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Since I last bared my soul with weekly missteps in Big Ten wagering, a total of 12 states have regulated sports gambling industries with seven more efforting a new revenue stream, undoubtedly from the death of most horse gamblers. The ones who weren’t swallowed up in the stacks and stacks of their losing betting slips were pummeled to death by their discarded wrist watches. Even Illinois got into the act with their own special brand of self-destruction that will allow their residents to bet on only Big3 basketball and weeknight games of jai alai.
But that’s not why you called. We’re here for Big Ten football. A conference derided for its offensive blandness and lack of foot speed on defense. The athletic version of network television. Laugh track not included and more often than not, not necessary. Same could be said for last year’s record against the spread or ATS for those of you who wish to talk shop with the uncle who seems to do his shopping at Falls Off The Back Of The Truck.
By the time I closed up shop for the year I assumed four aliases and experimented with mutton chops and a Van Dyke to avoid the scrutiny from my failures. The trench coat and rain boots were strictly a fashion-based decision. Cloaked missions were necessary because of the dire circumstances.
Things are different now. A new season is set to begin, my balance is at zero, and all bill collectors have been thrown off of my scent thanks to an over-reliance on cologne samples from the inside of magazines. Time to preen and peacock in the name of a new start.
All lines taken from mybookie.ag.
Note to Sticklers: lines may have shifted from the time of the column’s inception. Look that way, I see someone running with scissors!
The game: Ball State +17 vs. Indiana (Lucas Oil Stadium)
The play: Ball State
The logic:The Cardinals enter the 2019 season with a record of 3-0 ATS all-time under head coach Mike Neu in season openers. Ball State returns nine starters on defense and seven or eight on offense depending how many two tight end sets they employ on Saturday. None of the returners contributed to remarkable numbers on either side of the ball, but experience is there to hang around with Indiana. Though the Hoosiers tempo is a worry when betting against them since Indiana’s offense averaged a play every 22.8 seconds, tops in the Big Ten last season, it will square with the hiccups redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Penix will experience against an attacking defense. Throw-in the in-state friction between the two schools and Ball State wants to make sure the score stays under 17.
The game: Florida Atlantic +27.5 vs. Ohio State o/u 63.5
The play: Over
The logic: One year ago, Ohio State fans dug their feet in with defiance that the Buckeyes would roll just fine, thank you, without Urban Meyer who was out on suspension. I mention the suspension because it’s commonplace to mention Meyer’s absence from last season without bringing up the reason he missed time. He was suspended.
In the midst of his suspension Ohio State’s attempted mentality was a variation of “us against the world/chip-on-the-shoulder.” Both are hard sells when you’re the preeminent program in the conference.
Meyer isn’t coming back after three games this season. Justin Fields is under center. I wouldn’t characterize Ohio State in a panic but a hurried touch of anxiety. Quickest way to temper that worry is to leave Fields out there and give him the chance to put together scoring drives. We’ll forget the defense for now because few worry about the defense when it’s much easier to identify an individual worry (Fields in this case) and whittle their fingernails to prisoner of war levels.
The game: Northwestern +6.5 vs. Stanford
The play: Northwestern
The logic: How are you celebrating the four-year anniversary of the cherished Body Clock game? Frequent trips to the bathroom in the middle of the night do not count.
As much as the game conjures up warm memories of one of the most ridiculous excuses of all time, the Saturday afternoon matchup on the Farm, where no body clocks will be harmed or altered in anticipation of the game is another opportunity for Pat Fitzgerald to do what Pat Fitzgerald does.
A perpetual punching-up type, the Northwestern head coach always seems to give the favorites hell. The Wildcats were 6-0-1 ATS last year in games they were underdogs. This is a bet on Pat Fitzgerald more than it is a bet on Northwestern.
Status on the card: After a troublesome end that had me pairing in mixed tag matches with three-legged dogs and feral hogs in the basement of American Legion Halls, I rededicated myself to making it back on the main roster. Running the ropes and consuming raw eggs by the carton, I’m ready for Week One.
Nick is a writer for saturdaytradition.com. Your overuse of GIFs forced him away from Twitter. He removed himself from consideration in the Vanderbilt heading coaching search.