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B1G stock report: Iowa LB Jack Campbell soaring, league QBs scuffling

Alex Hickey

By Alex Hickey

Published:

It may be Sunday, but the stock market is open at Saturday Tradition.

This is your weekly recap of the Big Ten’s biggest movers in either direction each given week.

And since we want you to become informed investors, we won’t just recap the obvious — we’ll tell you whether this movement will be permanent, or just a temporary illusion.

Stock up

1. Jack Campbell

How the Hawkeyes keep doing it, I don’t know. But Iowa’s knack for coming up with absolutely crucial takeaways has been a weekly occurrence in 2021. And the same guy always seems to be in the middle of it.

Iowa was in an unexpected 14-7 second-half hole to Colorado State when linebacker Jack Campbell recovered a Rams fumble at the Iowa 6. One play later, the Hawkeyes tied the score and never looked back.

Buy or sell: Buy.

Campbell had 18 tackles on top of his fumble recovery Saturday. And that might not even be the best thing he has done this season.

A week ago, Campbell forced a fumble at the goal line as Kent State was driving with a chance to cut Iowa’s lead to 16-14. Two weeks ago, there was Campbell again, returning an Iowa State fumble 6 yards for a touchdown to put the Hawkeyes up 21-10.

It’s early to be talking awards, but it’s hard to imagine anyone is putting together a better resume for the Butkus Award than Campbell.

2. Michigan’s turnover margin

The Wolverines have made it 4 games without turning the ball over. Michigan is the only team in the country that has yet to cough it up.

That’s no small feat after Saturday’s game against the Rutgers defense, which came into this week ranked 4th nationally with 8 takeaways through its first 3 games.

Buy or sell: Buy.

When you play as conservatively on offense as Michigan has this season, the entire philosophy is built around minimizing chances for turnovers. Quarterback Cade McNamara is averaging 16 pass attempts per game as Michigan aspires to be the most run-heavy Big Ten champion since Michigan State in 1987.

3. Rutgers’ defense

The Scarlet Knights are the real deal on defense.

You can call their propensity for creating turnovers fluky, but even without one against Michigan they played a dominant second half. The Wolverines were leading the nation at 350 rushing yards per game before being limited to 112 by Rutgers. Michigan only managed a single first down in the second half.

Buy or sell: Buy with caution.

Rutgers simply loaded up the box against Michigan as the Wolverines demonstrated no interest in taking shots downfield. It remains to be seen if the secondary will hold up its end of the bargain if challenged. But it’s impossible not to like what Greg Schiano’s cooking in New Jersey.

4. Illinois’ special teams

When you’re the Illinois football team, you’re going to find yourself in a lot of kicking situations. And the Illini are damn good at it.

Punter Blake Hayes averaged 48.5 yards per punt at Purdue, including a career-long 80-yard boomer. Four of his 6 punts were downed inside the 20.

Kicker James McCourt also has a mighty leg, nailing 3 field goals including a 51-yarder to provide of of Illinois’ scoring in a 13-9 loss.

Buy or sell: Buy.

The only problem for Illinois is that the punter and kicker are probably the two best players on the team.

5. Northwestern’s running attack

The Wildcats ran wild against Ohio University, finishing with 373 rushing yards. That attack was led by Evan Hull, who had 216 yards on 22 carries. Hull’s haul included a 90-yard touchdown that was the longest for a Northwestern running back since 1961.

Buy or sell: Sell.

Unfortunately for the Cats, there are no more Ohio U types of teams on the schedule. Without adequate quarterback play to keep defenses honest, you won’t be seeing a performance like this against a Big Ten defense.

6. Nebraska’s defense

The Blackshirts looked worthy of their nickname for the second straight week, though somehow it turned out to be another loss.

Nebraska completely stifled Michigan State in the second half, holding the Spartans without a first down a week after making Oklahoma’s offense look mortal.

Buy or sell: Buy.

