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Bucks vs. Suns NBA Finals Betting Picks (July 6, 2021)
By Bob Wankel
Published:
The Phoenix Suns host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight in Game 1 of what is a truly unexpected NBA Finals pairing. Chris Paul will look to lead the Suns to their first-ever NBA Championship, while Milwaukee looks to win its first title since all the way back in 1974.
In what figures to be an extremely entertaining series with various betting angles in play, let’s jump into our two favorite Bucks vs. Suns NBA Finals Game 1 picks.
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With the stage set for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, let’s take a look at the current Game 1 odds:
| TEAM | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks | +6 (-107) | +205 | O 218.5 (-112) |
| Suns | -6 (-114) | -250 | U 218.5 (-109) |
While Phoenix enters as a fairly significant favorite in the series opener, we’re turning our attention to the props market for our two top picks this evening.
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Khris Middleton Over 41.5 Total Points, Rebounds & Assists (FanDuel Sportsbook -114)
Middleton has taken over for Milwaukee with Giannis sidelined.
The Olympian posted a 26-point, 13-rebound, eight-assist effort in Game 5 of the Atlanta series, following it up with 32 points, four rebounds, and seven assists in the Game 6 clincher.
He played a combined 86 minutes in those two games and has been on the floor for 40+ in each of the team’s last nine playoff games that were not blowouts. Expect his workload to be similar once again tonight with Antetokounmpo likely to sit. Thankfully, those long minutes should bear a fruitful statline for the Bucks’ star, as his size and style are highly reminiscent of another 6’7”+ wing that recently scorched the Suns, Paul George. George averaged just over 41 minutes per game in the Suns-Clippers series, a number Middleton is sure to hit tonight, producing point-rebound-assist totals of 43, 38, 50, 45, 60, and 32.
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GET THE APPThat average of 44.7 per game is encouraging for those backing Middleton to do something similar tonight. Middleton has averaged 23.4 points, eight rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game in the playoffs, even with Antetokounmpo eating up large amounts of the available stats in those categories. Finding five more total in those three areas from the generous chunk Antetokounmpo leaves behind should not be too much to ask.
In the two games against Phoenix during the regular season, both of which were monster performances for Antetokounmpo, Middleton still mustered one 26-point, seven-rebound, five-assist night in Milwaukee to go with an 11-assist effort on this court.
Bobby Portis Over 9.5 Rebounds (FanDuel Sportsbook +112)
Bobby Portis continues to prove his great worth to this Milwaukee Bucks team, stepping in to help fill the void left by Antetokounmpo.
Portis’ height (6’10”), athleticism, and hustle make him a fantastic big minutes option for Milwaukee while its brightest star is sidelined. When Brook Lopez is on the floor with Portis, Ayton will most likely shadow Lopez, who will surely then go to the wings to spread the floor.
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This will open the lane for Portis to crash the boards with his massive height advantage over a Suns group that often runs four guys 6’6” or under. When Lopez sits, the Bucks will likely run the floor with their smaller, more agile lineup. This again leaves Portis the opportunity to grab some easy boards, particularly as Ayton struggles to run the floor.
Portis has yet to top this rebound prop number this postseason and only did so 13 times during the regular season. However, his minutes are sure to be extensive tonight with the fantastic mismatch he creates whenever he is on the court against Phoenix.
In the last two games without Antetokounmpo, Portis logged 32 and 36 minutes, significantly more than the 16.7 he had averaged with Antetokounmpo in the lineup during the playoffs.
Even against an Atlanta team that offered a bevy of 6’8” and 6’9” wings that could contend with Portis on the glass, he produced nine and eight rebounds in those two outings. In his one game on this court during the regular season, Portis ripped down nine boards in just 19 minutes of action. Expect another big output here tonight.
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Bob Wankel is a credentialed baseball writer for Crossing Broad where he covers the Phillies. A graduate of Monmouth University in NJ, Bob also covers the legalized sports betting industry. Past stops include NFL Films and a decade-plus stint in education.