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5 things that will likely come true for Michigan vs. Washington
By Adam Biggers
Published:
While at Michigan, and in terms of record, coach Jim Harbaugh has owned nonconference opponents. The 7th-year Wolverines front man has only lost 2 regular-season games to those outside of his conference: Utah in 2015 and Notre Dame in 2018.
Bowl games have been a different story (1-5), but we’re not talking postseason — we’re talking regular season.
Saturday, the Wolverines host Washington in Ann Arbor, where Harbaugh has never lost to a non-Big Ten opponent.
Game predictions go two ways: Either they’re close and the one predicting looks like a genius; or they’re wrong and the one who predicted has a bit of an egg on his face.
Well, here it goes, because the following has a likely chance of happening Saturday in Ann Arbor — either genius or eggs!
Here’s to lucky guesses.
Crunch some numbers: Michigan lots; Washington, not a lot
In 2020, the Huskies went 3-1; their only defeat was a 31-26 loss to Stanford — and that loss was indicative as to how close the Huskies played everyone this past season, with their 4 games being decided by an average of 7 points.
Week 1 was close for Washington as well, losing 13-7 to Montana … yeah, Montana. Giving up 3 turnovers and totaling 291 yards of offense isn’t a recipe for success.
Michigan just put up 550 yards — the second-most under Harbaugh — during this past Saturday’s 47-14 victory over Western Michigan.
Don’t be surprised to see the Wolverines top 450 total yards while holding the Huskies to fewer than 250. Judging by the eye test, the Wolverines appear to be much stronger than the Huskies — and, as of Thursday, they were 6.5-point betting favorites.
In terms of points, Washington put up more than 40 just once in 2020. Harbaugh has publicly stated that he’s watched a lot of 2020 UW footage, so it’s safe to say that he’ll know what to expect Saturday. On the other hand, Michigan — and even just going back to 2020 — has, on a few occasions, demonstrated the ability to pile up some points.
Michigan QB Cade McNamara: Hallmark victory
Taking down the No. 20-ranked opponent after slinging his way to a nice season-opening win over WMU would be the perfect follow-up for the Wolverines’ redshirt freshman. During Week 1, McNamara was the highest-graded QB by Pro Football Focus (93.1) and completed 9 of 11 passes for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Per Sports Reference, McNamara had a QBR of 245.7 against WMU; he’s never thrown an interception in 82 career attempts and has completed at least 75 percent of his throws in 2 of his 3 starts.
Factor in that Michigan is looking for a marquee win, and that its QB is doing the same, and it’s easy to predict a banner Saturday for McNamara. Somewhere in the range of 275-300 yards, 2 TDs and a 65-plus completion percentage seems logical to forecast.
Washington’s 2-4-5 defense might have some trouble with the Wolverines’ array of route-running Saturday.
Washington QB Dylan Morris: Rough day ahead
The sophomore will make his 6th collegiate start against, perhaps, the biggest opponent he’s ever faced. Going into Ann Arbor and seeing all that maize and blue can be intimidating for anyone, regardless of Michigan’s current status.
Career-wise, Morris has complete 94 of 156 for 4 TDs and 6 INTs; he’s 27-46 with 3 INTs this season. If he couldn’t throw a TD against Montana, it’s unlikely he’ll do so against the Wolverines. Morris hasn’t thrown a TD since Nov. 18, 2020 vs Utah — the same game he also threw a trio of picks.
Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson: Stat-stuffer
On Saturday, Hutchinson — widely regarded as one of the best DEs in college football — had 4 tackles and a strip-sack; he was credited for a field goal block that was later corrected and given to Donovan Jeter. However, Hutchinson was right there in the mix — so expecting his hand to alter a kick or pass at the line is logical.
A sack or two, at least 3 or 4 TFL — Hutchinson is the type of player who could decimate Washington’s OL that helped produce just 65 rushing yards vs. Montana.
Blake Corum: All-purpose yards galore
The speedy running back will only get more reps to showcase why he is easily one of Michigan’s most important offensive players. On Saturday, the redshirt freshman had 212 all-purpose yards, including 111 rushing yards. He was the first UM player since 2016 (FB/TE Khalid Hill) to score a rushing and receiving touchdown in a single game.
Well, let’s go ahead and say he’ll have a rushing score, receiving TD and maybe even a special teams’ TD. Notching somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 total yards would be a conservative estimate: 150 on the ground, 75 via return and maybe 25-ish on a bubble-screen.
Prediction time
Things are looking good for Michigan — just like they did after Week 1 in 2020 — so go ahead an lean toward a win for Harbaugh. It’s not time to buy into the Wolverines just yet, but they do look capable of taking down a so-far-unimpressive Huskies squad that just lost to an FCS school.
Michigan 38, Washington 13
Adam Biggers brings his expertise on the Michigan beat to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.