Crystal Ball: Predicting every game on Maryland’s schedule in 2021

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Maryland. We’ll stay with the B1G East all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team.

If there was a team that I really wanted to see more of in 2020, it was Maryland.

The Terrapins played the fewest number of games in the Big Ten last season, and they were as up-and-down as any team in the league. They beat 2 teams that finished in the top 10 in 2019 in Minnesota and Penn State, and they also lost by 40 points to Northwestern and by 3 to Rutgers.

The much-needed context, of course, is that the Terrapins were hit hard by COVID (which is why they only played 5 games). Just as Maryland looked primed to make a major move with an impressive win as a 27-point underdog at Penn State, the Terrapins had to wait 3 weeks for their next game. They looked understandably flat against Indiana, and all they had left was Rutgers.

The good news is that aside from running back Jake Funk, Maryland has virtually everyone back, headlined by sophomore QB Taulia Tagovailoa, the Alabama transfer and younger brother of Tua.

Can Maryland take another step in Mike Locksley’s third season?

Does any B1G team have a wider range of outcomes?

As mentioned above, the only consistent part of Maryland last season was that it was inconsistent. There was a valid excuse for that in 2020; there won’t be one in 2021.

I could see Maryland finishing as high as third in the Big Ten East. I could also see it finishing dead last, behind even Michigan State and Rutgers. On Oct. 24 last year, Maryland accumulated just 207 total yards. Only 6 days later, Maryland racked up 675. Tagovailoa went from 94 passing yards with 3 INTs, to 394 passing yards with 3 TDs (and 2 more rushing) in just 6 days.

The East is stacked at the top with Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State all ranked, but after that, there are major question marks with Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State. The Terrapins get 4 of their 5 toughest games (Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Michigan) at home. Plus, the Terrapins already beat Penn State last year, so why couldn’t they finish above the Nittany Lions in the standings?

Why is the ceiling so high?

For one, Maryland actually knows what it is doing at QB. Look around the Big Ten; not many others really feel great about their QB situation. Of Maryland’s 9 B1G opponents, I would say 3 (Ohio State, Minnesota and Indiana) feel comfortable going into this season with their QB. That’s a lot of games where the opponent could be making a switch.

Tagovailoa obviously isn’t perfect and no “sure thing” himself. He did throw 7 INTs last season. But look a little closer. You can throw out the Northwestern game (3 INTs); it was his first career start, and it’s the same defense that picked off Justin Fields 3 times. You can also throw out the Indiana game; it was Maryland’s first game in 3 weeks and the Terps were understandably off, plus Indiana led the country in interceptions per game. That leaves you with 2 games to go off. Tagovailoa was sensational against Minnesota with 5 total TDs, and he was terrific on the road against Penn State, throwing for 282 yards and 3 TDs on only 26 pass attempts.

Tagovailoa’s top targets are back, too. Dontay Demus is an All-B1G candidate, and former 5-star recruit Rakim Jarrett showed flashes as a true freshman (like those 2 TDs at Penn State). The arrow is pointing up for this offense.

Then again, it’s not hard to see this going badly

The Big Ten isn’t a conference where you win in shootouts every week. This is a league in which you have to grind out drives and get stops. Is that really something Maryland is equipped to do?

Maryland has some talented players, but a lot of them are young, and getting only 5 games last season doesn’t exactly season them for a 9-game Big Ten season. Taking into account last season was a free year of eligibility, the Terrapins could have 9 freshmen and sophomores starting on offense and 7 on defense. When you figure that there are other teams in the Big Ten with fifth-year and sixth-year seniors starting on offense, that can make a difference.

That said, Mike Locksley and his staff are recruiting their tails off, and the 2021 class was all about defense. Maryland has 5 blue-chip recruits in the 2021 class, and they all play defense. That includes 5-star linebacker Terrence Lewis, who could start as a true freshman. Safety Nick Cross, a high 4-star recruit in the 2019 class, leads an above-average secondary.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. West Virginia (W)

Either way, I won’t read too much into this game. Maryland in recent seasons has looked great in beating Texas, and then fared terribly in the Big Ten. Last season, Maryland looked awful against Northwestern but then beat Minnesota and Penn State the next 2 weeks.

My gut feeling in this one, though, is that Maryland comes out firing and deals another blow to the poor Big 12.

Week 2: vs. Howard (W)

A great chance for some of these younger players to get some experience since Maryland has won the last 2 meetings by a combined 131-13.

Week 3: at Illinois (W)

No one quite knows what to expect out of Illinois. Bret Bielema has an excellent track record in the Big Ten, and Illinois has a very old team, thanks to the free year of eligibility. But this game will be early in Bielema’s first year, and the Illini were arguably the B1G’s worst team in 2020. I’ll take the talent over the experience.

Week 4: vs. Kent State (W)

This will be a popular upset pick, as the Golden Flashes have a terrific QB in Dustin Crum. But riding the early-season momentum, Maryland will win this one.

Week 5: vs. Iowa (L)

After a very favorable early season schedule, it starts to get tricky for Maryland starting now. Iowa should be one of the best teams in the conference, a level Maryland can’t quite get to just yet.

Week 6: at Ohio State (L)

This would’ve been an interesting game last year, had it been played. Not because Maryland would’ve won, but because Ohio State had its weakest secondary in years, and Tagovailoa could’ve gone off.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Minnesota (L)

This is a rematch from one of the best B1G games of 2020, which Maryland won 45-44. Tagovailoa’s brilliance in this game (he showed the full complement of skills) is a big driver of the hype train for 2021. I think Minnesota’s defense will be slightly improved, and with the game being at TCF Bank, I give the Gophers a slight edge.

Week 9: vs. Indiana (L)

Maryland didn’t get a fair shot at Indiana last year, as it caught the Hoosiers after having not played for 3 weeks. The rust showed. Indiana should be every bit as good as last year, though, and that’s a gap that Maryland hasn’t yet closed.

Week 10: vs. Penn State (L)

One of the most shocking results of the 2020 season was Maryland, a 27-point underdog, steamrolling Penn State at Beaver Stadium. Penn State will be surely be ready this time around.

Week 11: at Michigan State (W)

The Spartans are rebuilding, so Maryland should have a significant talent advantage, as it has recruited much better over the last few years.

Week 12: vs. Michigan (L)

I do think Maryland is going to pull an upset at home, and I don’t know which one. Could it be this game? Definitely, especially if Michigan has similar QB issues to last season. But I think the Wolverines will be highly motivated this year.

Week 13: at Rutgers (W)

If Tagovailoa played in this game last year, I think Maryland wins. Instead, the Terrapins lost by 3. This could potentially be a game in which both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility. With both programs seemingly on the rise, it should be a game that these teams are taking seriously even with it being so late in the season. There could be a lot of young players on the field for both teams.

2021 projection: 6-6, 5th in B1G East

After saying Maryland could finish as high as 3rd and as low as 7th in the East, predicting 5th in the East is kind of a hedge, huh? But 6-6 would absolutely be a positive step for the Terrapins, who haven’t been to a bowl game since 2016.

I’m betting that the limited action we saw of Maryland in 2020 will carry over into 2021 and that the talent they have accumulated will start to show.