Crystal Ball: Predicting every game on Michigan State’s schedule in 2021

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Michigan State. This concludes our weeklong look at the B1G East. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team.

There weren’t many coaches dealt a tougher hand than Mel Tucker.

Sure, he willingly left Colorado for Michigan State well after the normal coaching carousel finished (because Big Ten programs are printing cash), and he knew the disastrous state of the Spartans program, left in shambles by Mark Dantonio.

If there was ever a coach who absolutely didn’t need a pandemic to cancel spring practice and limit in-person contact, it was Tucker. First-year coaches are always up against it, but when you are hired so far into offseason workouts and a pandemic shuts down the country a month later, it’s nearly impossible to be competitive — especially against an all-conference schedule.

Greg Schiano was hired 71 days before Tucker. Think about how much further along the Scarlet Knights were by the time Tucker took over. And it showed in that season opener when Rutgers, an 11-point underdog, won by 11 at Spartan Stadium.

Tucker’s 1st year was marked by incredible highs (shocking upsets of rival Michigan and unbeaten Northwestern) and brutal lows (ending Rutgers’ 21-game B1G losing streak, losing by 42 against Iowa and 40 vs. Ohio State). It was all understandable considering the circumstances, and it was admirable the way Tucker didn’t make excuses at Big Ten Media Days, insisting it wasn’t Year 0 like so many termed it.

In that case, though, Year 2 is here, and Tucker faces an uphill battle.

The QB competition

Tucker is being coy about who his starting QB will be, Temple transfer Anthony Russo or redshirt freshman Payton Thorne. Considering how desperate Tucker will be to nab a few wins after a tough first season, my guess is he’ll go with the 6th-year senior.

It’s hard to go from a young player to a veteran after a few losses, because then what are you really building toward? It makes much more sense to start with an experienced QB and move to a younger player with an eye on the future.

The caveat, of course, is if Thorne goes out there and shows that he’s clearly the better player. Then, the choice is easy.

Reports out of camp thus far have indicated that the battle is pretty close. Advantage Russo.

The transfers are going to play a big role

In an effort to be competitive quicker, Michigan State added 15 scholarship transfers in the offseason, an extensive roster makeover rivaled only by Tennessee. And many are coming in with high-level backgrounds, as 12 are from Power 5 programs and 6 were 4-star recruits.

Running back Kenneth Walker, who racked up 13 rushing TDs for Wake Forest last season, is going to play a huge role in the backfield, as will Auburn transfer Harold Joiner. They are welcome additions for a running back group that scored only 1 TD last year and was part of a rushing attack that ranked 122nd nationally. Tackle Jarrett Horst, a transfer from Arkansas State who had offers from Texas, Florida State, Baylor and Oklahoma out of the portal, will help that rushing attack, too.

Michigan State’s secondary will be loaded with transfers, as Ronald Williams (Alabama), Chester Kimbrough (Florida), Marqui Lowery Jr. (Louisville) and Khary Crump (Arizona) will battle for playing time right away.

Really, everywhere except the interior of the line on both sides of the ball is going to have competition from transfers.

Is Tucker’s message resonating?

A good way to gauge the momentum of a program is on the recruiting trail. Is it the end-all? Of course not. Tennessee was a great reminder of that.

But so far, yeah, Tucker is crushing it.

I really believe that Big Ten schools should be getting the best players in their state, because there is a certain level of pride that goes into playing for your home-state team that players from halfway around the country just don’t understand. And Tucker’s message is clearly resonating in Michigan.

In the 2022 class, he has commitments from 3 of the top 8 players in the state. In 2021, Michigan State didn’t have any of the top 15. In 2020, the Spartans had none of the top 13. So it’s a great sign that Tucker is winning at home.

