Edwards:
- 26 percent (21 percent from 3-point range) in last 3 games
- 32 percent (23 percent from 3-point range) in last 11 games
Yeah, it’s never a good thing when your main offensive weapon seems to be struggling heading into the tournament. That 11-game stretch since Edwards went off for 38 points hasn’t been his best. Purdue did go 8-3 during that, but none of those wins came against an NCAA Tournament team with better than a 10-seed. As great as Edwards is, I’d be awfully skeptical about assuming that Matt Painter is finally going to get over the Sweet 16 hump.
Wisconsin — First to 50?
I’d take the under on this one. Oregon is in the midst of an 8-game winning streak in which it surrendered more than 61 points just once. The Ducks might not be the same defensive team as they could’ve been with a healthy Bol Bol, but man, this one has the makings of a defensive struggle. The over/under for this one is at 116.5 points, which is easily the lowest mark of any NCAA Tournament game. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Badgers could find themselves struggling to hit 60.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.