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Breaking down the over/under regular season win totals for B1G East teams
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It’s summer, which means it’s officially time to go through schedules and predict exactly how teams will finish with 100 percent accuracy.
Let’s do it.
Instead of picking exact records, though, I think it’s interesting to look at over/under regular season win totals set by oddsmakers. With the NFL draft over, BetDSI.com set the over/under for each B1G team’s regular-season win total.
Yesterday, I broke down the B1G West. Today, I broke down the B1G East:
Ohio State
Over/under — 10 wins
The bet — Over
Last year marked the first time that Urban Meyer didn’t get to 11 regular-season wins at Ohio State. Betting on the guy who’s 47-3 vs. the B1G to lose multiple conference games doesn’t seem like a wise move, so as long as Ohio State gets past that neutral site showdown against TCU, that money should be safe. Even with all of that defensive production they lost, Ohio State still has arguably the top returning defensive player in the country in Nick Bosa to play alongside a group of extremely talented young front 7 guys. The Buckeyes might have the best 1-2 punch in college football with J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, not to mention they had all of their receivers return. Yeah, another 11-1 regular season seems likely.
Penn State
Over/under — 9.5 wins
The bet — Under
This is tough because I believe the floor for Penn State’s 2018 squad is high, and I do believe the Lions deserve to start the season somewhere in the 9-12 range. But without Joe Moorhead, Saquon Barkley, Mike Gesicki and DaeSean Hamilton, I question if the offense can sustain the pace it was on the last two years. Even with Trace McSorley back, this might not be a unit that puts up 40 points a game like we’re used to seeing. Besides, the conference schedule is pretty brutal. Facing Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State is tough enough, not to mention crossovers with Iowa and Wisconsin. The good news is that Michigan is the only road game of that group. Still, winning the majority of those showdowns — not to mention a tricky road game at Pitt — would be no small feat for a team in transition like Penn State.
Michigan
Over/under — 8.5 wins
The bet — Over
With Shea Patterson, anything less than 9-3 or 10-2 would be a disappointment. He has potential to be that kind of game changer. I understand that his numbers against all-world defenses aren’t great yet, but I’ve watched the former Ole Miss signal-caller enough to know that he’s far and away the best quarterback Jim Harbaugh has worked with at Michigan. Couple that with a defense that’s a yearly lock to dominate with Don Brown and Michigan should certainly be in position to compete for a division title by the time The Game rolls around. Not that the Wolverines want to even think about this, but they could lose their challenging road tilts at Notre Dame, at Michigan State and at Ohio State and still hit the over. Smart bet.
Michigan State
Over/under — 8.5 wins
The bet — Over
Nobody returns more production in all of college football than Michigan State. Despite the fact that the program dealt with a tumultuous offseason for the second straight year — something that was the Spartans’ own doing — it’s still in shape to win a lot of games in 2018.
Yes, the schedule is challenging. A trip to Arizona State will be interesting in Year 1 of the Herm Edwards experiment, but as long as the Spartans don’t slip up there, they should be a good bet to hit nine wins. I will say, though, that crossover schedule vs. Northwestern, vs. Purdue and at Nebraska is one sleeper game after another. Still, give me another 9-win campaign in East Lansing.
Indiana
Over/under — 5.5 wins
The bet — Under
The bar at Indiana always has been and probably always will be 5.5 wins. Go to a bowl game? Success. Miss out on the postseason? Failure. It’s pretty cut and dry. So why am I taking the under for Year 2 of the Tom Allen era? Well, I have major questions about the first major transition the offense will go through without Kevin Wilson (losing Simmie Cobbs and Ian Thomas is tough). I’m also curious how the defense copes without Tegray Scales and Chris Covington. As encouraging as the defensive improvement was, getting to 6 wins will be an uphill battle.
Maryland
Over/under — 4.5 wins
The bet — Over
Here’s the thing. With a non-bowl team like Maryland who has a schedule loaded with B1G East opponents and a non-conference tilt with Texas, conventional wisdom says take the under and don’t look back. Add in the fact that the Terps lost their best player on each side of the ball and that task looks even more daunting.
But here’s the other thing.
This is Year 3 of the DJ Durkin era. All that guy has been doing is racking up solid recruiting class after solid class. This is the year that we’re really going to see his identity take over. I can’t imagine that Maryland’s win total stays exactly where it was at last year. And while the East is no picnic, the Terps have crossover draws vs. Minnesota, at Iowa and vs. Illinois. Don’t forget that even though everyone expects big improvements from Texas, that’s a team Maryland beat handily in Austin to kick off last season. That’s my long way of saying I’ll bank on at least five wins in College Park.
Rutgers
Over/under — 4 wins
The bet — Over
I’m not saying that I expect Rutgers to stay on the same field as East powers just yet, but here’s something to consider. Instead of hosting a Playoff contender like Washington, Rutgers travels to play Kansas. In football, not basketball. Add in home games against the likes of Texas State, Buffalo, Illinois and Indiana. That easily could be five wins right there. That’s not including a game against a Maryland team that Rutgers beat last year, nor is it including homecoming vs. Northwestern. That’s favorable for Chris Ash, who returns the third-highest percentage of its production among B1G teams. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Rutgers made a bowl game.
Look at me getting bold in the beginning of May.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.