Ad Disclosure
We have reached the middle of the 2024 season. Most every team has played 6 games at this point. There are 11 remaining unbeaten teams and more than 20 or so teams that still have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff. This season has been ripe with upsets and variance, with the clock changes shortening games and defenses starting to exploit some advantages over offenses. Does a clear-cut national title contender emerge from a crowded field over the back half of the season? Or do we continue to see upsets?
Given everything we’ve seen, here are some midseason win totals I’m targeting this week.
Miami to go undefeated (+185 via DraftKings)
I included Miami in a May column highlighting 4 bets on teams to go unbeaten that felt too good to pass on at the time. Two of those 4 teams have already lost a game. Two remain — Miami and Oregon. As you can see below, I’m hedging on Oregon after what we’ve seen. But I still think Miami has the best chance of anyone to go the distance because of the overall weakness of the ACC.
That league is bad this season, with only 2 teams I believe can win a Playoff game. Miami is one of them, and Miami won’t play the other in the regular season. The remaining schedule includes road games against Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse as well as home games against Florida State, Duke, and Wake Forest. Louisville is slumping. Florida State is awful. Syracuse might be the toughest remaining challenge.
Entering into its bye week, Miami lost some of the steam it generated throughout the first 4 games of the season when it waxed anyone who stepped on the same field. Virginia Tech and Cal combined to average 6.6 yards per play against the Miami defense in 2 near-upsets. Miami’s first 4 opponents averaged 4.0 yards per play. If the Miami defense can cut out some of the chunk plays the last 2 teams gained (combined 20% explosive play rate) and the offense can take better care of the football, Miami will get back to the level of dominance it had in the first few weeks of the season. The Hurricanes don’t have another cross-country road trip on the docket, which is important. And even if the defense doesn’t shape up, I’d take Cam Ward in a shootout over any of the quarterbacks Miami has left to face.
Is there a better than 35% chance Miami wins its next 6 games? I say yes.
Oregon not to go undefeated (+125 via DraftKings)
After beating Ohio State by 1 point at home, the market now suggests it is more likely than not Oregon finishes the regular season unbeaten. Bill Connelly’s SP+ gives the Ducks a 31.6% chance to go 12-0. ESPN’s FPI only gives Oregon a 13.1% chance to win out. Oregon has games remaining against Purdue (this Friday on the road), Illinois at home, Michigan on the road, Maryland at home, Wisconsin on the road, and Washington off a bye.
In our preseason Crystal Ball series, I picked Oregon to beat Ohio State but not finish unbeaten. In that piece, I wrote that the Ducks would drop a game in Ann Arbor on Nov. 2. I was never that high on Michigan, and I’ve downgraded the Wolverines even more since the year started. Does Oregon lose to a team that can’t throw the football? Is Michigan Stadium that much of a leveler? I’m not sure. But I still don’t think a Big Ten team finishes the year unbeaten. The conference is too rugged and the season too long. There was enough there, I thought, to throw something behind Oregon in the preseason. Seeing what we’ve seen through the first half of the season — no one is doing well when traveling from one side of the conference to the other — getting plus value here feels like an opportunity.
Georgia under 9.5 wins (+114 via FanDuel)
How small has the delta between Georgia and the rest of the SEC grown? Georgia might lose to Texas in Austin in Week 8; in fact, that’s probably the more likely outcome. That puts the Dawgs at 5-2 going into November. They have a bye week before facing Florida on Nov. 2 and, from there, they face Ole Miss on the road, Tennessee at home, UMass at home, and Georgia Tech. Georgia might be close to a 2-score favorite against Florida. It won’t lose either of its last 2 games.
Does Ole Miss scare Georgia? Does Tennessee? This number ultimately comes down to how you feel about those 2 games. Georgia has not lost more than 2 games in conference play since 2016, but this also doesn’t look like the same Georgia we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Per Game on Paper, Georgia ranks 51st in passing success rate allowed and 75th in EPA per dropback. The Dawgs aren’t great at generating havoc on defense and their receivers have underwhelmed. Taking this under boils down to 2 assumptions: (1) Texas wins in Week 8, and (2) Georgia splits the Ole Miss/Tennessee stretch of games. I have Texas -3.5 this weekend, and I’d lean Ole Miss on Nov. 9, crazy as it seems. Both teams have defenses that are good enough to match what Georgia does offensively, and both pass games present problems.
Arizona State over 7.5 wins (-130 via Caesars)
One of the biggest overachievers of the season, relative to preseason expectations. The Sun Devils had a preseason win total of 4.5 and they won their fifth game in 6 tries last Friday night, beating previously-ranked Utah 27-19 at home. Kenny Dillingham’s second ASU squad has so far avoided the injury plague that ravaged his first team and proven to be quite formidable along the lines of scrimmage.
ASU ranks 11th nationally in EPA per rushing attempt and 14th in rushing success rate. Cam Skattebo (773 yards, 8 touchdowns) is the best back you haven’t heard about. Arizona State should be favored in at least 3 of its final 6 games — Oklahoma State on the road, UCF at home, Arizona on the road. The Cowboys and Wildcats are trending in a bad direction. ASU has the run defense to corral Central Florida, which might very well see this losing streak stretch to 5 in the coming weeks. And it remains to be seen if there’s another upset in these Sun Devils. I like the way the schedule sets up.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.