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B1G Monday Morning: It’s time to trust Michigan

Ryan O'Gara

By Ryan O'Gara

Published:

Weekly takeaways, perspective and trends in the Big Ten.

In college football, we always look for little signs here or there that we think are revealing about what’s to come. We poke holes in teams. We pump teams up. In the case of Michigan, given how it has failed to reach the mountaintop (or just the top of the Big Ten East) under Jim Harbaugh, an undefeated start comes with warranted skepticism.

“Well, Washington did lose to an FCS school.” “Well, Rutgers did hold Michigan to 1 first down in the second half.” “Well, Wisconsin is having a down year.” Well, nothing.

After No. 14 Michigan’s convincing 38-17 win over now-unranked Wisconsin, what more do you need to see to believe in the Wolverines? And you can’t say beat Ohio State, because, well, beating one of the premier programs in the country is not the only bar for legitimacy. (And also, that game is still 8 weeks away, and this is a Week 5 column.)

Michigan (5-0), despite playing as well as it has, was still a 1.5-point underdog against a Wisconsin team playing as bad as it has in a long time. The public hasn’t quite caught on yet that Michigan isn’t the same overhyped team of past years.

It seems too crazy to say it, but Michigan is ranked No. 9 in the country after starting the season unranked. But look around college football. Outside of Alabama and Georgia, there are no dominant teams. In the preseason, it seemed inevitable that the 4 teams in the College Football Playoff would be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma. Yawn. Nearly halfway into the season, we have a mountain of evidence that only Alabama belongs in that group right now.

Is Michigan in that next tier behind Alabama and Georgia? Yeah, probably, with fellow B1G teams Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. If we lined up those 4 teams in a round-robin, they’d probably all beat each other. And the pollsters agree, as each of those is in the top 9 in the latest AP poll. Do you know for certain that Michigan can’t beat Cincinnati? Indiana hung with the Bearcats. Or Oklahoma? Nebraska hung with the Sooners. There are limitations with Michigan, but there are with every team that isn’t Georgia or Alabama. And there is so much to like right now.

Given how uninspiring Michigan’s 2020 season ended and ensuing uncertainty of the status of head coach Jim Harbaugh, it is shocking to see that, halfway through its schedule, Michigan is a legitimate top 10 team. This was a program on a highway toward nowhere, with a revolving door at QB, high turnover on the coaching staff and other East programs rising. And yet, Michigan looks as good as it ever has in Year 7 of the Harbaugh Era. Couple that with some of the usual top dogs in the sport showing some vulnerability, and well, how can you not feel good about this Michigan start?

In a way, this season has been the inverse of every Michigan season. What normally happens is that Michigan starts out ranked too high and the fan base and media get excited, but then the Wolverines come crashing back to Earth. Like last season, when Michigan climbed all the way to No. 13, only to lose to unranked Michigan State at home in Week 2. Or when No. 11 Michigan was trounced at Wisconsin in Week 4 in 2019. Or when No. 14 Michigan opened the season with a loss at Notre Dame. Or when No. 7 Michigan fell to unranked Michigan State at home in Week 6. The last time Michigan was actually able to sustain some early-season success was 2016, when it started 9-0 with 7 wins by 17 or more points.

For once, Michigan wasn’t overrated to start the season this year. The Wolverines weren’t in the top 16 of the preseason poll for the first time since Harbaugh’s first season in 2015. And no one really made a fuss about it. It didn’t feel like the Wolverines deserved to be after last season. But it’s almost given them an edge. You can hear it in the comments from guys like Aidan Hutchinson, who acknowledged the chip on his shoulder. “We’re coming for everything,” Hutchinson said during a recent episode of the Pro Football Focus Tailgate podcast.

You can tell with how they are playing — confident. When was the last time a Michigan team knew its identity like this? And so easily adjusted when necessary?

