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Gaze into the 2026 Big Ten football crystal ball as we charge full steam into September and go time.
What do you see?
A few upsets you didn’t see coming, perhaps?
A few head coaches cooling off that hot seat under them, perhaps?
A tight, tense championship race among conference behemoths, perhaps?
How about a 2nd straight Heisman belonging to the Big Ten, perhaps?
Or a 4th straight national title for the conference that suddenly can’t stop winning them, perhaps?
What exactly will the Big Ten bring us over the next 5 months of mayhem? Honestly, none of us really know. But we can always gaze into that crystal ball and make our own call, and so here are 10 bold predictions for Big Ten football, circa 2026, as the league’s 18 programs launch into fall:
1. Lincoln Riley will save his job by leading USC to Playoff
USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen laid down the offseason order to Lincoln Riley — make the College Football Playoff like you were brought to Los Angeles to do or else. OK, does this automatically mean that Riley is gone if he doesn’t get this loaded Trojans roster into the 12-team field? Not necessarily, but Riley really needs this year, which is already Year 5 for him at USC, to be the year that he does what he did 3 times in 5 seasons at Oklahoma.
After going 3 for 5, so to speak, at OU, Riley can’t afford to go 0 for 5 at USC, can he? The 2026 season is Riley’s proverbial fork in the road, and he started it in Week 0 with a pretty easy victory against San Jose State, then followed that up with another stress-free win over Fresno State in Week 1. The rest of the season should be anything but easy for Riley, with a schedule that includes trips to Penn State and Indiana as well as home showdowns with Ohio State and Oregon. The Trojans get Washington at home, too, but somehow, they’ll get to 10 wins and slip into the Playoff field, satisfying an antsy fan base and saving Riley’s job.
2. Five wins will be enough to save Luke Fickell’s job, too
While Lincoln Riley desperately needs double-digit wins and a Playoff spot, Luke Fickell just needs to make Wisconsin respectable — and respected — again. Respect never used to be a problem for Wisconsin, which once upon a time made life miserable for visitors to Camp Randall Stadium. Lately, the only miserable people at Camp Randall have been the home fans, with those “Fire Fickell” chants raining down on the players and the head coach himself.
Fickell won’t magically turn the 2026 Badgers into world beaters with his revamped, $25 million roster, as that Week 1 loss to Notre Dame at Lambeau showed. But he’ll stop the bleeding a bit this fall with 5 wins, which would be 1 more victory than Wisconsin managed in 2025. Will it promise a return to relevance in 2027 and beyond? No, but it’ll provide a message of sorts that at least the Badgers aren’t going backwards, and it’ll keep Fickell in Madison for another go-around with likely another mega-million-dollar rebuilding project in 2027.
3. Penn State will return to relevancy, but no Playoff berth
The 2026 Nittany Lions have already left the 2025 Nittany Lions in the dust in one category and that’s positive publicity. While what would be the last Penn State team of the James Franklin era crashed and burned with that preseason No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll, the first Penn State team of the Matt Campbell era has racked up the offseason projections of a quick return to relevance and even a possible Playoff berth.
The return to relevance part should and will be accomplished in Year 1 under Campbell, with the cavalry of talent that’s followed him from Ames to State College. Headlining that group is quarterback Rocco Becht, and the fact that he doesn’t have to learn a new offensive system will be worth a win or 2 by itself. With a schedule that doesn’t include any of the Big Ten’s Big 3, Penn State is poised for double-digit wins. But the Playoff will fall just out of reach and there will be nothing wrong with that, because a positive tone will be set for 2027.
4. Bryce Underwood is better but still needs work for 2027
Underwood was a bit underwhelming last season after being thrown into the fire as a true freshman. But there was a lot on his plate, including being the Detroit native and 5-star can’t-miss kid who was going to instantly revive Michigan football toward the mountaintop of the sport. Underwood’s uneven play reminded everyone that he was only 18 years old at the time, and the Sherrone Moore scandal in December was the cherry on the top of a messy first campaign in Ann Arbor.
