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With the first rankings of the College Football Playoff released, all the relevance of the guest list of parties I threw for imaginary friends in my youth, now is a good time to check in on Big Ten futures.
Awful.
One word needed to describe the results. No need to review the missed notes on all but one play, the lone winner with any chance of cashing being Maryland at under four wins. Northwestern over 6.5 is a loss, same goes for over Nebraska 8.5, Indiana under 6.5, Penn State under 8.5, and Minnesota under 7.5.
Bad picks, all of them. Sticking with the trend, Maryland will beat Nebraska next week to push that bet. However, out of season picks do not go into the overall week-by-week record because I’m allowed to show myself in the best light possible.
Stickler’s note: All lines taken from mybookie.ag. Lines may have shifted since the column’s inception. I thought those cans of bourbon baked beans left at the parish food pantry were going to families in need?
Penn State vs. Minnesota +7.5 o/u 47.5
The play: Under
The logic: With every last bit of acclaim and accolades directed to Chase Young and the Ohio State defense, Penn State enters the game Saturday with a top five defense specific to yards per play. That sort of doom and destruction, along with averaging 3.3 sacks per game is the potential turnover force Minnesota has not faced the entire season.
By now it’s well established among even the marginally interested that Minnesota’s defense faced a bevy of backup quarterbacks in the 2019 season. That stat is more of an indictment of the Gophers’ close victories than some accusatory comments on the defense that is up to face its biggest task to date.
Penn State clawed and scraped its way past Iowa on the road earlier in the season. Expect the Nittany Lions to exhibit the same sort of steady patience on Saturday that has the two teams trading punts and field position early in the game. Throw in the Big Ten meteorological bag of misery that includes but is not limited to rain, snow, and sleet, all staples of November games, and the two teams should contribute scores to come in under the number.
Ohio State vs. Maryland +42.5 o/u 65
The play: Ohio State
The logic: Sure, 42.5 is Zero Mostel fat, and giving up that sort of number on the road seems an exercise in silliness, but Ohio State returns from the bye with a spring practice in November. Maybe an early drive stalls, but the sort of offense with the eighth highest yards per play average coupled with the defense that allows the fewest yards per play in the country takes its show on the road for a formal dismissal of hope, optimism, and competence of Maryland football.
The Terps are in a free-fall and on the back end that includes Ohio State after Michigan the week before. Such unbalanced competition necessitates the advent of a running clock in college football. Bonus bet: I’m setting the number of Ohio State blocked punts at .5. Under pays out at +120.
Illinois vs. Michigan State -14.5 o/u 45
The play: Illinois
The logic: 2015 called and asked what on earth happened to its version of the Big Ten. I don’t want to deem Illinois’ recent success and Michigan State’s failure as two ships passing in the night, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in my mind as to how Michigan State rediscovers the sort of mojo that made the Spartans the most dangerous program in the conference, specific to the B1G’s hierarchy. Michigan State enters the game averaging 3.6 yards per play in its last three games and the suspension of linebacker Joe Bachie leaves Michigan State without one of its leaders on defense.
Illinois for its part has neither razzled nor dazzled. The Fighting Illini are second nationally in takeaways per game and have protected the football well for the better part of the year including no interceptions thrown in over a month. Illinois wants to run the ball and control the tempo. There is not enough quick strike to Michigan State to cover 14 and the hook.
Last week’s record: 2-1
Overall record: 16-13-1
Status on the card: I’ve been fixating on picks for the better part of three weeks in hopes that I get an invite to Survivor Series that includes actual wrestling and not the battle of cover bands judged on the merits of who belts out “Eye of the Tiger” with the most verve.
Nick is a writer for saturdaytradition.com. Your overuse of GIFs forced him away from Twitter. He removed himself from consideration in the Vanderbilt heading coaching search.