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5 areas where Michigan will be better in 2023 … and 5 areas where the Wolverines will be worse
By Luke Glusco
Published:
From an overview standpoint, the only way Michigan gets better in 2023 is by making the College Football Playoff Championship Game.
Many fans would count even that as a Pyrrhic victory if the Wolverines don’t cash in the bid by actually taking the title. A high bar has been set.
To make the incremental improvements needed to get over that bar, the Wolverines must get better in some areas and minimize the damage in areas where they drop off.
A breakdown of what some of those areas might be:
Better: Receiving balance
Top WR Ronnie Bell (62 catches, 889 yards) and top TE Luke Schoonmaker (35-418) are gone. TE Erick All, injured for most of 2022, is with Cade McNamara in Iowa.
The good news? Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, Nos. 2 and 4 on last year’s receiving yardage list, are back. Fairly even in ability and complementary in their skill sets, the 6-3 Johnson and 6-0 Wilson will join returning TE Colston Loveland (6-5, 245) and Indiana transfer TE AJ Barner (6-6, 251) as JJ McCarthy’s primary targets.
No one is likely to match Bell’s production, but Michigan could have 3 or 4 guys top 500 receiving yards this season instead of just 1.
Better: JJ’s completion %
Through 7 games last season — the halfway point of what turned out to be a 14-game season — McCarthy was connecting on a ridiculous 77.1% of his passes. He looked poised challenge the single-season record, Mac Jones’ 77.4% for Alabama in 2020. But he tailed off to finish at 64.6%. Over the final 7 games, he went 97-of-178, just 54.5%.
This year, with a balanced pass-catching group and the savvy that comes with being a 2nd-year starter, McCarthy should challenge Jones’ mark deeper into the season — and might actually break it.
Better: Red zone TD rate
If you look at Jake Moody’s kicking stats, you know Michigan settled for too many field goals in 2022.
Michigan ranked just 6th in the Big Ten (and 42nd in the nation) in scoring TDs from the red zone, converting for 6 points 47 of 71 times, 66.2%. The Wolverines settled for 18 FGs and 6 times came away empty from inside the 20.
Given McCarthy’s dual-threat abilities, that shouldn’t happen. This year, it won’t.
Better: TDs by tight ends
Schoonmaker caught 3 TD passes and Loveland 2 a year ago, an oddly low TE total given the style of Michigan’s offense. The loss of All after only 3 games may have factored in. Either way, if 5 is the number, give me the over.
Better: Donovan Edwards’ yardage
Edwards rose to the occasion when Blake Corum got hurt late last year, finishing just 9 rushing yards short of 1,000 with 5 100-yard outings. Many NFL scouts think he’s as good a pro prospect as Corum, if not better. The backfield workload should be split close to 50-50 this year, 60-40 at worst. Given that, both star runners should top 1,000 yards with room to spare.
Worse: Regular-season record
A 2nd straight perfect run to the CFP isn’t likely, just based on odds. Slip-ups happen, and the Wolverines have B1G road dates at Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State and Maryland before The Game on Nov. 25. Though Michigan has made it look easy 2 years running, beating Ohio State is no gimmie, even at home. So 11-1 looks much more likely than another 12-0.
Worse: FG kicking
Jake Moody made a school-record 29 field goals on 35 attempts last season, and he hit better than 82% of his attempts over his 5-year career at Michigan. He never missed an extra-point with the Wolverines, hitting 148 straight. He holds the UM career marks for made FGs, points and longest make — a 59-yarder in last year’s CFP semifinal loss to TCU.
Louisville transfer James Turner has one big kicking cleat to fill. And the 5th-year senior appears up to the task after going 20-of-22 on FGs last year and hitting just under 80% of his career attempts with the Cardinals of the ACC. Still, Michigan might want to avoid the type of game it had against Illinois last November, when it needed a 4-for-4 day from Moody to survive 19-17 at The Big House.
Worse: QB depth
Last year, there was a quarterback competition. McCarthy won. Cade McNamara went to Iowa. The backups now are journeyman Jack Tuttle via Indiana and some very lightly used youngsters. McCarthy needs to stay healthy, especially after September when the margin for error narrows.
Worse: September scoring average
After 1 month last year, Michigan was averaging exactly 50 points through 4 outings. The Wolverines topped 50 in 3 consecutive weeks against extremely weak non-conference competition, then beat Maryland 34-27.
There are a couple reasons UM’s time spent above the 50 barrier won’t extend into October this time around.
- Without a QB competition, Jim Harbaugh’s stand-in might call off the wolves, er Wolverines, a bit quicker against non-league check cashers East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green.
- Believe it or not, the 3 Palookas above will present more of a challenge than last year’s set, though not by much.
- Michigan will work deep down the depth chart, both to keep starters fresh and healthy and to get backups ready just in case.
- And there are 5 September games this year, with a visit from Rutgers and a trip to new-look Nebraska closing the month. UM put 52 on the Scarlet Knights and 34 on the Huskers in consecutive November weeks in 2022. But those B1G foes should still have some gas in the tank in late September.
Worse: Blake Corum’s rushing total
It’d make for a great story if Corum proved perfectly healthy and went off for a 2,000-yard season and the Heisman invite he missed out on a year ago.
But it’d be monumentally foolish to push that limit and risk another injury when near-equal Edwards is on the roster. They should both reach 1,000 rushing yards, which means neither is likely to make it to New York for the game’s most-hyped trophy presentation or even match Corum’s 1,463 rushing yards from a year ago. But the 2-back attack could lead the way to another, even-more-coveted trophy.
Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.