It’s no secret the Wolverines are a run-first team, but going against the No. 1 run defense in the country in Wisconsin, Cade McNamara was able to deliver timely throws and move the sticks. McNamara is playing at a very high level this season, even if the numbers don’t necessarily say it, and the scary thing is that he is probably not Michigan’s best QB. That would be freshman JJ McCarthy, who came in randomly for a few plays here and there before getting a series to himself in the fourth quarter.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1444381021735170048?s=20

Defensively, Hutchinson is having a Chase Young-type season in terms of impact. You have to put multiple linemen on him just to slow him. He got held twice (and drew the flag) and still forced the QB into a sack. When you add in a fresh look from new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald that doesn’t play as much single-high safety, well, this just feels like a rejuvenated group.

To beat a Wisconsin team like this — one that had outscored Michigan 89-25 the last 2 years — is an indication that this team is different. While the Badgers have a lot of issues and are having a down season, they did lead 2 current top-15 teams (No. 4 Penn State and No. 14 Notre Dame) in the fourth quarter. Michigan, however, led by 10 and had extended it to 21 less than 5 minutes in.

After years of over-hyping storied programs like Michigan, Texas, USC, Florida State, Miami and Nebraska, it feels like the media have overcompensated and are just waiting for another crushing loss. It’s usually right around the corner with some of the programs. But strip away the name, and Michigan would be considered a very good football team, with a top-40 offense and a top-15 defense.

There will always be opportunities to poke holes in non-Alabama teams, and that’s fine. But it’s time to acknowledge that this Michigan team is legitimately good — even if Hutchinson and the Wolverines seem just fine sliding underneath the radar.

The development to monitor

No. 11 Ohio State 52, Rutgers 13. OK, if Ohio State is going to play like this, everything I just wrote about Michigan is irrelevant. CJ Stroud, one week after sitting out to rest his shoulder, played the best game of his young career. Yeah, he can hit Chris Olave on a crossing route and the future first-round pick will take it to the house for a 56-yard TD. And he can hit another future first-round pick, Garrett Wilson, on a crossing route, and he’ll take it 32 yards to the house.

But Stroud was also making throws like this:

And like this:

Ohio State hasn’t even been that good this season (relatively, of course), but it has the No. 1 offense in the country now after putting up 541 total yards against Rutgers. The Buckeyes are just so deep at every position. TreVeyon Henderson may well be the best running back in the country, but the Buckeyes are pacing him — just 8 carries each of the last 2 weeks. But he is averaging 9.4 yards per carry and scores a TD about once every 7 times he touches the ball.

Ohio State led a solid Rutgers team in its home stadium by 24 less than 12 minutes into the game. This is the dominance B1G teams have come to expect from Ohio State, and it’s precisely the opposite of what we’ve seen from Ohio State this season, as it has trailed at halftime twice and only led by 7 against Tulsa.

Rutgers (3-2) has a ways to go before it is on a level to where it can compete with Ohio State, but nevertheless, the Buckeyes are licking their chops with 2 teams coming off bad losses (Maryland and Indiana) up next. How good can Ohio State get before Penn State comes to town on Halloween weekend?

The surprise result

Nebraska 56, Northwestern 7. It wasn’t so much that Nebraska won, as it was an 11-point favorite. It was how the Huskers completely overwhelmed Northwestern.

Nebraska (3-3) hit Northwestern like a freight train; a 70-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage, 3 TDs in the first 11 minutes and a 28-point halftime lead. It was arguably the most dominating, impressive, every-superlative-you-can-think-of performance that Nebraska has had under head coach Scott Frost, at least against a Big Ten opponent.

When this program has been searching for any bit of positivity to grasp onto, it’s hard not to overreact. On the one hand, this was Nebraska’s first win over a Power 5 program this season, and it came against arguably the worst team in the Big Ten. On the other hand, is Nebraska the second-best team in the West? Who else in the West (aside from Iowa, obviously) could put forth this type of an effort — 657 total yards and 427 rushing yards — against a B1G opponent?

