Beyond this season, Iowa can’t trust these results, despite Friday’s victory over Nebraska

Iowa’s formula for victory this season isn’t sustainable, despite the fact that it worked once again Friday in Lincoln, Neb.

If the word anomaly didn’t already exist, it would be coined for this Hawkeyes’ season. Things like this 10-2 romp through 2021 just don’t happen, and they won’t for Kirk Ferentz going forward.

Hopefully for Iowa fans, Ferentz already knew that and won’t let his team’s latest miracle — a 28-21 comeback victory over Nebraska — lead him into a false sense of security about the future.

For now, of course the Hawkeyes and their fans should celebrate — and root like crazy for Minnesota to beat Wisconsin on Saturday, an outcome that would put Iowa in the B1G championship game next Saturday in Indianapolis. “How” doesn’t matter right now, just “how many.” Iowa has a chance — with or without a B1G title shot — to finish as a top 10 team after bowl season.

That would be an incredible accomplishment.

In 23 years leading the program, Ferentz has squeezed the maximum yield out of the talent on hand time and time again. But what he has done this season can’t be chalked up simply as good coaching. In overcoming the limitations of his son’s offense, Ferentz, defensive coordinator Phil Parker and the rest of the staff have been miracle workers.

Just how anomalous has this season been? No one else in the country with such poor quarterback play and limited offense has anything close to a winning record or top 25 ranking. Iowa ranks among the 10 worst offenses of the 130 FBS teams, and it is the only one in the group that entered the weekend with less than 7 losses.

If center Tyler Linderbaum, a projected top 10 NFL Draft pick, leaves after this season, Brian Ferentz will face an even tougher task than he already does.

Iowa’s quarterbacks are barely functional, a fact that was confirmed again Friday as Spencer Petras replaced starter Alex Padilla and rallied the Hawkeyes with a lot of help from the Cornhuskers. That QB change was the reverse of the one from 3 weeks ago, when Padilla subbed in for an ailing Petras against Northwestern and then started against Minnesota and Illinois.

Petras, like Padilla in the first half, moved the offense enough to set up a couple of field goals. Even as Iowa rallied from a 21-6 deficit with 22 unanswered points, its lone touchdown by midway through the fourth quarter came on special teams, a blocked punt for a touchdown.

Neither Iowa quarterback looked better than Nebraska first-time starter Logan Smothers, especially through the first 3 quarters. Padilla went 6-for-14 for 76 yards and threw at least 2 passes that easily could have been picked. Even while doing enough to “lead” the comeback, Petras badly overshot an open Sam LaPorta deep in Nebraska territory to stall one of the FG drives. Petras did finally get the ball into the end zone, running it in to cap a 6-play, 76-yard drive that was all runs. He finished 7-of-13 for 102 yards.

Smothers, starting in place of injured Adrian Martinez, didn’t throw an incompletion until the fourth quarter and finished 16-of-22 for 199 yards. The 2020 4-star recruit also ran 24 times for 64 yards and looked poised an comfortable most of the way before his final throw, a final-minute INT thrown to no one in particular.

Iowa doesn’t have a QB on it roster with Smothers’ pedigree, let alone most of the other starters in the B1G, even with the league in a down year for quarterbacks. All of the Hawkeyes’ 4 scholarship QBs carry 3-star ratings — Petras from 2018, Padilla 2019, Deuce Hogan 2020 and Joey Labas 2021.

Petras finishes his second regular season as Iowa’s primary QB rated 10th in the B1G in passer rating among 12 qualifying players. Padilla has completed less than 50 percent of his passes and was bailed out by defensive and special teams scores last week against Illinois.

The offensive issues aren’t confined to the QB position. Outside of LaPorta, the team has few reliable pass-catchers, few guys who get open consistently, few who can break a big play.

Brian Ferentz better hope junior RB Tyler Goodson doesn’t leave early. His 157-yard day — including a key 55-yard run to set up Iowa’s only offensive TD — made the difference Friday and put Goodson over 1,000 yards for the season.

Iowa is plus-19 in turnovers in its 10 wins and has 22 interceptions on the season, statistics not likely to repeat even if Iowa plays its normal high-level defense again next year.

What Kirk Ferentz decides to do about the offense is anyone’s guess. Would he fire or demote his son? Would he bring in a quarterback via the transfer portal, which would be an unprecedented move?

He almost certainly will have to do something. He doesn’t get to face Nebraska — which had its own anomalous season under Scott Frost with an FBS record 9 single-digit losses — more than once a year.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.