B1G Monday Morning: Why Wisconsin, not Ohio State, will win the Big Ten (and other 2021 hot takes)

There is an elite class in college football. That much is obvious. Ohio State has won 4 straight Big Ten titles, Oklahoma has won 6 straight in the Big 12, Clemson has won the last 6 ACC titles and Alabama has won 5 of the last 7 SEC championships.

And what do you know, those are the top 4 teams in the preseason AP Top 25. It’s understandable; why would voters think anyone else in college football is capable of penetrating that bubble and knocking one of those teams off its respective throne? The CFP has featured at least 3 of those programs in every year except its debut season in 2014.

Interestingly enough, though, those 4 teams have never made it to the CFP in the same season. There is always a party crasher. It was Michigan State in 2015, then Washington in 2016, Georgia in 2017, Notre Dame in 2018 and 2020 and LSU in 2019. While that fantastic foursome of Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson and Alabama is the safe bet, odds are that there will be one “outsider.”

In 2021, that team will be Wisconsin. How’s that for a hot take?

While I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Ohio State win the Big Ten again and go to the CFP for the third straight year, I don’t think it’s a hot take to declare Ohio State as the most vulnerable of the elite class.

The Buckeyes are deep, talented and well-coached — all key ingredients to surviving the roller-coaster of a 9-game conference schedule and a premier non-conference matchup with Oregon. But they have a lot of questions that have yet to be answered.

• Ohio State does not have a QB on the roster who has thrown a pass in college. This Thursday night at Minnesota will be the first time CJ Stroud attempts a pass. While all indications are that Stroud will be very good (just as he was in the spring game), no one knows for sure until the lights come on. And with 3 other talented QBs breathing down his neck trying to see the field, how will Stroud handle that pressure?
• While QB is a minor concern, the defense is a much more realistic point of weakness. Ohio State struggled in allowing over 400 yards per game last season (compared with 259 in 2019). The Buckeyes allowed a B1G-worst 304 passing yards per game. The secondary struggled, as potential first-round pick Shaun Wade experienced some growing pains in moving from the slot to the outside. Sevyn Banks is projected by many to be an All-B1G corner, but he had just a 55.4 PFF grade last season. Marcus Williamson was even worse at 47.5. Josh Proctor, a projected starter at safety, had a 63.9 grade.
• The lack of an elite pass rusher can’t be discounted. The Buckeyes weren’t the same without a Bosa brother or Chase Young-level player hurrying the QB into poor throws. Zach Harrison, a former 5-star recruit, hasn’t quite filled those shoes yet heading into his third season, but the hope is that this is the season he emerges.
• Ohio State is also replacing all 3 starting linebackers from last year. Pete Werner started 35 games, Tuf Borland started 31 and was a 3-time captain. Baron Browning was a third-round pick in the NFL Draft. That’s a lot to replace.

Justin Fields was an elite QB who covered up weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. While Stroud looks to be very good, no one is expecting him to play at the level of Fields the last 2 years.

With the issues in the secondary, the lack of a proven elite pass rusher and a brand new linebacking crew, Ohio State is susceptible in ways it hasn’t been the last 2 ½ years as it has racked up 21 straight Big Ten wins.

With those potential flaws in mind, I believe everything is lining up for Wisconsin to be the team to capitalize.

If you’ve noticed in the last 2 Big Ten title games, the Buckeyes have looked vulnerable for a bit, but the opponent has lacked that elite QB to bring it home. With all due respect to Jack Coan and Peyton Ramsey, Graham Mertz is a significant upgrade. He is the biggest reason to believe that a Wisconsin program that routinely churns out 10-win seasons without great QB play can take that next step and topple the mighty Buckeyes.

And conversely, the lack of a difference-making QB is why I’m not as high on Iowa as some others are, despite a very good roster. Spencer Petras isn’t the type of QB who can beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten. He is more of a game manager in the mold of Ramsey and Coan.

Mertz is the high-end QB that the Badgers have never had, minus the one year of Russell Wilson. The No. 65 overall recruit in the 2019 class had his ups and downs as a freshman last year, but he was playing with an injured shoulder and passing to backup wide receivers. With Kendric Pryor and Danny Davis back, plus tight end Jake Ferguson, that passing attack will look more like it did in the first 2 games (when Wisconsin averaged 47 points) versus the next 4 (when Wisconsin averaged 10). Plus, Jalen Berger looks like he will be the next great Badgers running back and should be in for a big season running behind another massive offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin has the best group of linebackers in the conference and one of the top secondaries, too. The only question mark is up front, where the Badgers have 1 returning starter. But I feel confident in defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard — who turned down the defensive coordinator job with the Green Bay Packers to stay with the Badgers — finding a way to cover up any weakness up front.

