Ad Disclosure
The 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here. The season gets significantly more interesting with so many more teams now having access to the national championship. What’s the value of a loss? What’s the value of a conference title? What’s the value of a brutal schedule? What’s the value of an unbeaten season? Entering into this new era of postseason play, there’s simply no way of knowing how the CFP selection committee is going to rank teams head-to-head with so many different variables.
It’ll be a season to remember. We have teams that, on paper, look like they can be historically dominant. We have darkhorse teams waiting for their first CFP appearance. We have Group of 5 teams who finally have a shot to prove they belong. And, oh yeah, we have super conferences that stretch coast to coast.
In anticipation of one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory, here’s who I have making the CFP.
12. Memphis
In the 4 seasons prior to 2023, the American conference champion was the Group of 5’s representative in the New Year’s 6. Liberty took that spot last year, and had its doors blown clean off by Oregon. Liberty has another laugher of a schedule in 2024, and Boise State swings the other way with games against Oregon, Washington State, and Oregon State. Memphis, the favorite in the AAC, has a fourth-year starting quarterback in Seth Henigan, both of its top receivers back in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee (1,984 receiving yards in 2023), and added South Carolina’s leading rusher last season. Memphis might have a top-10 offense.
Memphis to make the CFP: +650 via Caesars
11. Missouri
Three starters on the offensive line return. The 2 gaps were filled by plug-and-play transfers. All 6 receivers who caught a pass last season return, including star Luther Burden. The top tight end is back. The ground game has to be rebuilt, but Missouri added 2 transfer backs who combined for 2,184 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. And quarterback Brady Cook is back to orchestrate everything. While there’s a fair amount of change on the defensive side of the football, a bump to the offense will make up for it. Preseason SP+ numbers from Bill Connelly suggest the Tigers will be favorites in 10 of their 11 FBS games, and double-digit favorites in 8 of 11. I’m counting on a step from Cook. Eli Drinkwitz is, too. This is the window for Mizzou; the SEC schedule might not be as favorable as this one for a long time.
Missouri to make the CFP: +180 via BetMGM
STATES: MA, OH, MD, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IN, IL, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, WV, VA
10. Miami
Readers will know I’m all in on Miami. I have the Hurricanes making the ACC title game in Year 3 under Mario Cristobal. Miami underperformed its expected win total last season — a marker for improvement. Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Miami is top-30 in returning production when factoring in transfers — another good sign. Cristobal killed it in the transfer portal and has put together excellent high school classes. Miami ranked 24th nationally last season in per-play offensive efficiency and 39th in scoring. With the offseason additions — quarterback Cameron Ward, running back Damien Martinez, wideout Sam Brown — I think Miami can manufacture a top-20 or even top-15 offense. With the schedule the way it is, that’ll be enough.
Miami to make the CFP: +220 via DraftKings
States: MD, MA, OH, NY, AZ, MI, KS, KY, TN, PA, NJ, VA, CO, IL, MI, WV, IA, WY, IN
GET THE APP9. Alabama
Everything about Kalen DeBoer’s first offseason has been encouraging. At every single step, DeBoer has differentiated himself from his predecessor. While still showing deference to the GOAT, DeBoer has made clear he isn’t trying to be Nick Saban 2.0. Alabama hired him to be DeBoer. It needs his impressive offensive mind. Alabama should be excellent on offense despite an entirely new cast of skill players. What quarterback Jalen Milroe may lack in arm talent compared to Michael Penix Jr., he makes up for it with mobility Penix simply did not have. DeBoer will make it work, and Milroe — who was just outstanding from November on last season — will look like an absolute star.
Alabama to make the CFP: +110 via Caesars
8. Penn State
Last year, PSU ranked second nationally in defensive efficiency, giving up just 4.2 yards per play. The defense led the nation in sacks (49) and first downs allowed (13.9 per game). It was second in tackles for loss (111). Thanks to 24 takeaways in 13 games, Penn State was also second in the country in turnover margin. A sizeable chunk of that defense went pro, and the coordinator left. James Franklin replaced Manny Diaz with a “head coach of the defense” — Tom Allen. At Indiana, Allen built stout defenses that had the plan but not always the talent. With the Nittany Lions, Allen can absolutely replicate what Diaz did a year ago. He has a game-wrecker in Abdul Carter and a stud linebacker in Kobe King. Penn State would have been a Playoff participant last season in spite of an offense that failed to inspire much confidence. If the Nittany Lions take a step on that side of the ball, they might have a shot against Ohio State. Even in the absence of such a step, they’ll win 10 games.