After Iowa, the West is begging for someone to emerge, and dare I say it, Nebraska is that team. Saying that just 5 weeks after Nebraska lost to Illinois is surprising, but that doesn’t make it untrue. When Nebraska plays like this — no turnovers, no sacks allowed, only 19 penalty yards — these types of results are certainly possible.

Adrian Martinez has faced plenty of criticism throughout his up-and-down career, but the guy just keeps coming back and delivering. He is having the best season of his career, by far, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt with 6 TD passes and only 2 INTs, a sharp improvement from the 7.5 yards per attempt he averaged in 3 seasons prior. Halfway through the season, he already has a career-high 9 rushing TDs. He’s never going to be a perfect player, but it’s hard to find a guy doing more for his team right now than Martinez.

Tracking non-conference B1G opponents

Since so much of the narrative and arguments surrounding teams and conferences deals with how their opponents fare throughout the season (making the result look better or worse), I’m going to track notable developments each week. Plus, it’s just fun to see if those early-season results look better or worse as the season goes on. Here are 3 noteworthy results:

1. Oregon

The Ducks shockingly lost at Stanford 31-24 in overtime and are now ranked No. 8 — behind Ohio State — in the latest AP poll, even though they beat the Buckeyes. Oregon is also ranked below No. 3 Iowa and No. 4 Penn State. The Ducks are going to have to win out or the PAC-12 — with no other teams in the top 20 — will likely be shut out of the College Football Playoff again. That is huge for the B1G because it also seems like the ACC — with no teams in the top 18 — could also be left out.

2. Auburn

It felt inevitable that the Tigers (4-1) would slide out of the Top 25, but they pulled a bit of a surprise result in winning at LSU. If Auburn can win 8-9 games and hang around the Top 25, that would be an excellent result for Penn State, which beat Auburn in Week 3.

3. Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes were ranked 24th when they lost to Michigan State in Week 3, but it’s unlikely they will be joining the AP poll again anytime soon. After losing to Virginia, Miami is 2-3. Unfortunately for the Spartans, it may be tough to count this as a high-quality win by the end of the season. We’ll see.

MVPs

The best B1G players in Week 5.

1. QB Adrian Martinez (Nebraska)

Ho hum, another gem of a game from Martinez, who completed 11 of 17 passes for 202 yards and a TD, adding 50 yards and 3 scores on the ground. For the second time in 3 weeks, he took a seat in the third quarter.

2. DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)

One of the top defensive players in the country, Hutchinson is bringing it every week. He is PFF’s highest-graded edge rusher and is now No. 5 on their Big Board. Michigan tallied 6 sacks, and none were Hutchinson’s, but he is a wrecking ball that requires constant attention from offensive lines.

3. QB CJ Stroud (Ohio State)

The redshirt freshman returned from his 1-game break to rest his shoulder relaxed and ready to go, throwing for 5 TDs and 330 yards on only 23 pass attempts, solidifying himself as the guy for the Buckeyes moving forward. He had 4 TD passes in the first half as Ohio State built a 45-6 lead.

4. Iowa’s defense

It’s hard to give it to one guy because this was a team effort. Taulia Tagovailoa entered Friday’s game as PFF’s highest-graded QB in the country with 158 drop backs and 0 turnover-worthy plays. By the time the game ended, he had thrown 5 interceptions. The Hawkeyes lead the country with 12 interceptions and 16 forced turnovers.

Also, look at this stat.

5. RB Chase Brown (Illinois)

Brown became the third player in the country to run for at least 257 yards in a game this season in the Illini’s 24-14 win over Charlotte, joining fellow B1G backs Kenneth Walker III and TreVeyon Henderson. What’s crazy is that Brown had 2 games in his 4-year career in which he had more than 100 yards. Illinois has had 4 different leading rushers in 5 games, so the fact that one player had this many yards in a balanced backfield was surprising. But when you’ve got a hot hand, feed it.

Ryan O'Gara

Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.