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Indiana will come off its bye week looking to find momentum that was missing in the first 5 games.
But that won’t be easy, not with an injury to quarterback Michael Penix Jr., nor with an upcoming slate that includes 3 ranked opponents in the next 4 weeks. But as IU seeks its third straight season ending in a bowl game, there are things we know about this Indiana team and things we still do not.
Let’s take a look:
5 things we know
Penix is hurt
Indiana is calling Penix “week-to-week” after the veteran quarterback suffered a separated AC joint of his throwing shoulder in the second half of the shutout loss at Penn State last week, but it seems highly unlikely that the lefty will be back for IU’s Homecoming game Saturday vs. undefeated Michigan State. Whether he can return the next week vs. Ohio State will be determined by how he progresses in rehab.
In the meantime, IU will miss Penix’s potential, but it likely won’t miss his production, because there hasn’t been much. In his 5 starts this season, Penix has 7 interceptions and only 4 touchdowns, while completing only 54 percent of his passes.
RBs are MIA
With Tim Baldwin Jr. jumping into the transfer portal during the bye week, the Hoosiers are down — basically — to only 2 scholarship running backs. Stephen Carr has carried a bulk of the load for IU, with 386 yards. Baldwin had 103 before deciding to take off, following in the footsteps of former IU running back Sampson James, who transferred after training camp had started. (He ended up at Purdue).
The rest of the Hoosiers have 122 yards on 51 carries, a pathetic 2.4 yards per carry. Of that group, David Ellis, a former wide receiver, is the most productive scholarship running back, and he has only 12 yards on 3 carries.
The O-line is what it is
The Hoosiers have played primarily 6 offensive linemen, and the same group of five has started each of the last 4 games.
And the unit has been only OK, both in pass protection — Penix has been forced to scramble around in the pocket, which he’s become less comfortable doing with the string of knee injuries the last 3 seasons — and in run blocking. A big reason why IU is averaging only 3.4 yards per rush attempt is up front; Carr isn’t finding much room to operate, as his offensive linemen can’t get off their initial blocks and into the second level.
But it is what it is; IU doesn’t have the depth to change personnel.
Magic is gone
Last season, Indiana’s defense had a somewhat incredible ability to be in the right place at the right time.
Some of that was ability — the Hoosiers’ defense was good, with at least a couple All-Big Ten players in Micah McFadden and Tiawan Mullen — but some was chance or luck or whatever you want to call it. IU had 20 takeaways that led to more than 60 points, basically handing the offense an extra touchdown a game. It’s a huge benefit that the Hoosiers have not been able to replicate this season.
Why?
IU has played from behind frequently this season, preventing the Hoosiers from pressuring the opponent into mistakes. And even when IU has been up, the defense hasn’t been as consistent. The defense has collected 6 takeaways, only 2 of them on interceptions.
The schedule is ridiculous
Indiana has already played No. 3 Iowa, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Cincinnati — the three represent the Hoosiers’ losses — and will face 11th-ranked Michigan State, No. 7 Ohio State and No. 9 Michigan through the first weekend of November.
Yikes.
IU isn’t playing to anywhere near the level of a year ago, but the slate hasn’t helped matters either.
5 things we don’t know
The Tuttle show
During training camp, head coach Tom Allen said he thought the Hoosiers had 2 starting quarterbacks.
That theory will be tested Saturday, when Jack Tuttle, the Indiana backup, makes his first start of the season and third start in IU’s last 8 games dating to last year. Tuttle, who went 7-of-12 for 77 yards and an interception in relief vs. Penn State, is more game manager than play-maker, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t be a winner.
The junior managed his way to a victory at Wisconsin last season, when he had 130 yards and a couple touchdowns. But he’ll need help, likely by leaning heavily on a so-far pedestrian running game and the defense, which will need a return to 2020 form.
Injuries mount?
Playing 6 ranked opponents in the first 9 games of the season can take a physical toll.
Only three games through that stretch and it already has, particularly with the injury to Penix, but also to Mullen, IU’s All-America cornerback, and others. IU is already thin at quarterback and running back (not because of injury but due to departure), offensive line and perhaps at linebacker.
If IU loses another critical player or two, it could be a terribly long month.
Sticking together
Allen loves a good motto, like LEO, an acronym for “love each other.”
And that stuff works when a team is winning. But what happens when it is not? Too often, all that talk becomes nothing but noise. Will the Hoosiers tune out Allen if the second half of the season goes south? We’ll see.
Hanging a hat
For Indiana to put together any sort of winning streak, it’s going to need to find something it can rely on.
Last season, it was an opportunistic defense and big-play offense, and the Hoosiers knew they’d likely have those two things working in their favor week-in and week-out. But now? Well, IU doesn’t have much of anything going consistently well from week to week. It needs something. With Tuttle under center, maybe IU focuses more on a physical running game and short-yardage, high-efficiency passing. And if it works, then maybe Allen can lean on that.
Was it only a flash?
This is the fear, that for as great as 2020 was, that it was only a brief out-of-nowhere bit of excellence that brought Indiana to the national stage.
And that 2021 has been a harsh crash to reality, with Indiana realizing that competing in the Big Ten East — where Ohio State dominates but Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State also lurk — is going to be a Herculean task. Can Indiana, as a program, crack into that top group, not only the rest of this season but in years to come? It’s going to be a huge challenge.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.