Penn State to make the CFP: -110 via bet365
21+ and present in IN, CO, IA, LA, NC, NJ, OH, VA. 18+ and present in KY. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
7. Ole Miss
There hasn’t been a better P5 team over the last 3 years than Lane Kiffin’s Rebels when compared to their expectations. Ole Miss doesn’t face Texas in the regular season, and it gets Oklahoma at home — where the Rebs are 19-2 over the past 3 years. Georgia comes to Oxford as well. The pass game got better. The run game will be fine. And I’m buying the moves made along the defensive front. The vision is clear: Ole Miss races out to early leads and then uses its newfound size on the defensive front to cause havoc in opposing backfields. Again, they won’t need to go unbeaten to make the CFP. They can lose a game (Georgia again?) and maybe even 1 more. Hit 10 wins in the SEC and you’re getting in. I’ll believe differently when I see it.
Ole Miss to make the CFP: -130 via FanDuel
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, KY, NC, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
GET THE APP6. Texas
Even in spite of the injury to Cedric Baxter Jr., I still think Texas makes the CFP. Maybe the Longhorns aren’t one of the first at-large bids, but they’ll still get in. If Steve Sarkisian turns to more 4-wide sets to counter the lack of running back depth. Red zone offense was an issue a year ago, but perhaps a more explosive pass game can help remedy that. Feels like a fair time to point out Texas added 2 dynamic playmakers in Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden from the transfer portal.
Texas to make the CFP: -215 via Caesars
5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded at every spot that matters. They have 2 of the 10 best running backs in the country. They have one of the best receiver rooms in the country. They boosted the offensive line with Alabama transfer center Seth McLaughlin. They added Chip Kelly to the staff to run the offense. (The prospect of Kelly calling plays for Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson is tantalizing.) The defense returns 8 full-time starters and added All-American safety Caleb Downs. The Buckeyes are making the CFP.
Ohio State to make the CFP: -650 via ESPN Bet
NJ, PA, WV, MI Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
4. Clemson
I have Clemson making the ACC Championship Game and beating Miami. Clemson is one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country, so I trust the floor to stay high despite all the turnover on that side. The offense brings back 7 linemen who started at least 2 games last year, its top rusher, its top tight end, and 4 of the top 5 wideouts. If the Cade Klubnik/Garrett Riley combination is any better, Clemson is the safest pick in the ACC.
Clemson to make the CFP: +200 via FanDuel
3. Utah
We’ve spent a good amount of time this offseason talking about the injury problems Utah had to navigate last season — and rightfully so. Missed games were a massive reason why Utah won just 8 games. But you probably already know about the pieces who missed time last year. What hasn’t been talked about enough this offseason is the acquisition of former USC and Arizona receiver Dorian Singer. In both of Utah’s Pac-12 title-winning seasons, the offense lacked a deep threat receiver, a guy that Cam Rising could throw a jump ball to and trust to make a play. They’ve had to be more methodical and lean more on their talented tight ends. Rising completed only 32% of his attempts that traveled at least 20 yards in 2022 and had 5 turnover-worthy plays on 54 passes, per PFF. He completed only 38% of his deep shots in 2021. Singer made 12 contested catches on a Pac-12-leading 24 contested targets during the 2022 season with Arizona. His 16.7 yards per catch that year ranked fifth among all Pac-12 players. The highlight reel was wonderful. Forget what happened last season at USC, where Singer was lost to a shuffle at receiver. At Utah, he’ll be featured much more. If they’re healthy, I like the Utes to win the Big 12. They’re old where you want to be old, deep all over the field, and appear to have solved the only real issue that presented itself during the Pac-12 title campaigns.
Utah to make the CFP: +260 via bet365
2. Oregon
Oregon returned major contributors (wideout Tez Johnson, edge Jordan Burch, tackles Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr.) and scored huge portal wins in areas of need (quarterback Dillon Gabriel, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, corner Jabbar Muhammad). I have Oregon finishing the regular season 11-1 and winning the Big Ten.
Oregon to make the CFP: -300 via DraftKings
1. Georgia
Georgia has to replace its top 2 rushers and 3 of its top 5 pass-catchers. That includes matchup nightmare Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey. Kirby Smart responded by adding Ben Yurosek from Stanford, Michael Jackson III from USC, Trevor Etienne from Florida, Colbie Young from Miami, and London Humphreys from Vandy. Yurosek was trapped in the Stanford offense; he’ll be a weapon for quarterback Carson Beck. Young was a contested catch machine at Miami. Humphreys averaged 20 yards a catch at Vanderbilt! Jackson flashed at USC multiple times. And they might all begin the season as the No. 2 option at their respective positions. Georgia could very well have the nation’s most prolific offense. The Bulldogs can be dangerous in 12, 11, or 10 personnel. Beck, the leading returning passer in the country, has every tool at his disposal.
Georgia to make the CFP: -600 via BetMGM
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.