This season brings a fresh start, because Underwood will be fortunate in the long run that Kyle Whittingham was available right away to replace Moore. He’ll also be the beneficiary of the new offense that Jason Beck brought with him from Utah. Beck already saw some major progress from Underwood in fall camp, and he’s going to see progress from Underwood this fall, especially in the big games where Underwood struggled as a freshman. Underwood already showed his resilience and maturity in overcoming struggles in that Week 1 miracle win over Western Michigan. But the schedule is brutal, and while Underwood will be light years better, the full unlocking of his potential will have to wait until 2027.
5. Purdue will win a Big Ten game … maybe even 2
While Indiana was busy winning all 16 of its games last season, in-state rival Purdue was busy writing 1 of the worst chapters of its football history. There were only 2 wins overall and none of them were in the Big Ten. Barry Odom‘s first season in West Lafayette ended with an 0-9 eyesore in conference play, bringing out that old phrase about there being nowhere to go but up, right?
We’re not saying Purdue is going bowling in 2026. There won’t be 6 wins. But there will be a Big Ten win in the offering, maybe even 2 for Odom in Year 2. When will it happen? If all else fails before that (and it could), there will be winnable home games waiting in November against Maryland and Wisconsin.
6. Bob Chesney will unlock Nico Iamaleava in Year 1
Iamaleava’s college football success now rests in the hands of a couple of guys from James Madison, and he can dial Bloomington at any time to ask the folks at Indiana how that’s worked out the past few seasons. Pretty well, actually, and now it’s Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy’s turn to mold Iamaleava into the quarterback UCLA envisioned when he transferred back home from Tennessee.
There is pressure on Iamaleava, but not quite like last year when he was the prized new transfer, and Iamaleava doesn’t even have the most pressure in his own city (read: Lincoln Riley). Iamaleava will be more relaxed, a year wiser and make the James Madison Effect work for him in 2026. He also believed UCLA was being overlooked before the season started and will use that as personal motivation to make everyone forget 2025.
7. Matt Rhule will finally get Nebraska to 8 wins in Year 4
Nebraska bet on Matt Rhule amid all the doubters, signing him to a 2-year extension last fall that carries him through the 2032 season. Now, it’s time for Rhule to make good on Nebraska‘s investment — or at least finally win 8 games for the first time after posting 5, 7 and 7 victories in each of his first 3 seasons in Lincoln.
With a potential new star quarterback in UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea, Rhule will cool off that hot seat he’s been on for, like, forever and lead the Cornhuskers out of mediocrity in 2026.
8. The Heisman will remain property of the Big Ten
Last year, Fernando Mendoza became the first Heisman Trophy winner from the Big Ten since 2006. After being a stranger for a few decades, the Heisman will make itself comfortable in the clutches of a Big Ten star.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was a Heisman finalist last year, finishing 4th, and he would seem to be next in line to win it in 2026. But Sayin will split too much of the vote with his electrifying wideout, Jeremiah Smith, who will play at a Heisman level without winning the trophy after finishing 6th in last year’s voting. The 2 Buckeye standouts will instead watch as Oregon QB Dante Moore makes his decision to return to Eugene pay off by becoming the 2nd player in program history to capture college football’s most prestigious award.
9. The Big Ten will have to settle for 4 teams in the Playoff
Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, in no particular order, will fulfill their lofty promise to be playing for it all in 2026. The trio of Big Ten bullies will be joined in the 12-team field by USC, which will tip-toe into the Playoff despite that brutal schedule.
Penn State and Michigan will fall just short this fall while trending upward toward another Playoff push in 2027.
10. The SEC won’t be the Big Ten’s final 4-peat roadblock
This doesn’t mean the SEC won’t have its fill of Playoff teams. Georgia and Texas will be there, and perhaps 1 or 2 of the SEC’s 2nd tier will be in the way, too. But when the CFP semifinals hit in January, Oregon and Ohio State are going to be looking across the bracket at Miami and Notre Dame, an ACC powerhouse and a powerful independent.
And if that happens, it just might make already salty SEC fans have to root for the Canes or the Irish to prevent that unwanted Big Ten 4-peat. How’s that for a crystal ball vision in September?
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