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They did it: After 7 mind-numbing seasons of the Brian Ferentz Experience, diminishing returns on the scoreboard and a grassroots revolt by the fan base finally succeeded in forcing Kirk Ferentz to fire his eldest son as offensive coordinator. If only they could get the past 2 years back.
After a miserable effort in 2022, the decision to leave the keys in the younger Ferentz’s hands in ’23 became the premise for the sport’s cheapest joke. Against all odds, the offense got worse, finishing dead last nationally in total offense and next-to-last in scoring, coming in a full 10 points below the contractually mandated benchmark imposed on Brian Ferentz before the season. He got his walking papers in late October, on the heels of a 12-10 loss to Minnesota, yet miraculously retained play-calling duties over the last 6 games, in which the Hawkeyes averaged 10 points and topped 15 just once.
Against that backdrop, the fact that they managed to win 10 games en route to the Big Ten West title is a grim testament to the efforts of the defense and special teams, which put in heroic work on a weekly basis. (Yes, it’s also a testament to just how low-wattage the offenses were across the West Division, and to the wisdom of scrapping divisions altogether.) Iowa failed to crack the 300-yard mark in total offense in 8 of those 10 wins, and failed to score at all in 3 of its 4 losses. A merely below average offense would have been enough to keep the team in Playoff contention through the final Saturday of the regular season. Instead, it was a punchline even in victory.
The bar could hardly be set any lower for the new OC, Tim Lester, a Rust Belt lifer with a previous stint as head coach at his alma mater, Western Michigan.
Lester also has the benefit of 1) A viable starting quarterback, Cade McNamara, whose absence last year following a torn ACL in Week 5 coincided with the bottom falling out; and 2) Not sharing a last name with his boss. On the other hand, he does not have the benefit of a single established playmaker or an influx of talent via the portal. Iowa fans, scarred by years of hearing “at least it can’t get any worse” in August and watching it go downhill from there, can be forgiven if they need to see it before they believe it. But eventually the law of averages has to swing back to respectability. Right?
Hawkeyes at a Glance …
2023 Record: 10-4 (7-3 Big Ten; Lost Citrus Bowl; 24th AP)
Best Player: LB Jay Higgins
Best Pro Prospect: DB Xavier Nwankpa
Best Addition: P Rhys Dakin (Freshman/Australia)
Best Name: FB Rusty VanWetzinga
Tenured Vet: LB Nick Jackson (6th year; 49 career starts at Iowa and Virginia)
Emerging Dude: Junior DL Aaron Graves
Biggest strength: The entire back seven on defense is as bankable as a treasury bond, but let’s single out the safeties. As a group, starters Sebastian Castro, Xavier Nwankpa and Quinn Schulte make up the best patrol unit in the country. In 2023, they ranked No. 1, No. 6 and No. 9, respectively, among Big Ten defensive backs in overall PFF grade — a feat in a loaded year for highly-graded Big Ten defensive backs.
Nagging concern: No discernible trace of explosiveness among the receivers. The top returning wideouts, Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson, combined for a grand total of 2 touchdowns and 4 receptions of 15+ yards.
Looming question: Does a healthy Cade McNamara elevate the offense? McNamara has already secured a footnote in Big Ten history as the quarterback who helped save the Jim Harbaugh project from oblivion at Michigan, where he posted a 12-2 record as a starter in 2021. He’s had rotten luck since, enduring season-ending knee injuries each of the past 2 seasons. His early exit from the lineup last September marked the beginning of the offense’s spiral, and he remained limited in the spring; just in case, Iowa added Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan in May as insurance.
Locals appear to be taking the ongoing competition in preseason camp at face value, but assuming McNamara still has any ligaments left, it’s hard to imagine him getting stuck with the clipboard. Whether he raises the ceiling along with the floor is another question.
The schedule: About as favorable as it gets. The conference slate skips Oregon, Michigan, Penn State and USC, leaving an Oct. 5 trip to Ohio State as the only clearly projected loss. Of course, the line between dark horse and disappointment is always razor-thin when it comes to Iowa, but at least we should know which track the Hawkeyes are on fairly quickly based on toss-ups against Iowa State, Minnesota and Washington over the first half of the season. Take 2 of those 3, and the route to another 9- or 10-win slog through the corn stalks begins to come into view.
RELATED: Predicting every Iowa game in 2024
The upshot
It’s Iowa. The defense will be vanilla as they come and rank among the stingiest in the league. The new punter will put some inexplicable Aussie English on the ball that defies the laws of physics to prevent it from bouncing into the end zone. The offense will be … fill in the blank. Anything close to mediocrity keeps the Hawkeyes relevant well into November.