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Hickey: 4 keys to setting up an Ohio State-Michigan rematch for the national title
By Alex Hickey
Published:
An Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the CFP national championship game wouldn’t just qualify as a Game of the Century — it would be the game of any century. Never have rivals so bitter contested for stakes so high in college football.
But it will also take a heck of a feat for the Buckeyes and Wolverines to meet again. There’s a reason nothing like this has ever happened before.
Here are some keys for Ohio State and Michigan on each side of the ball in their respective semifinal matchups on Saturday.
Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU
When Michigan’s offense has the ball against TCU’s defense
Key: Play Michigan football
Pretty revolutionary, I know. But the Wolverines are perfectly engineered for ending TCU’s Cinderella season.
The Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, leading the country with 19 plays of 50 yards or more. TCU is 4th with 84 plays of at least 20 yards and 44 plays of at least 30 yards.
All of that is to say the best defense against the Horned Frogs is keeping their offense on the sideline. And few teams are better equipped to do that than the Wolverines. Michigan is 4th nationally in time of possession thanks to its dominant run game, and TCU is only 65th against the run.
The Wolverines are also 3rd in the nation with 4 interceptions thrown this season, so extra chances are hard to come by.
If Michigan simply executes its regular game plan — which it has 13 times this season — its offense has the edge.
When TCU’s offense has the ball against Michigan’s defense
Key: Prevent the big play
TCU is never out of a game thanks to its ability to get down field so quickly. The Horned Frogs rallied back from a 28-10 deficit to beat Kansas State, though the Wildcats would exact revenge in the Big 12 championship game.
However, Michigan’s defense is rarely susceptible to getting burned.
The Wolverines are 11th nationally with 16 plays of more than 30 yards allowed this season, and 14th with 40 plays of 20 yards or more allowed.
The recipe for Mike Minter’s defense is pretty similar to that of Michigan’s offense — keep doing what you have all season, and things should work out.
Peach Bowl
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
When Ohio State’s offense has the ball against Georgia’s defense
Key: Passing efficiency
Establishing the run against Georgia is destined to be a fruitless endeavor. Opponents rarely bother with it, attempting only 26.2 carries per game. That’s the lowest total in the country, which also explains why the Bulldogs are allowing a nation-low 76.9 rushing yards per game.
The only chance of beating Georgia is through the air — not that anyone has done it this season. But Missouri came closest, falling late in a surprise 26-22 thriller.
The Tigers had a formula that no other team has been able to repeat — complete 60% of passes, average at least 6 yards per attempt, and throw no interceptions.
For the season, CJ Stroud is completing 66.2% of this throws and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. Much like Michigan, Ohio State’s strength stacks up well against Georgia’s lone potential vulnerability.
If Stroud can keep the ball out of harm’s way, the Buckeyes certainly have the receiving threats to challenge Georgia’s secondary.
When Georgia has the ball against Ohio State’s defense
Key: Stop the run, because it’s coming
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett was a Heisman finalist, but he’s not who Ohio State’s defense should be worried about.
Tight end Brock Bowers is the biggest problem in the passing game, though a matchup against Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer in Week 1 gave the Buckeyes a reasonable facsimile of what they’re about to face. Mayer was relatively quiet against Ohio State with 5 catches for 32 yards.
The running game is a much greater concern.
Georgia’s rushing attack has come into its own the final month of the season, averaging 255 yards per game in the final 3 games.
Ohio State’s defense is moving the opposite direction, getting sliced for 252 rushing yards against Michigan.
However, that performance was an anomaly compared to the rest of the year. The Bucks allowed 76 rushing yards against Notre Dame, 7 rushing yards against Michigan State, and 77 rushing yards against Iowa.
All of those offenses are feeble compared to Georgia’s, so those stats should be taken with some servings of salt. And Michigan’s offensive line is the only one Ohio State has faced comparable to Georgia’s.
There’s no question Georgia has the advantage on this side of the line of scrimmage, though Ohio State isn’t completely inept against the run. But the best-case scenario for the Buckeyes would certainly involve getting ahead by a couple scores and lowering Georgia’s desire to run.
Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.