Michigan State’s 2022 class features 4 4-star recruits and ranks 5th in the Big Ten. After a couple down years on the recruiting trail, that’ll be a much-needed influx of talent to a program lacking it.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Northwestern (W)

Is a repeat of last year’s stunner on the horizon? I’m going to say yes. Maybe part of this is a knee-jerk reaction to some tough injury news. Northwestern is facing some early-season adversity after starting running back Cam Porter went down with a season-ending injury in camp, and I think it’ll take some time for the Wildcats to settle in. Maybe a 2020 hangover is in store? I like Michigan State’s transfer experience to pay off right away.

Week 2: vs. Youngstown State (W)

The Penguins don’t pose much of a threat after going 1-6 last spring. But this will be an important early-season game for Michigan State, if only to get all these transfers on the same page.

Week 3: at Miami (L)

It’s not ideal for a team looking to build chemistry to have 2 of its first 3 on the road against teams that finished in the Top 25 last year, but that’s the reality for the Spartans. This game against No. 14 Miami and D’Eriq King will be a great test for a retooled defense that allowed 38 or more points in 4 of 7 games last season. I’m guessing it’ll be a tough trip to Florida and that the Spartans will return home with plenty to work on.

Week 4: vs. Nebraska (L)

This game is a little over a month away, and this pick could look terrible by then. Nebraska seems to be in perpetual free-fall, and Tucker seems to be building this thing the right way. But the Huskers have more talent than the Spartans and a 4th-year starter at QB, which should help early in the season.

Week 5: vs. Western Kentucky (W)

It’s too bad this game wasn’t played in 2015, when the Hilltoppers went 12-2 and finished ranked No. 24. That was the year the Spartans made the College Football Playoff. Both programs have obviously taken more than a few steps back since those days.

Week 6: at Rutgers (L)

Rutgers is ahead of Michigan State in terms of the rebuild, as it showed last season with much closer games. The Scarlet Knights won 3 games and had 3 more that were 1-possession affairs. While that doesn’t count in the record, it illustrates that Rutgers is further along. Oh, and the fact that Rutgers won convincingly at Spartan Stadium.

Week 7: at Indiana (L)

This is a tough game for a Michigan State offense that got shut out by the Hoosiers last season while finishing with just 191 yards. This Michigan State offense has potential, with Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed and (hopefully) Ricky White playing big roles. But Indiana is primed for a big season behind Michael Penix Jr. and can win a shootout or a slugfest.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Michigan (L)

For all the pain Spartans fans endured in 2020, this one game last season may have made it worth it. Maybe. Beating Michigan never gets old, I’m sure. I honestly don’t know what to expect from the Wolverines, other than Jim Harbaugh calling this their rivalry game. I think Michigan will be ready this time around, though I’d bet it’ll be close.

Week 10: at Purdue (W)

Here’s a good chance for Michigan State to show off that improved secondary. Alabama transfer Ronald Williams should be ready for a chance to take on Purdue star David Bell after he had to chase around DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle at practice with the Crimson Tide. If the Spartans can run the ball and neutralize George Karlaftis, I think they win.

Week 11: vs. Maryland (L)

Who will be the QB at this stage of the season? And will it be the same QB who started the season? I’m guessing not. Whoever it is, this may be a tough day at the office as Maryland’s secondary is sneaky good.

Week 12: at Ohio State (L)

The days when Michigan State could challenge Ohio State in the East are long, long gone. Maybe someday. But the Buckeyes are just in another stratosphere.

Week 13: vs. Penn State (L)

Another challenging season comes to a close against a Penn State team still with an outside chance at a New Year’s Six Bowl. Thorne looked great against the Nittany Lions last season, but Penn State should be improved on the defensive side of the ball in 2021.

2021 projection: 4-8, 7th in B1G East

No one is expecting a bowl appearance from Michigan State in Tucker’s second season, and this much losing may test the patience of fans. I only have the Spartans for 2 B1G wins after they already got 2 last year.

To me, the key metric will be Michigan State’s point differential. The Spartans were outscored by an average of 17.1 points per game, which was 116th in the country. Far too often, they just weren’t competitive. And when they were, they won. That 2020 squad hit its ceiling.

So while the wins may not come this season, a good sign of progress would be playing in close games and getting the experience to hopefully lead to a bowl appearance in 2022.