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Who had a worse week: me or the Texas A&M quarterback? It’s a fair question.
Best Bets went 0-for-3. I liked Minnesota to beat North Carolina at home, but the offense’s best player sat out the game and the team’s kicker missed 2 field goals. I liked Texas A&M to control the line of scrimmage and give the Aggies a first-half lead and then Conner Weigman forgot how to play quarterback. I liked Oregon to roll against an FCS team and then an elite offense forgot how to score points.
Each Sunday, I’ll take a look back at what I got wrong from the week that just was. Ideally, we learn and get a firmer grasp of who these teams are going forward. That should make this a much shorter column.
For now, let’s look at the red.
Over 62.5 total points in Oregon-Idaho — MISS
No. 3 Oregon beat the Idaho Vandals 24-14 at home Saturday night. The Ducks
In each of its previous 5 games against FCS opponents, Oregon had averaged a halftime margin of plus-27 points. In 2 games against FCS teams under coach Dan Lanning, Oregon outscored the competition 92-14 in the first half. Oregon had just a 14-point lead on Idaho in the first half of its 2024 opener. For the first time in the Lanning era, Oregon looked pedestrian on the offensive line.
The Ducks ran 87 plays and scored just 24 points. Moving the ball wasn’t the issue. Consistency was lacking and that meant points were a struggle.
Oregon averaged 20.3 yards per point scored. Prior to Saturday’s game, the yards-per-point average in the Dan Lanning era was hovering around 12. (That number excludes the Georgia game in 2022… for obvious reasons. The YPP average that day was 104 and that would obliterate my curve.) In 2 prior games against FCS teams, Lanning’s offenses had scored at a 9 yards-per-point clip and an 8.6 yards-per-point clip.
The talent advantage was on full display. And it was, to a degree, on Saturday. Several factors were in play.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel had a fine day if you just looked at the box score. He went 41-for-49 passing with 380 yards and 2 scores. But after picking up a knock to his hand in the first half, Gabriel rarely fired downfield in the second half. Gabriel only attempted 2 passes beyond 20 yards all game. Plays were there; Gabriel just didn’t take shots. Oregon needs him to fire away to keep things rolling. Right now, this seems like a blip, but we’ll keep an eye on it against Boise State.
The offensive line had a poor day. The absence of Rimington Trophy-winning center Jackson Powers-Johnson was felt. Oregon was also missing its expected starter at right guard. Terrance Ferguson did well as a receiver but the tight ends weren’t good blocking. Combine that with a generally inconsistent showing from the right side of the line and Oregon’s day becomes a bit more understandable.
Oregon was 8-for-19 on third and fourth downs. It went 2-for-2 on short-yardage thirds but got stuffed twice on short-yardage fourths. The first was a fake punt for a tight end. On the other, a pulling weakside guard tripped over another Oregon player and missed his block. You can chalk that up to bad luck or poor execution and write it off, but Oregon simply hasn’t been good enough on fourth down for how aggressive it has been under Lanning. Idaho scored on a trick play immediately after that fourth-down stop.
This was the fourth consecutive Oregon game where the under hit. Oregon cleared the point total in its 2023 opener but since then, the under has hit in 10 of 14 games. Conversely, Oregon has been pretty good under Lanning in games immediately after poor performances.
Texas A&M -1.5 in the first half vs. Notre Dame — MISS
Aggie quarterback Conner Weigman had a QBR of 31.8 in Texas A&M’s 23-13 loss to Notre Dame. Iowa’s quarterback had a better QBR. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik had a better QBR in a game his team lost 34-3. Weigman completed just 12 of 30 pass attempts for 100 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
I expected the Notre Dame offense to struggle to move the football in the first half while a young, inexperienced offensive line tried to find its footing. For the most part, that happened. The Irish had just 149 yards of offense, went 1-for-6 on third downs, averaged 4.2 yards per play, and crossed the A&M 40 on their own only once across 6 first-half drives. (One other drive began at the Aggie 28 because of an interception.)
Notre Dame settled in once the game wore on. The offensive line found a groove and the Irish averaged 7 yards per play after halftime. From their perspective, a 10-point win in College Station was really encouraging.
Props to the Irish. They grew into the game. When the final whistle blew, Notre Dame had 198 rushing yards at 5.8 per carry and did not give up a sack. Very few expected that to happen against a really strong Aggie defensive line.
From an A&M, the Aggies should feel like they let this one get away. The defense played well enough to win, and certainly well enough in the first half to put the home side on the high side. After scoring on 2 of their first 3 possessions, the Aggies turned it over on 2 of the final 3 in the first half. They crossed the Notre Dame 40 only twice — and both of those possessions ended with long field goals.
Coach Mike Elko was captured on the broadcast screaming to his sideline to “run the f***ing ball” and said after the game that A&M didn’t do enough to put Weigman in positions to be successful. But even when Weigman wasn’t pressured, he was disappointing.
Where there was optimism about the quarterback position entering the season, there is now concern. Much of the optimism came from a terribly tiny sample size. Against Ole Miss on Oct. 29, 2022, he threw for 338 yards and 4 scores. Before a foot injury on Sept. 23, 2023, that knocked him out for the rest of the year, Weigman was on pace to throw for 3,636 yards and 32 touchdowns with a 70.5% completion rate and a 1.9% interception rate over a 12-game season.
He did not look like the same quarterback against the Irish. To be fair, Notre Dame’s pass defense does that to quarterbacks. Weigman went 1-for-6 with 2 picks on pass attempts beyond 9 yards from the line of scrimmage. That’s not good enough.
Minnesota moneyline vs. North Carolina — MISS
The Gophers only allowed 105 passing yards and 19 total points and lost at home. On the heels of consecutive 9-win seasons, PJ Fleck’s Minnesota team stumbled last season to a 6-7 record. There were troubling signs, but there wasn’t yet a reason to bail on Fleck. Thursday’s game against North Carolina was not a good sign.
The Gopher offense was run-oriented despite being without star running back Darius Taylor. If there’s been a common complaint in Minneapolis in recent years, it has been Fleck’s inability to put a complete offense on the field. The Gophers have had hulking offensive lines and outstanding tailbacks, but they’ve never been particularly imaginative or impressive when going to the air. That was supposed to change with Max Brosmer, a player who led the FCS in passing last season. Brosmer went 13-for-21 for 166 yards in his first FBS start.
In the game, Minnesota ranked in the 30th percentile for EPA per rushing attempt and in the eighth percentile for explosive play rate. The offensive line gave up 5 sacks, but Brosmer did some good things late when Minnesota needed him to make a play.
Minnesota lost by 2 at home and missed 2 field goals, including a 27-yarder in the first half.
That moment was damning. The Gophers had it first-and-goal from the 9. Brosmer fired incomplete on a first-down throw and then Fleck went into a shell. The Gophers ran it for a 1-yard loss on second down, then ran it again on third-and-goal from 10 yards out and got a yard. Dragan Kesich’s field goal attempt then bounced off the right upright.
North Carolina looked predictably uneven. And it appears transfer quarterback Max Johnson is done for the season after sustaining a leg injury. This loss could look uglier and uglier as the season goes on.
The problems in Minnesota’s opener were such that the return of Taylor can’t fix them on its own.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.