Wisconsin may stumble once along the way, but ultimately it will have enough quality opponents (Penn State, Notre Dame and Iowa) in the regular season in order to make the CFP.

There is clearly a tier of 5 teams at the top of college football right now, with Georgia being the fifth. It’s not a coincidence that the quarterbacks from those schools (Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, JT Daniels, Stroud and DJ Uiagalelei) are the 5 leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy. You need an elite QB to play at this level, and Wisconsin finally has it with Mertz.

The Badgers also have the other ingredients to break into this group, at least for 1 year — a great coach in Paul Chryst, a reliable offensive line, a terrific defense and a demanding-enough schedule.

Pencil the Badgers in for a semifinal game with Clemson.

My other hot takes …

This is Scott Frost’s last season with Nebraska

I know you watched the same game that I did. Let’s face it, the college football world was laughing at Nebraska after the 30-22 loss to Illinois. The way you lose matters. Stupid penalties, sloppy special teams play and an inability to handle any sort of adversity are culture problems. That’s something Frost can control.

Besides that, let’s look at the bigger picture. While Frost is the golden child (and probably already would’ve been gone if he wasn’t the QB of the last national title team there), there are people who are clearly growing tired of him and his program. How else do these leaks happen? It wasn’t an accident that the public found out Nebraska tried to get out of the Oklahoma game, or that Nebraska was under NCAA investigation for something that seems pretty minor. There are obviously people on the inside who want him gone.

When you add in the fact that this is a new athletic director who isn’t tied with Frost, I don’t think there’s any question that Frost’s seat is blistering hot right now.

If a firing happens during the season, I’ll predict it’ll be right after the Minnesota game. The Huskers have really struggled with the Golden Gophers the last 2 years, and if they lose in embarrassing fashion, they would have a bye week for the new coach to regroup. Don’t forget, Nebraska closes with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa to finish out the season.

Sean Clifford will be a Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year candidate

I don’t think there’s any sugarcoating that Clifford was bad last year. He temporarily got benched for Will Levis (who now is starting at Kentucky) and seemed to really regress from a promising sophomore season. But let’s look at the bigger picture.

Clifford got a full offseason in with new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who comes in with a terrific reputation after leading a top-20 offense at Texas. Yurcich’s offenses at Ohio State and Oklahoma State have routinely out-performed Penn State.

Last year was such an odd year at Penn State, and a tough year to have a new OC. The Nittany Lions lost their top 2 running backs early on (one in the preseason and the other in the season opener), then lost their star tight end. But with Jahan Dotson cemented as one of the top wideouts in the conference and Noah Cain back to lead a strong running back room, I just don’t see how this offense isn’t really good. Clifford won’t have Levis to worry about overtaking him.

Besides, I’m looking around the rest of the league, and there aren’t a lot of elite QBs. Michael Penix Jr. is great but also an injury risk, Taulia Tagovailoa has a ton of upside but is inconsistent, and Stroud is unproven. There is an opening for Clifford.

Tyler Goodson wins the B1G rushing title

This may seem like a spicy take because Mohamed Ibrahim is really, really good. But so is Goodson. Each averaged about 5.3 yards per carry. The difference was workload.

I think Goodson will get more than the 17.9 carries he averaged last year at Iowa with Mekhi Sargent now in the NFL. And I worry that Ibrahim will wear down after leading the country with 28.7 carries per game last season for Minnesota.

Both have terrific offensive lines and should be among the country’s top rushers, with Goodson slightly ahead.

Bret Bielema wins the most games of any first-year Power 5 head coach

This is a little bit of cheating after already getting to see Illinois play once. I’ll admit, I didn’t think Illinois was going to win much this season, but I’m recalibrating. Illinois, all of a sudden, looks like it could be 4-2, 5-1 or even 6-0 going into a highly anticipated game with Wisconsin.

The biggest competition for Bielema will be Steve Sarkisian at Texas. Who knows how the Longhorns will fare in the opener against a ranked Louisiana squad. And then they play at Arkansas, which surprised a ton of people last year.

Given Bielema’s track record at Wisconsin, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he leads Illinois to a bowl game. Given the Illini’s track record, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they lost next week to UTSA.

Ryan O'Gara

Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.