B1G College Football Playoff contenders: How do they stack up?

The race for the Big Ten championship is about to heat up as we head into the first weekend of October.

While earning a league crown is still the holy grail, failing to do so doesn’t preclude a team from making the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

The path for a spot in the tournament has widened. The B1G boasts some formidable contenders, but do programs such as Indiana and Rutgers — both still unbeaten in October — have a legit chance at a bid?

There are 5 B1G teams ranked among the top 11 in this week’s AP poll — and 7 in the Top 25. It’s not silly to suggest that 4 teams could make it to the Playoff.

Which B1G teams are best-positioned currently to make the CFP? Let’s break it down …

The OGs:

Ohio State (4-0)

The Buckeyes defeated Michigan State 38-7 last week, overcoming some suspect early defense as well as a brief injury scare to quarterback Will Howard to amass 483 yards of total offense. Once again, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith shined with a couple of spectacular one-handed grabs. He has 5 receiving touchdowns and is 3 scores from breaking Cris Carter’s freshman record set in 1984. He also scored on a 19-yard reverse.

OSU has had a weak schedule up to this point, but tough tests loom. Ryan Day’s squad will play road games at Oregon and Penn State, and it’ll host Indiana and bitter rival Michigan as well. OSU was the preseason favorite, but there’s a feeling that we still don’t quite yet have a pulse on this team’s ceiling. Iowa visits this week looking to win at Ohio Stadium for the first time since 1991. Now the real season begins for OSU.

Penn State (4-0)

The Nittany Lions defeated Illinois 21-7 last week, and it was a bit of a chore to close out the game due to missed field goals and a red-zone turnover on downs. However, the defense played very well, which helped out an offense that has otherwise been dependable behind quarterback Drew Allar, a strong rushing attack fueled by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen as well as the aggressiveness of coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. But if there is a weakness, it could be Sander Sahaydak, who is just 1-for-4 on field goals of 40 yards or longer. The team’s next major challenge will come Week 7 at USC, and there’s also a road test at Wisconsin and the big home game against Ohio State. It’s a schedule that’s fairly manageable for a team with so much talent, so even a 1-loss Nittany Lions squad that fails to make the conference title game would be in the mix for an at-large.

Michigan (4-1)

The Wolverines notched another one-score home win last week, but the victory over Minnesota wasn’t as impressive as their win over USC. Once again, Michigan failed to reach 100 passing yards. Quarterback Alex Orji made a 54-yard improvement from the previous game (throwing for 86) and had a touchdown and an interception. Running back Kalel Mullings rushed for 111 yards and 2 scores, but how long can a one-dimensional offense work?

The defense, led by All-American Mason Graham, was stout against the Golden Gophers until wilting in the 4th quarter. The style of play just doesn’t seem sustainable.

After visiting Washington in a national title game rematch and traveling to Illinois, the Wolverines get Oregon at home and still have trips to Indiana and Ohio State. Even if they play lights-out defensively, can the QB play be good enough to keep up with some of these high-scoring offenses? One thing to consider, though: With Texas proving to be a true title contender, a 2-loss Wolverines squad would very much be in the CFP mix.

New arrivals:

Oregon (4-0)

The Ducks defeated UCLA 34-13 last week behind an efficient offense and a defense that looked really good for a second straight week. Dan Lanning’s squad, though, still has yet to look like the national championship contender that many expected it to be coming into the season. The talent on both sides of the ball is undeniable. But putting it all together completely has yet to happen. We will certainly know a lot more about this squad during its Week 7 matchup vs. Ohio State. Road tests at Michigan and Wisconsin loom, but the feeling is the Ducks are sitting pretty — especially because they have yet to peak.

USC (3-1)

Last week, once again, the Trojans didn’t exactly jump out of the gates against a B1G opponent, this time falling behind to Wisconsin at home. But Lincoln Riley’s squad played much better in the second half, erasing an 11-point halftime deficit with 28 unanswered points behind the arm of Miller Moss, who distributed the ball all around en route to over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Defensively, the new-look unit stepped up over the final 30 minutes and sealed the game with a pick-6 by linebacker Mason Cobb. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn is certainly making a difference, and Moss has seamlessly picked up after Caleb Williams moved onto the NFL. Games at home against Penn State and Notre Dame will certainly be tough tests. Can a 2-loss Trojans squad sneak in with a schedule that isn’t too difficult?

Are they for real though?

Indiana (5-0)

Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers cooking in his first season in Bloomington. IU moved to 5-0 with its 42-28 win over Maryland, which gave this Hoosiers offense trouble early. IU had 3 turnovers on its first 6 drives, but it eventually solved Maryland’s defense and put up 510 total yards. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has proven to be one of the best transfer portal additions nationally, but how good is the defense exactly? It hasn’t exactly faced the most lethal offenses, and it next gets a very weak Northwestern offensive unit. A home game against Michigan followed by a bye sets up a road exam at Ohio State in November. The other games are winnable. I wouldn’t bet against the Cignetti-Rourke combo.

Rutgers (4-0)

The Scarlet Knights still aren’t ranked, but they scored a big home win last week over Washington, which outgained them by 222 yards but struggled to consistently reach the end zone or put the ball through the uprights enough. Greg Schiano once again is doing wonders with this program, but how much more can he squeeze out of this team? Running back Kyle Monangai is a stud, the offense is pretty disciplined and the Scarlet Knights play the field position game. But is it an explosive enough offense to crack the Playoff? The schedule is fairly manageable, so there’s a chance. The next test comes this week at Nebraska, which beat Purdue last Saturday 28-10 but converted just 1 3rd down and missed 3 field goals. A game at USC looms large …it’s not a sexy brand of ball, but it’s working.

Meanwhile, Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska all have 1 loss and will have a lot to prove in October as well.

Dave Miller

Dave Miller has covered the college football landscape nationally since 2009 with stops at National Football Post and Campus Insiders. In addition to contributing to Saturday Tradition, he can be seen on Stadium Network.