As long as the Cornhuskers aren’t completely demoralized by the nature of their back-to-back losses, this team is good enough to beat anyone in the Big Ten West. But there continues to be one massive reason that running the table looks like it will be off the table.

Stock down

7. Nebraska’s special teams

From Blackshirts to a black hole.

After yanking William Przystup following a 7-yard punt, the Huskers turned to Daniel Cerni. He was not the answer, with a 34-yard line drive in the wrong direction that was returned 62 yards for a game-tying touchdown by Michigan State’s Jayden Reed late in the fourth quarter.

Given how well Nebraska’s defense was playing, a mere fair catch in the situation probably clinches the game for the Cornhuskers. Instead, pain.

Buy or sell: Set it on fire.

Nebraska special teams coordinator Mike Dawson also coaches the team’s outside linebackers, so you can’t say he’s stealing money. But the buck has to stop somewhere with a unit that continues to turn winnable games into losses. How many teams have allowed a punt return touchdown and a blocked PAT return for 2 points in consecutive games?

8. B1G West quarterbacks

Where do we even start with this group?

Let’s take a look at the stat line of a guy who won — Northwestern’s Ryan Hilinski.

He was 12 of 20 for 88 yards. According to ESPN, a QBR of 17.7.

That’s the whole thing.

How about Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan?

He went 5-for-13 for 59 yards and 2 interceptions in a 14-10 loss to Bowling Green for a QBR of 5. But at least it was higher than his jersey number (2).

Or maybe you’d prefer Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz.

He led the Badgers offense to 240 yards on 18 of 41 passing with 4 interceptions and a touchdown. According to QBR, he clocked in with an 18.2.

And somehow it could be argued that Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters was the most embarrassing of the bunch. Peters led with way as measured in QBR with a 34.6, but he finished 14 of 26 for 100 yards — an average of 3.8 yards per attempt. Illinois would be better off running out of the wildcat if it wants a quarterback to produce 3.8 yards per play.

Buy or sell: Sell.

Iowa is in the driver’s seat to win the West because the unspectacular play of Spencer Petras is absolutely enough to get the job done. Petras came into the game against Colorado State ranked 98th nationally in passer rating, but that makes him a regular Tom Brady compared to his division peers.

And consider this: None of these quarterbacks have even faced Iowa’s defense yet.

9. Bret Bielema’s decision-making

With Illinois facing 4th-and-2 from the Purdue 34 midway through the fourth quarter and nursing a 9-6 lead, Bielema had a couple of options.

He could try going for it, or he could trust James McCourt to make his second 51-yard field goal to extend the margin to 12-6. Bielema went with none of the above, ordering a punt that was downed at the Purdue 6.

But the football gods have a way of finding cowards, and Purdue responded with a 10-play, 94-yard drive that resulted in the game’s only touchdown.

Buy or sell: Sell.

The dedication to punting, on top of the insistence in starting the feeble Peters at quarterback, raises some questions about what Bielema is doing.

He needs to have his own roster to be fully judged and we won’t see that with new coaches until Year 3. But the optimism surrounding Illinois’ season-opening win over Nebraska has subsided in a big way.

10. Minnesota

PJ Fleck’s team rowed the boat into an iceberg Saturday.

Minnesota’s 14-10 loss to Bowling Green is easily the worst for a B1G team this season. The Falcons had lost 10 straight games against FBS opponents. The Gophers were favored by 30, having won a nation-high 21 straight home games against non-conference opponents.

For Minnesota, it was the worst loss since falling to FCS North Dakota State in 2011 — and this one is actually much worse, because all the Bison do is win championships.

Buy or sell: Buy.

This was a classic hangover game. The Gophers were coming off one of the most dominant performances against Colorado in the history of that proud program, and clearly anticipated the same outcome against Bowling Green.

This was a non-conference loss, and it looks like Minnesota may have a solid enough defense to be in the B1G West mix. Morgan’s performance is a major cause for concern, though. It’s unacceptable for a senior quarterback to have that kind of regression against a team like Bowling Green.

Alex Hickey

Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.